thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Come on Elon - Ron is not getting any younger, Got to show him before he bite the bullet.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
On the way up, the daily RSI for NVDA and QQQ passed 80 and NVDA forward PE hit 55. In the last 5 years when it was overbought like that, most corrections dropped SP by 15-20%. NVDA RSI is still above the midpoint and QQQ is still overbought, so I'll wait to see if it falls further before converting some shares to calls.
Just two days before the NVDA shareholder's meeting too. Wonder if there will be a big move tomorrow.
He's actually only 38. Just that investing in Tesla accelerated his aging massively.
With the NVDA drop today I was excited about the increase in IV and ready to write more puts... but the IV spike was only really for this week. I got assigned on one tranche of -P Friday, and looks like I will get hit with another this week before I can start selling CCs for my wheel.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
OK guys - I BTO +190C TSLA exp 6/28 for $1 @183.20.
Hope this help tipped the balance upward
At least if we pump I don't feel missing out.....
Too much eggs on NVDA anyway,
Hope this help tipped the balance upward
At least if we pump I don't feel missing out.....
Too much eggs on NVDA anyway,
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Correlation between QQQ, SMCI, and NVDA 4hrs timeframes
All hitting lower BB. All drop from overbought down to almost oversold.
Bounce in-coming?
All hitting lower BB. All drop from overbought down to almost oversold.
Bounce in-coming?
Maybe throw in a BTC, look for lead in.
Anyone chance a guess what this play is?
Someone sold 3,840 -C150 9/20/24 @41.58 for $16 million
B/E stock price: $191.60
Looks like an expensive bet—with urgency below bid—that TSLA will be going through the trapdoor at some point.
View attachment 1057670
View attachment 1057669
View attachment 1057671
I threw it into OptionStrat and with IV @~50 he just needs under $180 to start making $$ (profit grows greatly the lower TSLA get below that; but loses $$ above $190). If so perhaps it's not THAT bearish
(He's down -$84k meanwhile...)
LINK TO VIEW TRADE:
https://optionstrat.com/ALaiTQpZSrO7
[ignore Max Profit figure, that's if TSLA goes to $0]
View attachment 1057673
Looks like they're out of this trade.
If they got out at the lows they made about $1.15M in several days.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
BTC and QQQ have been highly correlated, but BTC usually leads… Up AND DOWN..so maybe cautious posture.
i invented a new strategy "strangled ratio" - SMCI 2,812 credit 3.1% ROIC 3dte
only the 825 is long
my bet is to take advantage of the Tech sector drop
for now, the delta of -p is more than half of all the calls, helping make this stable against swings
only the 825 is long
my bet is to take advantage of the Tech sector drop
for now, the delta of -p is more than half of all the calls, helping make this stable against swings
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Anyone holding Baron Partner fund for the 10% SpaceX exposure along with around 30% TSLA? Or is it not worth it to hold the other 60% of the funds holdings?
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
YTD return on fund is -11.57%, 1 year return on the fund is -6.79%, both significantly worse than if you'd just bought an S&P 500 index fund (which returned +15.17% and +26.20% respectively).
TBF their 5 year return at least is better than an index (+134.07% versus +85.73%).
That said, if they owned 10% of SpaceX I'd be a lot more interested, instead it's that 12% of their holdings are SpaceX, so about 726 million bucks worth.... SpaceX last share sale valued the whole company at ~175-180 billion... meaning the fund owns less than 0.5% of the company.
Tesla Price Target Maintained With a $230.00/Share by Cantor Fitzgerald
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard maintained a Buy rating on Tesla and set a price target of $230.00.I was looking ATM through 130 for 7/12, 19, and 26. 53% isn't terrible, but the 65% I saw for this week was more exciting.
Guess it suggests that the dip is a short event.
Tesla Q2 Vehicle Deliveries Seen Trailing Consensus, UBS Says
Jun 24, 2024 12:14 EDTTesla's Q2 vehicle deliveries may trail market consensus by 5.5%, partly because of a "tough quarter" in Europe, UBS Securities said Monday in a report.
The investment firm lowered its forecast for Q2 to 420,000 units from 471,000 units. The latest projection lags behind the Visible Alpha consensus of 445,000 units and pegs deliveries down 10% from a year earlier and up 9% from Q1.
Tesla's 0.99% financing option on the Model Y likely helped boost US sales in Q2, while industry data in China pointed to a 2% increase in the company's domestic retail deliveries in April-May from the previous quarter and a 5% jump from a year earlier, UBS said.
After the release of Q2 delivery figures, UBS said the focus shifts to earnings and then to the company's AI robotaxi on Aug. 8.
Tesla "may be entering another phase where the stock price disconnects from the current fundamentals of the business on hopes of future growth and AI enthusiasm," the report said.
UBS has a neutral rating on the stock with a $147 price target
Tesla shares rose 1% in recent trading Monday.
GEX shows if TSLA can get over $185 it can get help from dealers to run toward $190 again:
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