Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[StarFoxisDown!]

I don't agree with this. We are still far away from wide rollout, let alone revenue impact. Still not safe enough for even all YT influencer rollout (not even Dirty Tesla or Chuck Cook).

V12 rollout has been very different than the past in that it's not going out to the same usual early beta testers. There were some that were not part of that early beta testers group that got V12.

This is further backed up by the fact that V12 clearly has a much lower disengagement rate than the latest version of V11. Many FSD users attest to thinking V12 in its current state is way safer than their current version of V11.

So the methods and process of wider releases for V12 is clearly different than V11.

As for revenue/earnings impacts, we can agree to disagree. Some think it requires perfect Level 4 for any meaningful earnings impact. I don't agree with that thought process.

 

[DarkKnight83]

During the June 2022 crash, TSLA bottomed before SPY. After a dead cat in both, SPY went on to make a lower low while TSLA only retested its prior low.
View attachment 1024894
Right now it's pretty similar to June 2022
TSLA is simply testing the 175-180 area while SPY is entering a mild pullback that should last into March quad witch on 3/15. Then both should bounce into EOM.
Yellow boxes are PA from the lows to P&D. Blue boxes are PA from P&D to ER. Both times, TSLA could not break the 0.381 retracement due to the tenacity of the crash.
View attachment 1024898

Back then company fundamentals was still good.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Just guessing here, but it’s probably a 1 followed by two zeros. ;-)

Basing on MACRO taking a big dump I'm inclined to think so too.
But what I think does not matter as I'm wrong 75% of the times

Comeon Yoona it' still too early for TV.

 

[dl003]

Back then company fundamentals was still good.

You think I've been calling tops and bottoms while looking at the fundamentals?

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Idk, if I was just the average investor that doesn't believe in Tesla's autonomy strategy, their SAAS business in auto, Energy, Insurance, Robotics, etc....then I would say Wall St is giving Tesla a pretty fair valuation today.

Even look at Nvidia before it took off. Nvidia was not getting any love or credit for future earnings until the ChatGP moment happened. And that moment happened just 1-2 quarters before that ChatGP moment turned into actual earnings movement. So it might be very likely that Wall St will give Tesla zero credit for Autonomy until it's laughably obvious that it's about to translate into major earnings growth in the next 1-2 quarters.

Yes, but WE know..
And there will be no time to pick up shares cheaply at the GPT moment (as soon as FSD12 is rolling (also into Europe and China) and FSD licensed to BYD (at least 8.000 a piece) will be announced.) The jump will be incredible. But when, when, when will that moment be? You want to be positioned long at that moment, so holding stock, (sold P and LEAPS C) is a must. I think by now, after al this worrisome news, not being very much lower than beginning of December, not yet oversold but... nearer the bottom than the top for the next few years, isn't it (even if we go 140)?
So I did not only buy back stock, but opened
TSLA Apr 185/180 Bull Put
-TSLA NASDAQ.NMS Jun18'26 185 PUT (double this to buy: )
+TSLA NASDAQ.NMS Jun18'26 115 CALL

(+ bought back the 50% sold Sofi (too early, but still cheaper)

 

[ChiefRollo]

Watch 2 levels: 181.06 and 175.01.

If we close any day below 181.06 but above 175.01, that'll be a signal to close shorts and ATM/ITM CCs. Otherwise, if we trade below 175.01, bears in full control. If we don't trade below 181.06, then watch momentum for exhaustion.

Thank you!

 

[MP3Mike]

I don't agree with this. We are still far away from wide rollout, let alone revenue impact.

Revenue impact? I think they have recognized virtually all of the FSD revenue for North America. (The exception would be the early adopters that bought with the "level 4/5" description vs. the current ADAS description.)

Revenue in Europe will continue to be held until they can rollout FSD there. (I think it is going to be about a year away before the regulations are changed to allow it, at which time I expect the rollout to be fairly quick.)

Beyond that the only additional revenue would be from getting more owners to buy, or subscribe, to FSD.

 

[EVNow]

Many FSD users attest to thinking V12 in its current state is way safer than their current version of V11.

I disagree - as do most people on the AP sub-forum. V12 is smoother in many respects - but seems to have higher chances of a critical disengagement.

From this thread's perspective - I think of any upside from FSD as a low probability even this year.

Beyond that the only additional revenue would be from getting more owners to buy, or subscribe, to FSD.

Yes, this is what we are talking about.

But more importantly - from SP perspective, if and when FSD is considered "good" - I expect a parabolic increase in SP.

 

[ChiefRollo]

Berlin will be producing 6K less this month at least because of some fools in trees. What do they not understand about EV vs ICE?

They understand German car industry vs. outsider EV threats.

 

[thenewguy1979]

You think I've been calling tops and bottoms while looking at the fundamentals?

dl003 does not watch the news, listen to drama, or be impacted by noises from the outside world. He locked himself in a white room with 4 walls just staring at charts and TA all day. How else we think he come out with such accurate numbers?

Thanks for his sacrifices we are now benefiting from.

