My gut tells me we close above 183 today, and go Green tomorrow, but I'm trying to be aggressive and make money in case the market continues to be stupid.
I don't think the market is actually being stupid...they're just being prudent. Well all know Q1's numbers are going to come in somewhere between weak to meh. There's little upside surprise now that we have 2 months of data. Tesla also had to do price cuts just to move the amount they're going to move.
Sure, Tesla possibly reduced COGS enough to more than offset the price cuts and thus margins will continue to stabilize/improve. But Wall St's gonna wait and see and they have plenty of justification for that. Nearly 5 straight quarters of QoQ margin decline. And it's not like Q2 is going to be some quick turnaround monster quarter.
V12 progress has been very bullish but still a couple of quarters away from having impact on earnings (where V12 is released to other countries and widely available to every consumer).
Then throw in macro's that are at ATH where more investors are either going to take profits or they've been on the sidelines waiting on a pullback.
Idk, if I was just the average investor that doesn't believe in Tesla's autonomy strategy, their SAAS business in auto, Energy, Insurance, Robotics, etc....then I would say Wall St is giving Tesla a pretty fair valuation today.
Even look at Nvidia before it took off. Nvidia was not getting any love or credit for future earnings until the ChatGP moment happened. And that moment happened just 1-2 quarters before that ChatGP moment turned into actual earnings movement. So it might be very likely that Wall St will give Tesla zero credit for Autonomy until it's laughably obvious that it's about to translate into major earnings growth in the next 1-2 quarters.
