Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[StarFoxisDown!]

Vanity is a pesky thing that keeps us from logical and pragmatic decisions .

Yeah, Elon and Tesla want the tech valuation but they're so stubborn at actually structuring their software as a SAAS business and so what do you expect Wall St to do

Switching to subscription model only and lowering the price temporarily, Tesla can share stats that show MAU and the adoption rate and the correlation of FSD progress and adoption rate. Will the revenue from subscriptions make a big impact for earnings for 2024? Nope. But Wall St can start to model out Tesla's SAAS and they will give TSLA a premium for that. Tons of tech companies are valued almost entirely on their MAU well before their efforts of monetization start to show fruition down the road.

And it's not like Tesla's giving away FSD for pennies on the dollar just for a quick spark for the stock. They simply increase the subscription price as FSD adoption starts to go into a S Curve where the general consumer widely starts to accept the subscription model, sees the value in the software, gets accustomed to daily using it, and the service (FSD) shows more progress towards perfection.

 

[Jim Holder]

Anyone here considering some SPY puts one year out, if yes what strike/DTE?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1760801642742731086

 

[ChiefRollo]

What a difference 6 hours can make:



2/23 - Now
(Number of calls @$200 almost doubled)

View attachment 1020915


2/23 - This morning:

View attachment 1020917

Does this mean MM will sell into this level?

 

[phantasms]

That's one one of the hallmarks of a bubble. Just sayin.

anyone else buying long dated cheap puts?

 

[BornToFly]

What is NET GEX saying for NVDA tomorrow...?

 

[ChiefRollo]

Yeah, Elon and Tesla want the tech valuation but they're so stubborn at actually structuring their software as a SAAS business and so what do you expect Wall St to do

Switching to subscription model only and lowering the price temporarily, Tesla can share stats that show MAU and the adoption rate and the correlation of FSD progress and adoption rate. Will the revenue from subscriptions make a big impact for earnings for 2024? Nope. But Wall St can start to model out Tesla's SAAS and they will give TSLA a premium for that. Tons of tech companies are valued almost entirely on their MAU well before their efforts of monetization start to show fruition down the road.

And it's not like Tesla's giving away FSD for pennies on the dollar just for a quick spark for the stock. They simply increase the subscription price as FSD adoption starts to go into a S Curve where the general consumer widely starts to accept the subscription model, sees the value in the software, gets accustomed to daily using it, and the service (FSD) shows more progress towards perfection.

Wonder if subscription as a model for supercharging also makes sense…in the same manner as GB / month for phones…with slower charging speed activated once a threshold is reached.

I know we’re off topic again…

 

[ChiefRollo]

anyone else buying long dated cheap puts?

Thinking about it…akin to buying powerball tickets.

 

[Jim Holder]

What is NET GEX saying for NVDA tomorrow...?

Last I checked, no red bars (selling pressure) until above $202.50. Push through that and is clear until $212.50

Need to check after open tomorrow to see if there are any changes:

PS Keep in mind that dealers don’t always get their way no matter what they try, market forces can be forceful and animalistic, so remember nothing is certain in any direction until it confirms on the chart. These lines provide rails so we can have more data as price action unfolds.

 

[juanmedina]

anyone else buying long dated cheap puts?

How cheap? What do you have in mind? Or buy put spreads @dl003 style

 

[dl003]

nothing that starts with SMCI is cheap right now. Thats how they get ya.

 

[Tachyon]

First day of vacation today.
I guess my vacation TA doesn’t come to fruition anymore , or has it ?

As I posted a few weeks ago that given how horribly TSLA is being manipulated ,I was gonna hold on to my existing shares and search for new opportunities for the couch change .
Hesitantly, I started dabbling in NVDA and it has been paying well for past few weeks . Have been buying shares and selling slightly OTM calls and collecting the delta and premiums.
Bought DITM calls pre earnings before the mini crash . Just waited it out for the results . Fun fact, I had a dream Tuesday night that NVDA SP after results is 787
( it ended at 785 today)

Sold Most of the calls at SP around 780 today. I did leave a lot of
Money on the table by not hodling them , but after being badly burned by TSLA leaps , I am
Jittery about holding calls far too long .
Live to trade another day .
Good luck everyone
Long story short, my vacation TA mojo looks like has moved on from TSLA to NVDA

 

[Jim Holder]

nothing that starts with SMCI is cheap right now. Thats how they get ya.

Is it too early to consider starter SPY puts, maybe +P400 or +P450 for 8-12 months out given how cheap they are or some other @dl003 spread special combo?

 

[DaBooster]

Last I checked, no red bars (selling pressure) until above $202.50. Push through that and is clear until $212.50

Need to check after open tomorrow to see if there are any changes:

View attachment 1020953


PS Keep in mind that dealers don’t always get their way no matter what they try, market forces can be forceful and animalistic, so remember nothing is certain in any direction until it confirms on the chart. These lines provide rails so we can have more data as price action unfolds.

Think the questions was about NVDA Jim

 

[BornToFly]

Looks like I'm still a Premium member....

This is what I'm seeing for NVDA, 3 day. Not much above 800 in terms of bars.

 

[dl003]

Is it too early to consider starter SPY puts, maybe +P400 or +P450 for 8-12 months out given how cheap they are or some other @dl003 spread special combo?

not yet. maybe 3 more weeks

 

[Singuy]

not yet. maybe 3 more weeks

Do you believe the market is going toward a blow off top like what Cory is predicting from thestockchannel? If so, what is the top on spy you are thinking and how would that affect Tsla/Nvidia?

 

[dl003]

Do you believe the market is going toward a blow off top like what Cory is predicting from thestockchannel? If so, what is the top on spy you are thinking and how would that affect Tsla/Nvidia?

I only (90%) trade TSLA so cant comment too much on SPY. Right now SPY is showing diminishing momentum but still creeping up. This can go on for a long time but when the time comes and its gonna come, it will be ugly. Hard to predict the timing, though.

My default scenario for TSLA is a few more days of choppy down action, then a spike to fill the 207 gap. When that happens I will observe the PA for further project. 195 magnet for end of March.

 

[thenewguy1979]

TSLA was not alone on the sidelines. Fellow M7 AAPL also barely bump $2 today.

Guess they both didnt mentioned too much on AI development on their growth charts.

@dl003 why not apply your standard put spread on SMCI or NVDA when the times come. Figured the sold cost of the short leg would offset the high prices of the long leg.

 

[Max Plaid]

I think this will be the way Tesla will handle it. It has been deemed internally as the “killer app” for Tesla vehicles and its ecosystem; as such, it’s quite natural to view it as an app…belonging to the account holder, not the device (PC, phone or vehicle).

I’m getting mine (that I paid $3k for) transferred to a new Tesla alongside FUSC.

Yeah, well I was an early adopter of the Model X Plaid here in Europe, ordered back in August 2021, waited 16 months for it to arrive, paid a higher price than today, and lost both my FSD and my lifetime supercharging -> all of which I would have kept, along with a much lower price if I had delayed

Plus my MXP is now only worth 50% of what I paid, after just over one year ownership, so that's another barrier to buying another

Gee, thanks Tesla

 

[Max Plaid]

Is it too early to consider starter SPY puts, maybe +P400 or +P450 for 8-12 months out given how cheap they are or some other @dl003 spread special combo?

Interesting thing with SPY puts is that you then have 0DTE available, so if you, for example, bought March 2025 +p500 for $22, you could then sell daily -p500 against it for zero margin requirement 200 times until the long expires... might try that with a handful