Amen......

 

[mongo]

Revenue impact? I think they have recognized virtually all of the FSD revenue for North America. (The exception would be the early adopters that bought with the "level 4/5" description vs. the current ADAS description.)

Revenue in Europe will continue to be held until they can rollout FSD there. (I think it is going to be about a year away before the regulations are changed to allow it, at which time I expect the rollout to be fairly quick.)

Beyond that the only additional revenue would be from getting more owners to buy, or subscribe, to FSD.

They had a large FSD based release of deferred revenue in Dec 2022, but are still carrying a lot. Autopilot on City streets mainline release perhaps?
They expect to release $1B this year.

Deferred revenue related to the access to our FSD Capability features and their ongoing maintenance, internet connectivity, free Supercharging programs and over-the-air software updates primarily on automotive sales consisted of the following (in millions):
...
Revenue recognized from the deferred revenue balance as of December 31, 2022 was $469 million for the year ended December 31, 2023. We had recognized revenue of $472 million from the deferred revenue balance as of December 31, 2021, for the year ended December 31, 2022, primarily related to the general FSD Capability feature release in North America in the fourth quarter of 2022. Of the total deferred revenue balance as of December 31, 2023, we expect to recognize $926 million of revenue in the next 12 months. The remaining balance will be recognized at the time of transfer of control of the product or over the performance period as discussed above in Automotive Sales.

 

[Max Plaid]

Heads-up, just spotted that extrinsic on this week's TSLA -p200 is approximately ZERO, going to roll the 50x I have out

Edit: rolled to 43x 3/22 -p200 + 50c 3/15 -c190 for a couple $k credit

 

[Yoona]

Comeon Yoona it' still too early for TV.

huh?

 

[Singuy]

I was a bit harsh I admit but this sentiment is what I disagree with.... I feel like people are trading *only* on technicals and attributing 0 to actual valuation changes.

Like, you don't just buy a company because it's down 50% from ATH. You have to look at what has changed at the company. The company was priced basically for all the future earnings growth at ATH, and now growth is heavily diminished and earnings have gone down like 40%.

So what that it's down 50%, look at the earnings! TSLA PE ratio (real) is still above 60. It's forward PE ratio (on 2025 estimated earnings) is 45.

NVDA's forward PE ratio (on estimated 2025 earnings) is 28.

Ignored what's happened in the past. One of these companies is priced 50% lower in valuation based on expected earnings than the other. If you think that company is overvalued, then what are you doing going long on the company valued 50% higher?

TSLA will go marketedly higher only when future earnings estimates get revised upwards. Not seeing that happening for 6 months at minimum.

When TSLA was mooning, they beat expectation and raised guidance, analysts were rising forward earnings....all the way until they didn't and the stock crashed accordingly. Tesla even with a very high valuation of near 800B didn't have a forward PE that was outrageous. So yes, NVDA has a low forward PE but that forward PE just like Tsla can change. NVDA just like Tesla before now has a much harder time meeting and beating expectations because their valuation is so high. Many people had this same sentiment when Tsla was flying high and they were raising Model Y prices every other week.

Your sentiment is that Tsla's earnings will be even worst after a few Qs of bad earnings, and Nvidia's will continue to beat expectations on already very high expectations. What can go wrong.....

 

[tivoboy]

Honestly, why do they even bother.

A BUCK?

Tesla stock price target raised to $298 at RBC on Megapack valuation By Investing.com

Tesla stock price target raised to $298 at RBC on Megapack valuation

www.investing.com

 

[thenewguy1979]

huh?

2 red days what the chance of a green day tomorrow?

 

[Yoona]

2 red days what the chance of a green day tomorrow?

sry i was beautifying my dashboard - remind me daily to make sure i really get it

 

[Singuy]

V12 rollout has been very different than the past in that it's not going out to the same usual early beta testers. There were some that were not part of that early beta testers group that got V12.

This is further backed up by the fact that V12 clearly has a much lower disengagement rate than the latest version of V11. Many FSD users attest to thinking V12 in its current state is way safer than their current version of V11.

So the methods and process of wider releases for V12 is clearly different than V11.

As for revenue/earnings impacts, we can agree to disagree. Some think it requires perfect Level 4 for any meaningful earnings impact. I don't agree with that thought process.

That's because V12 control and planning were written by AI so no one really knows for sure what was written. They can only validate safety and behavior through close monitoring. What we have here is a demonstration that the first version of this works better than human written code, which IMO is a the most important part.

 

[Yoona]

tsla chance of 165/170-200 in 2 wks

 

[MikeC]

I’m now out of all short calls except some 192.50s I expect to expire. It’s nice to clear out the calls but on the other hand the shares and LEAPS backing them obviously lost much more.

This is the tough part for me - where the SP is too low to sell calls but I’m too exposed to downside not to. Right now I’m happy to have resisted the temptation this morning to open up -c180s. I’ve dabbled in buying puts but as a bull I struggle to keep them open, once they go even a little green I almost can’t help but take the small win.