Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Jim Holder]

I’m now out of all short calls except some 192.50s I expect to expire. It’s nice to clear out the calls but on the other hand the shares and LEAPS backing them obviously lost much more.

This is the tough part for me - where the SP is too low to sell calls but I’m too exposed to downside not to. Right now I’m happy to have resisted the temptation this morning to open up -c180s. I’ve dabbled in buying puts but as a bull I struggle to keep them open, once they go even a little green I almost can’t help but take the small win.

Feel the same.

Although I still STO today a few -C240 8/16 @ $8.00 and -C250 9/20 @$8.25 (3rd roundtrip on both). Mainly for some downside protection until we get through April. I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet. If we chop $180-$200 that’s fine too while they burn theta.

I also bought just a few +P175 4/19 just in case of a big dump in the next 2-3 weeks as some are predicting.

Lastly I followed @dl003‘s BPS:

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optionstrat.com

On the whole it seems a bottom is near and indeed wise to consider orienting more bullish than bearish, we just need to be sure $175 is defended.

 

[Max Plaid]

Interesting AH...

 

[thenewguy1979]

Interesting AH...

It like the AI guys just save the market AH.

Hope this is a forecast of a big green day tomorrow.

 

[tivoboy]

Feel the same.

Although I still STO today a few -C240 8/16 @ $8.00 and -C250 9/20 @$8.25 (3rd roundtrip on both). Mainly for some downside protection until we get through April. I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet. If we chop $180-$200 that’s fine too while they burn theta.

I also bought just a few +P175 4/19 just in case of a big dump in the next 2-3 weeks as some are predicting.

Lastly I followed @dl003‘s BPS:

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optionstrat.com

View attachment 1024953

On the whole it seems a bottom is near and indeed wise to consider orienting more bullish than bearish, we just need to be sure $175 is defended.

That’s some nice premium, and probably a good bet.. but I’d think about taking them off if they crater when we go lower. Just a thought.

 

[Jim Holder]

Good update:

 

[Jim Holder]

That’s some nice premium, and probably a good bet.. but I’d think about taking them off if they crater when we go lower. Just a thought.

Are you referring to the BPS? Since the -C and +P will be nicely green if we go <$175

 

[bmd00]

During the June 2022 crash, TSLA bottomed before SPY. After a dead cat in both, SPY went on to make a lower low while TSLA only retested its prior low.
View attachment 1024894
Right now it's pretty similar to June 2022
TSLA is simply testing the 175-180 area while SPY is entering a mild pullback that should last into March quad witch on 3/15. Then both should bounce into EOM.
Yellow boxes are PA from the lows to P&D. Blue boxes are PA from P&D to ER. Both times, TSLA could not break the 0.381 retracement due to the tenacity of the crash.
View attachment 1024898

Most notable difference was SP was quick to bounce in May 2022 but much slower to retest its prior low. This time the opposite seems to have happened with SP climbing more slow and steady but falling quicker and steeper.

 

[joh01652]

What number is up 9%?
Combined retail and export is down 6% for Jan-Feb 24 vs 23, but March is important as the holiday recovery month.

I think he's referring to Tesla China insured units: through the ninth week of 2023 Tesla China had 71,106 insured units; through the ninth week of 2024 it's 77,200 (if the numbers are to be believed), so up about 8.5% yoy.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1764896132637876493

 

[tivoboy]

Are you referring to the BPS? Since the -C and +P will be nicely green if we go <$175

Mostly the -c, but it’s far enough out they might not drop too much even if/when we go sub $170. I think I might look at selling some synthetic -c and then taking off the +c after actually buying the equity lower.

Or, I might just wait.. i think we’re close.

 

[Jim Holder]

Morgan Stanley/Adam Jones has spoketh and lowers their $TSLA price target from $345 to $320 (a -$25 haircut):

“We believe Tesla has significant attributes to be valued as an Al beneficiary, but the company must see a stabilization in the negative earnings revisions within the auto business first.

