Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[tivoboy]

Yeah, those July +p200's I recommended to buy and didn't manage myself, they'd be netting +$200k today

Next time... simple rule, the SP dumps, buy some calls, the SP pops, buy some puts...

It is,
a simple
rule.

Puts are always cheap when stock is running, it's logical but the totally counter intuitive buy, but works out (and calls vice versa)

 

[Jim Holder]

Frankly, I'm looking at Feb $200 or $195, even out to MAR doesn't add much though, so since I think we'll actually GET another low it's probably safe'ish. Prices are moving around a LOT though, and it doesn't seem that ppl are ready or trying to really STONK THE S..T out of it from here these levels.

What strikes/DTE do you have in mind?
-C230 2/16 pays only $0.56

 

[Knightshade]

PE is 60 now,

So still 10x a typical car company. And yes it's "not just a car company" but in 2023 well over 90% of revenue was...related to cars. Cars they're nearing market saturation on with current models outside CT, which itself will be low volume compared to 3/Y- and no new "mass" vehicle till end of 2025.

What the energy growth story looks like in 24 will be most important for 2025 outlook- as it's the only avenue of outsized growth available in the next 2 years till the next-gen vehicle or (further afield most likely) anything from Optimus or >L2 ADAS.

and still looking at 20-30% revenue growth this year between Auto and Energy.

2022>2023 total revenue was only up 19%- and they specifically called out significantly less growth in 2024. Operating margin was almost cut in half 22->23 (16.7% vs 9.2%).

2022>2023 gross profit was down 15%. 2022>2023 EPS non-GAAP was down 23%.

Even GAAP, which had a one-off ~6 billion tax benefit helping, was only up 19% WITH that one-off.


The business is perfectly healthy and profitable. But will be growing at a significantly lower rate for probably 2 years than it was the last few.


This is likely getting deeper into the weeds than really makes sense for this shorter-view thread though?

Unless we want to discuss how good an idea mid-2026 LEAPs are or something... was SEMI tempted by say $250 strike for ~40 bucks, but since it's likely we see even lower SP later this year waiting still seems to make more sense.

 

[Jim Holder]

Tesla Stock Will Head Lower From Here. The Charts Don't Lie (Barrons.com)

Jan 25, 202410:33 EST

Al Root

Tesla stock is falling after the company posted disappointing quarterly earnings and hosted an equally disappointing earnings conference call.

Investors are likely wondering where the stock will go next. For some guidance, they can forget fundamentals and look at stock charts.

Market technicians and traders look at chart patterns to get a sense of where any stock can go over the short and medium term. Charts have a way of aggregating all the opinions of market players and can be useful for any investor — be they a bull or bear — looking to overcome innate biases.

The setup is grim. Tesla stock was down 8.6% in premarket trading Thursday, below $190 a share, after the company reported fourth-quarter earnings of 71 cents a share. Wall Street was looking for 73 cents a share. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite futures were up 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively.

"Tesla's key support near $208 is going to be sliced through today," said Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton. "But we usually let gaps down settle and watch the next few days of trading before judging the magnitude of the breakdown."

If Tesla stock closes below $208 for two consecutive Fridays then it is headed toward $177, she says.

But Stockton does have some heartening advice. Don't "sell into weakness, if you own Tesla," Stockton adds. "See if it can get back into the gap for a better exit."

A significant drop, or rise, all at once is called "gapping down," or "gapping up" in Wall Street parlance. Stocks that gap down tend to get back some of the initial drop. That can happen with Tesla too, but that is trading advice from Stockton, not investing advice.

The "$200 is the key level for Tesla and as long as the stock is under there, price action and technical indicators will be challenged and biased lower," adds 22V Research senior managing director John Roque. He is a little more bearish than Stockton and says Tesla stock could eventually retest the levels near $100 seen in early 2023.

That isn't what shareholders want to hear, but the charts don't lie. Of course, things don't have to turn out that way. Demand, interest rates, and investors' moods are all dynamic.

Still, investors should brace for Tesla stock to drift lower in the coming weeks.

 

[DarkKnight83]

55% chance tomorrow is green based on TSLA history

View attachment 1012100

if green, could be violent reversal up to 14%

View attachment 1012107

What is triggered?

 

[intelligator]

The overlap at 220 to 200 is now at 212.5 to 185 ... seems that 210 saw the most in terms of common interest, c215 and c230 led the moves , lots of action 210 and below on the put scale.

 

[mongo]

Yeah, those July +p200's I recommended to buy and didn't manage myself, they'd be netting +$200k today

Next time... simple rule, the SP dumps, buy some calls, the SP pops, buy some puts...

