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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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TSLA looking ahead 1 month, probability 160-170/200

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TSLA looking ahead 1 month, probability 160-170/200

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Is there a post on this thread somewhere that would explain how to read these 'tea leaves'? I get the gamma and vanna definitions, but if someone could provide a short sentence relative read on these I'd appreciate it (teach me to fish)

Taking a shot at this week (knowing wrongness is high probability): This week expect to stay in $177 range or pulled lower to $174 with possible stronger swings to the upside of $185?
 
Lol, Gary Black has less shares now than many on this thread yet he makes so much noise:

“@GaryBlack’s $FFND sold 1,000 TSLA shares, now down to 1,916 shares and #15 position.”

I am seeing a few Tesla bulls saying price drop .. likely because they trimmed their positions and are waiting to get back in ... oldest game in town ;)
 
Is there a post on this thread somewhere that would explain how to read these 'tea leaves'? I get the gamma and vanna definitions, but if someone could provide a short sentence relative read on these I'd appreciate it (teach me to fish)

Taking a shot at this week (knowing wrongness is high probability): This week expect to stay in $177 range or pulled lower to $174 with possible stronger swings to the upside of $185?
edit: vanna is useful to identify range (most accurate ~20Δ), gamma is most useful as we approach 0dte especially if it aligns with OI walls; i noticed that SMCI "doesn't respect" gamma - it just powers through walls like they don't exist so i use vanna for SMCI and it tends to be accurate (ie good for IC)

edit: for ex SMCI gamma is saying 1100-1200 but vanna is saying 1000-1200 with a possibility of 1300, so my BCS will be 1310 just to be safe; vanna is more powerful indicator of wide supp/res than gamma

edit again! you can think of gamma walls like call/put OI walls, except spot could cross the gamma walls when it's far from expiration; vanna tends to be more "solid walls you can't cross"


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Can't blame him - TSLA is < 50% of ATH while many big names are all at or near ATH (until recently, anyway).
He's selling a beaten down stock to chase other stocks that are at ATH's....what could possibly go wrong???

TSLA may be dead money for the rest of 2024 but the dynamic right now is the slightest hint of a slowdown for Nvidia or any of the chips stocks will trigger a massive overreaction to the downside and the slightest hint of growth for Tesla (or even a surprised partnership) will trigger a massive overreaction to the upside.

Not exactly the right dynamic to be doing what Gary is doing 🤷‍♂️ 🙃
 
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