“We do not believe Tesla will get credit as an Al company as long as core auto earnings are being revised down. This process may take a few more quarters to see through, over which time our $100 bear case may be 'in play.'

“Our thesis on Tesla is that it is both an auto stock + an energy, Al/robotics company. In fact, our valuation of the core auto business ($68/share) represents just 21% of our $320 price target. Negative developments in the global EV market very much matter to Tesla and should reasonably have a negative near-term impact on the price of the stock.

“At the same time, however, we believe investors should not ignore the continued developments of Tesla's other plays, many of which are auto-related (i.e. the recurring revenue opportunity from the Tesla fleet, embedded in our Tesla Network Services valuation) and other areas that we do not include within our $320 target but that the market may include (i.e. Optimus) which we expect to learn much more about during the 2024 Tesla Al day (date TBD).”

 

[Jim Holder]

Mostly the -c, but it’s far enough out they might not drop too much even if/when we go sub $170. I think I might look at selling some synthetic -c and then taking off the +c after actually buying the equity lower.

Or, I might just wait.. i think we’re close.

This is the -C240 8/16 plot:

This is the -C250 9/20 plot:

 

[Jim Holder]

EW update: TSLA is coming into an area where it can find an important low. The key will be to see a clear 5 up from the next low in the larger count below:

Credit: StockWaves. Consider a subscription to their excellent service at www.elliottwavetrader.net

 

[Discoducky]

Watch 2 levels: 181.06 and 175.01.

If we close any day below 181.06 but above 175.01, that'll be a signal to close shorts and ATM/ITM CCs. Otherwise, if we trade below 175.01, bears in full control. If we don't trade below 181.06, then watch momentum for exhaustion.

Off by a penny in AH.

 

[Jim Holder]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1765037334096195827

 

[dl003]

Off by a penny in AH.

Its already settled at the close. The daily bullish divergence is once again in play.

However, Im not even remotely bullish here. Still looking for weak PA going into EOM.

 

[dl003]

Most notable difference was SP was quick to bounce in May 2022 but much slower to retest its prior low. This time the opposite seems to have happened with SP climbing more slow and steady but falling quicker and steeper.

Im not really concerned about it. Bears have 1 job - take out the low. Its only $2 away today. Why not finish the job? Their window of opportunity shrinks the closer we get to P&D.

 

[intelligator]

Regarding PA, my loose interpretation based on close below 181.07 and above 175.xx:

price action might amount to +/- a few dollars per day above and below 180, let's say, until a direction forms? Not saying bears can't have their way either.

EDIT: Just trying to keep my fingers off the buy/sell button as long as possible. I cleared DITM puts and CSP to make way for a slide to buy back shares at 170ish. Would be great just the same if we don't go there.

 

[dl003]

Regarding PA, my loose interpretation based on close below 181.07 and above 175.xx:

price action might amount to +/- a few dollars per day above and below 180, let's say, until a direction forms?

the longer it stays above 175 the better.
Closing below 181.06 means bearish sentiment has increased since early February - fuel for a squeeze if theres one. We still need a daily reversal candle for confirmation - not guaranteed. I just like to get out of my shorts here as this fresh reading goes in the book. Maybe tmr we gap down and crash - idk.

 

[Jim Holder]

Im not really concerned about it. Bears have 1 job - take out the low. It’s only $2 away today. Why not finish the job? Their window of opportunity shrinks the closer we get to P&D.

They could be saving their ammo for P&D. A poor or weak P&D will provide them with a glorious opening to give us an ugly April. And if the Q1 earnings call on April 17 goes as bad as the last FOUR we’ll get an ugly May-June as a bonus kick in the pants

 

[adiggs]

They could be saving their ammo for P&D. A poor or weak P&D will provide them with a glorious opening to give us an ugly April. And if the Q1 earnings call on April 17 goes as bad as the last FOUR we’ll get an ugly May-June as a bonus kick in the pants

Or a bonus opportunity for making money!

An important part of the reason I sell both puts and calls, is that I'd like to have tools in my kit that can make money in either direction. Of course that also means that I can lose money in either direction.