Pretty much.
Any way I look at it, there's more upside, but it's approaching a confluence of elements that would more than likely produce a steep pullback. 260-265 close of the next week then maybe drop hard the last week of December.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Any way I look at it, there's more upside, but it's approaching a confluence of elements that would more than likely produce a steep pullback. 260-265 close of the next week then maybe drop hard the last week of December.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Looks like really low volume now, you would think they'd make a move to push down at some point, unless the goalposts got moved in the meantime...
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
no, just a little push needed. volumes so low. Bear flag already indicated this, now we are completing a little H&S targeting below $250,- easy-peasy.
Even a bit above $247.50 would not surprise me for a close. The biggest OPEX in history with such low volumes, even below average
, upward pressure being to low today.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Got to admit Tesla held up pretty well today so far. It's gearing up for that pump that's projected next week.
Based on the feedback from the team I guess a straddle -250P/+245P and -265C/+270C should be safe
Or safer with a farther OTM Puts legs -235P/+230P.
The continuing internal battle balance between profits vs risk.....
Based on the feedback from the team I guess a straddle -250P/+245P and -265C/+270C should be safe
Or safer with a farther OTM Puts legs -235P/+230P.
The continuing internal battle balance between profits vs risk.....
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
I might add the 0DTE SPY already is fixed (between 269 and 270) with some headroom to the upside.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Probably explains why we're not heading to 250
I can't hang around waiting and playing chicken until 5 minutes before the bell either, brokers and markets get issues at that moment, so will look to close out the 100x -c250's now. Had hoped they would expire, but don't think it's gonna happen
Edit: BTC 100x -c250 @$2.1 (net +$1.05) -> not what I was looking for, but better than a poke in the eye
$14900 realised loss for the week - tbh I consider that a result given everything
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I'd count that as a win. Premiums have been on the decline and it isn't dissimilar to what happened prior to the hertz announcement. I got used to making a certain amount each week and as premiums declined I found myself taking more aggressive positions until the hertz news broke. Went from generating $20k in premiums weekly to a $1M loss as I feared no end in sight and didn't want to roll and fight a losing battle.
One of the things I've tried to keep in mind is how Tesla will go through long periods of high volatility and then have long periods of low volatility. When volatility and the corresponding premiums drop I have to ask myself would I rather sit it out sometimes and have zero premiums for weeks or months at a time, or do I want to take more risks and potentially face larger losses if I calculate the direction of the move incorrectly. My two cents anyway.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Indeed, we make good money every week, get more confident, take more risk, then the rug gets pulled. It's how you react and recover those moments that makes all the difference IMO
Now I do still have 100x -c240 in play for 12/22, but they are covered by LEAPs and shares, so time worries on those and I can start focusing on sorting those out from here...
And look at TSLA go into close, rebought my calls just in time...
And: STO 100x 12/22 -c260 @$2.9, good enough...
And this is where myb theory of 100x -p & -c weekly for $1 premium, 95% of the time will expire and the one time they don't you'll probably be able to roll them without problem
$20k per week, $1m per year...
I really need to try and implement this in 2024, just try it and see how it pans-out
Unexpected close there. We're sitting just under the 2 year trend line. I see quite a few Twitter accounts that focus on charts that think the stock moves to 270'ish area and then pulls back hard (along with assumption that macro's pull back hard too). Idk....if the 2 yr downtrend line gets broken and closes above, I have a hard time seeing the FOMO rally stopping at 270, even if macros pull back some.
One side note, the company I work for is still a pre-IPO company ( as practically every company that planned on IPO'ing in 2022
) so I get some insight through the private brokage I use when it comes to the activity level of the private market. And so far at least, the private market has not followed the public market on the rally, even in the past few days, but definitely not over the past 1-2 months.
Now the private market will always lag the public market to some degrees since it's the riskiest of the two investment wise, but I would have expected a strong rebound in the private market off of the Fed dovish pivot. So far nothing. So I do wonder if there's one last decent size rug pull that is ahead of us that big money on the sidelines is expecting before flooding the private market with inflows.