So...
What calls are you buying?

 

[Yoona]

What is triggered?

Uptick Rule: An SEC Rule Governing Short Sales

The Uptick Rule is a financial regulation that requires short sales to be conducted at a higher price than the previous trade.

www.investopedia.com

 

[tivoboy]

What strikes/DTE do you have in mind?
-C230 2/16 pays only $0.56

I’m working on it, but looking at monthly 2/23/24 for the next leg down. Looking at 197.5/200. I know that is close, but if/when we’re under ~ $175 in the next week, they’ll drop hard.

 

[Max Plaid]

So...
What calls are you buying?

Well I already have some, so don't really need right now, but Jan 2025 +c300's look interesting at $9 -> that a lot of upside protection for weekly selling

So buy 100x +c300 -$90k, sell +$1 weekly against them for 50x expiries +$500k = $410k profits!

OK, it's not quite that simple, but I'm still of the opinion that $1 calls will very rarely go ITM and, if they did, most of the time you'd have an easy roll up and out

Hell, I'm even thinking to sell $9 of premium now and buy the +c300's for free, seems a good bet to me

 

[Jim Holder]

Let's see how this holds up @$185 - huge fight right now:

 

[Yoona]

looking ahead one month, possible 180 in play

 

[Jim Holder]

I’m working on it, but looking at monthly 2/23/24 for the next leg down. Looking at 197.5/200. I know that is close, but if/when we’re under ~ $175 in the next week, they’ll drop hard.

So -C200 that expires AFTER 2/23/24 to allow for the leg down, right?
Maybe -C200 3/1?

 

[tivoboy]

Well I already have some, so don't really need right now, but Jan 2025 +c300's look interesting at $9 -> that a lot of upside protection for weekly selling

So buy 100x +c300 -$90k, sell +$1 weekly against them for 50x expiries +$500k = $410k profits!

OK, it's not quite that simple, but I'm still of the opinion that $1 calls will very rarely go ITM and, if they did, most of the time you'd have an easy roll up and out

Hell, I'm even thinking to sell $9 of premium now and buy the +c300's for free, seems a good bet to me

So simple and elegant one could do the maths with an abacus.

 

[Knightshade]

Well I already have some, so don't really need right now, but Jan 2025 +c300's look interesting at $9 -> that a lot of upside protection for weekly selling

So buy 100x +c300 -$90k, sell +$1 weekly against them for 50x expiries +$500k = $410k profits!

OK, it's not quite that simple, but I'm still of the opinion that $1 calls will very rarely go ITM and, if they did, most of the time you'd have an easy roll up and out

Hell, I'm even thinking to sell $9 of premium now and buy the +c300's for free, seems a good bet to me

$9 premium right now would be ~$180 for next Friday.... $1 would be ~202.50 for next Friday-- just as reference

 

[EVNow]

I think this explains a lot ... even bullish analysts are disappointed.

https://x.com/garyblack00/status/1750517068900777999?s=20

 

[tivoboy]

So -C200 that expires AFTER 2/23/24 to allow for the leg down, right?
Maybe -C200 3/1?

More monthly 2/23/24… Frankly at $5 (it’s now $4) it’s a spin of the wheel (no pun intended)..If we rally a TAD I could see it back to $5, I’ll overwrite the entire current position at that..

 

[thenewguy1979]

BTC my NVDIA -610P. Even out my Tesla Long this week.

Today 185/186 will decide where we go next I guess.....Amo ready. Please tell me when and where to shoot

 

[mongo]

Well I already have some, so don't really need right now, but Jan 2025 +c300's look interesting at $9 -> that a lot of upside protection for weekly selling

If I follow:
Buy FOTM calls
Sell calls against shares
If they expire OTM, repeat
If they go ITM, roll up and out for credit until bought call expiry.

Edit: and you updated your post

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Here we go. (Yesterday I even heard Teslaboomermama (Alexandra Metz) who is a big Tesla bull, in despair, that the only thing to expect is a drop ("in which we all can accumulate stock") because this is how the majority of institutions look at Tesla: 1 year out. To jump back in just before really taking off.
At least I am a little bit diversified this time and still hope I will not get assigned some _P that are really close and underwater. Maybe we get a run to the 175 and take off from there, but I keep an eye on the fat dotted red line under all bottom that is at 130-ish (rising) right now. Don't think that is a very likely bottom though, because of all the drops we already had (in fact al the way down since almost SP300!) Maybe the last bigger gap-up will ultimately be reached, which is 145. For now, I hope it will stop in the 170's.