All good
Happy to post and share here, I hope it’s helpful and not annoying. It’s my way of contributing back and saying thank you to all of you for being here and sharing too.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Happy to post and share here, I hope it’s helpful and not annoying. It’s my way of contributing back and saying thank you to all of you for being here and sharing too.
I do have the shares to cover -C185, but I don't want to lose those shares at that price.
I like how you're thinking outside the box. I put this in the margin Calculator (simulating assignment of 50X -195P by closing them for 0.01 and buying 5000 shares at 195). This results in a cash loss of $32k and margin loss of 42k. So it doesn't help my margin problem if the SP goes down to 120. I'm also scared of the 100 strike C to replace the shares.
Anyone do any modeling on Tesla’s profits/EPS if China’s economy collapses or just dives for the rest of 2024 and Tesla sales within China (not exports) drop precipitously along with it? That could keep pressure on TSLA and even push it down more 
A few thoughts:
Will you still need all that margin if you close those 150x spreads?
You can generate more cash if you push those -c195 to Jan or June 2026.
Re: +c100: the idea is to buy a 2026 DITM for share replacement. You’ll spend a little more on premium but have two more years for recovery and have plenty of time to roll out farther, if necessary.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Why just China - how about Europe or US or ...Anyone do any modeling on Tesla’s profits/EPS if China’s economy collapses or just dives for the rest of 2024 and Tesla sales within China (not exports) drop precipitously along with it? That could keep pressure on TSLA and even push it down more
I think the apocalyptic language used by some on YT when it comes to other countries is usually born out of ignorance.
Just like US Fed / government, China is a modern economy with a number of tools to deal with a recession or slowing economy. They won't let the economy "collapse". China is not Somalia.
If I sell a bunch of March 15 175CC to close out my March BPS, and the stock goes back up to 240, how hard will it be to roll those DITM CCs up?
Well, if I just pay $178k to close those spread, I gain about $178 in margin (because they are about 50% loss right now). Obviously that helps. Fidelity doesn't let you simulate buy/selling, and then simulating an SP drop to 100 off the hypothetical new account, so I don't know if I would be good to 100.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
@tivoboy - tell us when you’re ready with your world domination plan.
I’m sure the team here whoever buy that house on the mountain will not have just the room but also the house name after the one and only tivoboy.
I think here are the few rare opportunities to start planning big, as the movements for Tesla and the Macro Market going to be gigantic. Good or bad depend on how well we are prepared during these major shifts.
If anyone believed in the long term goal of Tesla perhaps here the only chance left before the rocket left for Mars in 2025. Getting in at perhaps rock bottom pricing.
I’m sure the team here whoever buy that house on the mountain will not have just the room but also the house name after the one and only tivoboy.
I think here are the few rare opportunities to start planning big, as the movements for Tesla and the Macro Market going to be gigantic. Good or bad depend on how well we are prepared during these major shifts.
If anyone believed in the long term goal of Tesla perhaps here the only chance left before the rocket left for Mars in 2025. Getting in at perhaps rock bottom pricing.
OK, but if those calls go ITM then the puts are clear at least...
I'm writing ATM calls as the stock looks weak, but I have the safety-net of several batches of 100x +c280/300's that I can use to underwrite a roll in case they go ITM
But I also hold 100x -c200's right now and if the calls go ITM, then those puts can be managed easier too as they'll be close to the money
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Last heard was if he become a Bear he would let us know. Perhaps he went into Hibernation at a Beach somewhere and forgot to let us know
Cary suggests that $177-$174 area may be the local bottom for this move, anticipated off the $265 resistance rejection. As TSLA tests this area one may consider taking profits on puts/close shorts and reach for +C215 calls with a 6-8 week expiry (though can play out in 2-3 weeks) and following a test of $218.55 TSLA can round back down to the upper $170's and fill the wedge out through March and beyond.
But if TSLA closes below $173.01 (1% below $174.76) then reverse and stay short/go short and prepare for $106.64 in 3-5 weeks
If TSLA closes ABOVE $218.55 that signals bullish continuation toward a retest of $252.73.
More details in his short video update today:
But if TSLA closes below $173.01 (1% below $174.76) then reverse and stay short/go short and prepare for $106.64 in 3-5 weeks
If TSLA closes ABOVE $218.55 that signals bullish continuation toward a retest of $252.73.
More details in his short video update today:
I don't know your overall margin situation but my idea roughly boils down to:
-Sell shares to buy DITM LEAPS at say a 1:2 ratio (buy 2x 2026 calls for each 100 shares sold)
-Sell March 190c on half the LEAPS (the other half are share replacements) and use the proceeds to close maybe 30x spreads
-If they go ITM, your remaining 120 spreads disappear. You would lose another 5000 shares but you already have 50x ITM LEAPS to replace them.
-if OTM, then you can resell -c190 for June and close more spreads. You'd have to roll the remaining spreads or hopefully already did before they go max loss.
Yer he told us to tell all our shares and wait for $80. This was when it was trading in the 220's.
Lol, read his full post and follwups for context, he was being sarcastic and was annoyed at those calling for sub-$200. When we got the sharp reversal from $212 to $224 on January 16, he poked fun at the doomsayers (see below). He said he felt TSLA was in a bottoming process. He was looking for $230 before ER, then the rest up to ER itself. The next day he disappeared along with any pop to $230.
He also hasn’t updated his “TSLA TA” Patreon blog in several weeks.
I don’t understand why he ghosts us at these crazy junctures, though I respect he has a life and can do what he wants ;- )
I just hope he’s okay and frolicking somewhere in the sun with a drink in his hands and a smile on his face.
Unfortunately, shares give Margin, but leaps don't. That plan (selling 9,000 shares, buying 180X 100 strike Jan 2026 Leaps, and selling 90X March 190CC lowers my available margin by over 900K.
I’m not knowledgeable enough to opine on any of this other than to say that unhooking the shares from a dropping share price—by selling them—keeps the cash as stable margin support while the SP keeps falling. Of course the risk is getting back in at the right time as we all well know.
Personally I plan to cut 50% of my longs if we lose $180 and the rest if we close below $173. To quote one of Elon’s favorite words, it’s a “money furnace” to stay in shares as price craters.
So if you go to cash and keep the cash in the account, at least it’s not diminishing as margin support as the SP keeps dropping. You probably already know this, but I thought to share anyway in case not.
Hah I know. I was just joking around. I replied to one of his posts asking for the chartsLol, read his full post and follwups for context, he was being sarcastic and was annoyed at those calling for sub-$200. When we got the sharp reversal from $212 to $224 on January 16, he poked fun at the doomsayers (see below). He said he felt TSLA was in a bottoming process. He was looking for $230 before ER, then the rest up to ER itself. The next day he disappeared along with any pop to $230.
He also hasn’t updated his “TSLA TA” Patreon blog in several weeks.
I don’t understand why he ghosts us at these crazy junctures, though I respect he has a life and can do what he wants ;- )
I just hope he’s okay and frolicking somewhere in the sun with a drink in his hands and a smile on his face.
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lol. I'm thinking he may just be upset at some of the doomers who were making a big deal at the time about the drama of Elon Musks compensation request. So he decided to take a break from it all, HOWEVER with the drop in the share price his probably taking a prolonged break now because some people may poke him with an "I told you so". Even though the drop has nothing to do with the compensation request.
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