Could be nothing and simply the lag factor for the private market hasn't kicked in soon or could be a sign of something else. Could also be near term scenario where large caps either stagnate for a couple months or sell off somewhat as investors take profits and pour them back into small cap and private investments. Will be interesting to see how TSLA gets treated in that scenario. Yes it's a big cap name....but it's also still down like 35% from its ATH
One side note, the company I work for is still a pre-IPO company ( as practically every company that planned on IPO'ing in 2022
) so I get some insight through the private brokage I use when it comes to the activity level of the private market. And so far at least, the private market has not followed the public market on the rally, even in the past few days, but definitely not over the past 1-2 months.Now the private market will always lag the public market to some degrees since it's the riskiest of the two investment wise, but I would have expected a strong rebound in the private market off of the Fed dovish pivot. So far nothing. So I do wonder if there's one last decent size rug pull that is ahead of us that big money on the sidelines is expecting before flooding the private market with inflows.
Could be nothing and simply the lag factor for the private market hasn't kicked in soon or could be a sign of something else. Could also be near term scenario where large caps either stagnate for a couple months or sell off somewhat as investors take profits and pour them back into small cap and private investments. Will be interesting to see how TSLA gets treated in that scenario. Yes it's a big cap name....but it's also still down like 35% from its ATH
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Unexpected close there. We're sitting just under the 2 year trend line. I see quite a few Twitter accounts that focus on charts that think the stock moves to 270'ish area and then pulls back hard (along with assumption that macro's pull back hard too). Idk....if the 2 yr downtrend line gets broken and closes above, I have a hard time seeing the FOMO rally stopping at 270, even if macros pull back some.
One side note, the company I work for is still a pre-IPO company ( as practically every company that planned on IPO'ing in 2022
Now the private market will always lag the public market to some degrees since it's the riskiest of the two investment wise, but I would have expected a strong rebound in the private market off of the Fed dovish pivot. So far nothing. So I do wonder if there's one last decent size rug pull that is ahead of us that big money on the sidelines is expecting before flooding the private market with inflows.
Could be nothing and simply the lag factor for the private market hasn't kicked in soon or could be a sign of something else. Could also be near term scenario where large caps either stagnate for a couple months or sell off somewhat as investors take profits and pour them back into small cap and private investments. Will be interesting to see how TSLA gets treated in that scenario. Yes it's a big cap name....but it's also still down like 35% from its ATH
That's what Tom Lee has been saying that mega caps will lag and small caps will go up big time in 2024. But Tesla has not gone up like other mega caps which are at AH
. Is there any small caps that you guys follow that you would buy right now?
I ended up closing my $247.5 and $250's for what I consider a small lost and I glad I didn't waited until the very end of the day.
phew, what a morning!
I have 10x -250p/-260c open for next week. Keeping fingers crossed for the ride!
I have 10x -250p/-260c open for next week. Keeping fingers crossed for the ride!
SPY and QQQ seem a bit over-extended and due for a pull-backUnexpected close there. We're sitting just under the 2 year trend line. I see quite a few Twitter accounts that focus on charts that think the stock moves to 270'ish area and then pulls back hard (along with assumption that macro's pull back hard too). Idk....if the 2 yr downtrend line gets broken and closes above, I have a hard time seeing the FOMO rally stopping at 270, even if macros pull back some.
One side note, the company I work for is still a pre-IPO company ( as practically every company that planned on IPO'ing in 2022
Now the private market will always lag the public market to some degrees since it's the riskiest of the two investment wise, but I would have expected a strong rebound in the private market off of the Fed dovish pivot. So far nothing. So I do wonder if there's one last decent size rug pull that is ahead of us that big money on the sidelines is expecting before flooding the private market with inflows.
Could be nothing and simply the lag factor for the private market hasn't kicked in soon or could be a sign of something else. Could also be near term scenario where large caps either stagnate for a couple months or sell off somewhat as investors take profits and pour them back into small cap and private investments. Will be interesting to see how TSLA gets treated in that scenario. Yes it's a big cap name....but it's also still down like 35% from its ATH
TSLA maybe just catching up a bit, I mean has been lots of good news that hasn't moved the stock up at all (yeah I know dl...), and we have a likely very good P&D incoming to start the year, how good, don't know, but then it will be all eyes on the margins, which might have improved a little, and 2024 guidance, which is going to be less than the normal 50% cagr. This was alredy communicated of course in the Q3 earnings, but restating it will impact the stock, I'm sure
Rising wedge into blow off top has been the playbook since 194.Strong close without a bigger pullback. Seems like we won the door behind prize #2
BTW, do you have access to real-time open interest or did you just infering it from the daily volumes?
Even the c255 had 240k trades today
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