Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Jim Holder]

SW: Getting close to the target box for a possible low in this structure. Need evidence of a turn. If this is to be the a C of (B) back up, then we should start with 5 up to confirm.

Should try for a (iv)-(v) of v of C.

Credit: StockWaves. Consider a subscription to their excellent service at www.elliottwavetrader.net

 

[Jim Holder]

 

[Max Plaid]

STO 100x 3/22 -c190 @$3.1 -> not looking to be greedy, just wanted a strike far enough out to have time to roll if necessary, unless there's a gap-up, of course, but that seems remote right now

The benefit of trading out of all my existing calls is that I free-up the January 100x +c300's to use for escape in case the weeklies go ITM, so can go back to writing 100x weekly cc's from here

 

[dl003]

Say more pls, love learning from what you see/share.

This is not wave 5. Wave 5 ended at 175.
The schedule has been accelerated by recent negative developments.
By schedule, I mean wave C that was supposed to start in late April @ 230, with target of 143, just started last week @ 206.

However, what is started must be completed. I'm eager to see how much gas the bears still have in the tank between now and EOM. At this level of commitment, any not-as-bad-as-thought results would have a much bigger impact to the upside.

I find this hilarious. It almost seems as if the bears didn't want this. They wanted to sell from higher.

 

[Jim Holder]

This is not wave 5. Wave 5 ended at 175.
The schedule has been accelerated by recent negative developments.
By schedule, I mean wave C that was supposed to start in late April @ 230, with target of 143, just started last week @ 206.
View attachment 1025177
However, what is started must be completed. I'm eager to see how much gas the bears still have in the tank between now and EOM. At this level of commitment, any not-as-bad-as-thought results would have a much bigger impact to the upside.

I find this hilarious. It almost seems like the bears didn't want this. They wanted to sell from higher.

Thanks. How high can we bounce before coming back here to $175 area? I’m looking to sell some -C220 or -C230 July/August CCs if we get to $180-$183 range today.

 

[thenewguy1979]

A zigzap pump is stronger then a vertical straight up pump. Does that also hold true for a dump?

 

[dl003]

Thanks. How high can we bounce before coming back here to $175 area? I’m looking to sell some -C220 or -C230 July/August CCs if we get to $180-$183 range today.

I'm not ChatGPT you know?

 

[Cherry Wine]

Thanks. How high can we bounce before coming back here to $175 area? I’m looking to sell some -C220 or -C230 July/August CCs if we get to $180-$183 range today.

I don't read his post as indicating a bounce before $175, but maybe I'm wrong.

 

[Jim Holder]

I'm not ChatGPT you know?

Lol. You're a generous soul who comes here to share with our eccentric bunch
It's appreciated.

 

[Jim Holder]

I don't read his post as indicating a bounce before $175, but maybe I'm wrong.

"any not-as-bad-as-thought results would have a much bigger impact to the upside."

 

[CHGolferJim]

STO 100x 3/22 -c190 @$3.1 -> not looking to be greedy, just wanted a strike far enough out to have time to roll if necessary, unless there's a gap-up, of course, but that seems remote right now

The benefit of trading out of all my existing calls is that I free-up the January 100x +c300's to use for escape in case the weeklies go ITM, so can go back to writing 100x weekly cc's from here

Going there, too, if my 3/8 -c$175 get to $5.00.

 

[dl003]

"any not-as-bad-as-thought results would have a much bigger impact to the upside."

upside from where?

 

[Jim Holder]

upside from where?

Around here I'm guessing, based on $175 being the low. But if you meant differently pls tell us.

 

[dl003]

Around here I'm guessing, based on $175 being the low. But if you meant differently pls tell us.

175 was the low of wave A. Now we're in wave C.

 

[Jim Holder]

175 was the low of wave A. Now we're in wave C.

Yikes, then per your yellow line $115 is next. Really? Or that's bear's HOPE?
Because if true then for sure it's time to sell longs and go full short even here, yet you closed your shorts per yesterday's post ("I just like to get out of my shorts here as this fresh reading goes in the book").

I'm a bit confused on targets and timing.

Plus: "Entered custom put spreads +2x 185P/-3x 180P exp 3/22. Net credit $1.8. Break-even @ 168.2. It's low enough that I'm comfortable with B/E point @ 168.2. The timing is good enough that I'm confident the stock will remain in range by EOW 3/22."

 

[dl003]

I'm picturing bears in their conference room.

"Do we sell here at 176 guys?"
"I don't know? Why are we selling?"
"Morgan Stanley just lowered their PT. Haven't you heard?"
"But the new PT is still $140 higher than where it is?"
"Also, the factory is shut down. Bad bad bad."
"Don't they still have cars in transit?"
"Yeah, but the hit to EPS gonna be bad"
"They'll chop it up to extraordinary loss and the Street is going to ignore it as a one time item anyway"
"But we're still selling, right?"
"..."

 

[Cherry Wine]

Yikes, then per your yellow line $115 is next. Really? Or that's bear's HOPE?
Because if true then for sure it's time to sell longs and go full short even here, yet you closed your shorts per yesterday's post ("I just like to get out of my shorts here as this fresh reading goes in the book").

I'm a bit confused on targets and timing.

Plus: "Entered custom put spreads +2x 185P/-3x 180P exp 3/22. Net credit $1.8. Break-even @ 168.2. It's low enough that I'm comfortable with B/E point @ 168.2. The timing is good enough that I'm confident the stock will remain in range by EOW 3/22."

View attachment 1025185

Here is my interpretation of what @dl003 is saying:

The bears have triggered this move, and it looks poised to happen, but that is predicated on a lot of really negative sentiment, and if that sentiment is dispelled for any reason, we could get a violent reversal.

So, you can short here and be profitable, but you can also get screwed.

 

[Jim Holder]

Here is my interpretation of what @dl003 is saying:

The bears have triggered this move, and it looks poised to happen, but that is predicated on a lot of really negative sentiment, and if that sentiment is dispelled for any reason, we could get a violent reversal.

So, you can short here and be profitable, but you can also get screwed.

Great summary, thanks!

@dl003 Fair to say then we range here at least to EOM (like you wrote about the -180/+185 bull put spread) and P&D may be the trigger either way?

 

[dl003]

Great summary, thanks!

@dl003 Fair to say then we range here at least to EOM (like you wrote about the -180/+185 bull put spread) and P&D may be the trigger either way?

I don't know. If you want to know if I'm still holding on to those spreads - Yes. I think there's a very good chance they'll end up very profitable for me.

 

[Jim Holder]

I don't know. If you want to know if I'm still holding on to those spreads - Yes. I think there's a very good chance they'll end up very profitable for me.

Thanks. Let us know when you cut them pls and go full short (or long).