Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[SpeedyEddy]

I think another unthinkable can run us all over. Not only because of sentiment, but look at all the putselling in other stocks, The question looks to be : "which will we call the black swan this time". So if macro something breaks, $TSLA will not be spared "because it already got hit before". When that happens, we will compare this toNov 2022 till Jan 8 2023 in hindsight.
We left a gap down of course, as always, lately, the day after earnings as @Jim Holder pointed out, but I will not be surprised if we leave that for now.
177 is almost a certain goal now (making MA4x a solid theory, even confirming that it can run in the opposite direction first, even a month long, but within 3 months after MA4x convergence (MA365,220,50,20) you ALWAYS will have a minimum of 25% movement either way (which from 236 would be 177)
Writing calls now and hoping MaxPain will hold SP above $185 tomorrow where my nearest -P lies.

 

[BornToFly]

Well, I should have closed some positions yesterday for only a small loss.
I have 137X -210P for tomorrow

150X +170/-195P BPS for March 19
150X +200P for March 19.

The -210P was originally sold to generate money to help pay for opening the March +200P. Now I can't roll the -210 under the +200, so the +200 no longer helps close the BPS.

I could have closed the entire lot for under 20K yesterday. Now I'm looking at 155K loss.

I really need the SP to climb back up to 200....

I guess I can close the 1/26 -210Ps and March +200P later today for a small loss, and hope on the March 170/195 BPS....

 

[DaBooster]

is 215 Max Pain irrelevant ?

 

[OrthoSurg]

I find hard to cut losses on losing positions when it gaps down 9% at opening

To add insult to injury my windshield cracked this morning from automatic preheating of the car every morning to depart at 7AM

 

[tivoboy]

Well, I should have closed some positions yesterday for only a small loss.
I have 137X -210P for tomorrow

150X +170/-195P BPS for March 19
150X +200P for March 19.

The -210P was originally sold to generate money to help pay for opening the March +200P. Now I can't roll the -210 under the +200, so the +200 no longer helps close the BPS.

I could have closed the entire lot for under 20K yesterday. Now I'm looking at 155K loss.

I really need the SP to climb back up to 200....

It’s not happening between now and tomorrow.

 

[Yoona]

in the last earnings week (2023-10-20), we are

• red after 1 week -2.21%
• green after 2 weeks 3.76%
• green after 3 weeks 1.25%
• green after 4 weeks 10.52%

 

[BornToFly]

We are below the October lows...., after a record year of almost $100 Billion in revenue and massive increase in cash.

 

[Knightshade]

We are below the October lows...., after a record year of almost $100 Billion in revenue and massive increase in cash.

it's almost like WS is forward (but not especially LONG TERM forward), not backward, looking... and the projected margins and volume for 2024 aren't impressing them at the current PE, especially compared to what they were when the SP was higher.

 

[Jim Holder]

QTA levels for today

12/26

2/2

 

[EVNow]

We are below the October lows...., after a record year of almost $100 Billion in revenue and massive increase in cash.

But 50% CAGR is already priced in ... any deviation from that will get a reaction from Wall St.

ps : I should note a n actual 50% CAGR will also get a reaction since not everyone in the market believes Tesla will get 50% CAGR.

 

[BornToFly]

Rolled in -240CC to -200CC for tomorrow.
Credit 0.28

 

[elasalle]

Even rolled Jan 300 CC in personal to Jan 270 and got another $4 each ... this goes to the bank ...

 

[BornToFly]

it's almost like WS is forward (but not especially LONG TERM forward), not backward, looking... and the projected margins and volume for 2024 aren't impressing them at the current PE, especially compared to what they were when the SP was higher.

PE is 60 now, and still looking at 20-30% revenue growth this year between Auto and Energy.

 

[tivoboy]

STC 20 $200 +P to sell at $17, up well nearly 8.5x..

 

[tivoboy]

PE is 60 now, and still looking at 20-30% revenue growth this year between Auto and Energy.

whats the maths for 40-45x pe?

lets use maybe $4 forward? so 160-185, seems about right

 

[Max Plaid]

For peace of mind I rolled the 16x -P290 9/2024 (extrinsic $0.88) out and down to 16x -P280 1/17/25 (extrinsic $3.31) for an $8k debit, using some of the gains from the overnight CC's I BTC earlier.

Idea: I can roll back into the -P290 9/2024 position later when we're over, say $220 and I BTC the -P280 for gains. This will allow me to offset any new gains from $220 and up with the -P290 against the realized loss from the roll at the same strike/position.

Yeah, sometime the roll is just to put positions out of play for a bit, then you bring them back on the radar when you want

 

[Jim Holder]

@tivoboy Down here not the place to sell new -C's right, unless we drop below $185 which implies $170's is next?

 

[Yoona]

55% chance tomorrow is green based on TSLA history

if green, could be violent reversal up to 14%

 

[Max Plaid]

STC 20 $200 +P to sell at $17, up well nearly 8.5x..

Yeah, those July +p200's I recommended to buy and didn't manage myself, they'd be netting +$200k today

Next time... simple rule, the SP dumps, buy some calls, the SP pops, buy some puts...

 

[tivoboy]

@tivoboy Down here not the place to sell new -C's right, unless we drop below $185 which implies $170's is next?

Frankly, I'm looking at Feb $200 or $195, even out to MAR doesn't add much though, so since I think we'll actually GET another low it's probably safe'ish. Prices are moving around a LOT though, and it doesn't seem that ppl are ready or trying to really STONK THE S..T out of it from here these levels.