SpeedyEddy
Active Member
That was my request as shareholder (and it did not make it into the ER call alas, but nice, if they would do so).
I published it over here, maybe that has hit your memory
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
I published it over here, maybe that has hit your memory
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
you've got some guts..
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
I guess the drop will stop @ $ 920 (last Gap-up) then a (DC) Bounce to 1000-ish and then bye bye
I’d roll it. I think we still need downside protection for deliveries but maybe not this week.
Here's my thought process at the moment from a fundamentals perspective - please feel free to challenge my reasoning, anybody.
I think we get an FOMC statement / press conference / SEP that causes the market to price lower the likelihood of June/July rate cuts, resulting in some sort of macro pullback (that I think the market will ultimately digest - it's just kicking the can down the road a month or two), and the market continues to hesitate with respect to TSLA on the likelihood that Q1 deliveries just aren't going to be very good.
This forms my expectation that - barring a catalyst that causes a sudden shift in the above two outcomes - TSLA continues to chop along in the $160-$185 range until Q1 delivery numbers.
If we're at the bottom of that range when we get the P&D report, and the deliveries number isn't terrible (>=420k), I could see the stock chopping along in that same $160-$185 range into the ER. If deliveries are in the 410k range like Troy is now forecasting, I would have to think we'll be looking to fill that $14x gap post-ER. If deliveries are somehow great, then I have to think we're looking at a rally into the mid-$200s.
Wild cards on my radar: (I'm sure I'm missing plenty)
FSD beta. I'm willing to wager that there's plenty of AI money still waiting to be deployed out there - and TSLA is beaten down enough to be a compelling entry at this price point if it looks like it might be on a trajectory to solve FSD. What would that look like to the market? I think it would be rapid iteration with substantial improvement, ie., 12.4 in April with substantial improvement on 12.3. There was a six week gap between 12.1.2 and 12.3, and there's reason to think that 12.3->12.4 could mimic or even slightly reduce that gap, which would put us in April.
Inflation data. Any data that indicates inflation is reaccelerating and further pushes out rate cuts could become harder for the market to stomach as time goes on. This is a double whammy for TSLA as we all know. Right now my expectation is that inflation will not reaccelerate, but will remain stubbornly sticky from here. How would the Fed react to this? As much as I don't like to say so, probably by resisting rate cuts for longer than I would like.
All of that to say that - for now - I will open CCs on strength pre-P&D, and will look to open +P positions on continued strength.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Another wild card - massive layoff at Tesla to reduce cost. Wasn't there something about this a couple of weeks ago?
When Facebook trimmed their workforce their SP pump.
There won’t be a massive layoff, they aren’t that overweight human capital… WERE There to be, then Katy bar the door.
Tesla: The Ultimate Sentiment Machine
Mar 18, 2024 - 1:54 AM EDTBy Levi at Elliott Wave Trader; Produced with Avi Gilburt
One of the preeminent fundamental analysts in the financial world affirms that (TSLA) stock predominately trades on “sentiment and technicals”. This is our own Lyn Alden. Now, if you dig a bit deeper, you will next discover that the methodology that allows you to track and properly project probable paths is actually available to all. However, the great majority have either had disappointing experiences with this form of analysis from other practitioners, or have not yet seen it’s true power and utility.
Take a quick trip with us as we share how we see TSLA at this current moment in time and then trace the likely targets we are outlining. I’ll first skip you right to the end and then we will rewind to better understand the risk vs reward.
Continued at link:
https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/p...timate-Sentiment-Machine-202403188970704.html
Little bit of a relief rally.. some 12.3 hopium. Some options and buying positioning… bit of overall market sentiment over AI - lifting most boats for today. As I posted earlier, I’m looking to sell calls at ~$185/190 level out 2 months. With a target ~ $197-$200 all in close out return.
If I miss out on some unrealistic rally to $250, i will raise a glass to you all!
Are you kidding me? My -180cc order missed by a penny...
You will get filled. I think TSLA is looking set to go on a end of day run. We will see what it actually does but so far so good.
Sold TSLA $185cc for $0.81 for Friday. Sold NVDA December $720p for $70.10 I would like to have 10x of those but I want to average in. Sold SMCI $730p for $1.15 for Friday.
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