You COULD probably close this, and re-write something even better. At a point in time over the next ~ 5 trading days. If that 2.4K is your ‘only’ net exposure at this point on this trade.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
That is where I am at too; trading NVDA is just easier right now. I start to get cautious though as the stock gets closer to $1,000.
Good point. I ended up getting -C200 5/17 @6.20 and -C205 5/17 @4.50. Happy to let shares go at $206.50 and 209.50 if TSLA cracks $200 in 6-8 weeks which seems it won't. I also have a bunch up in January -C240 to -C260 for downside protection from here.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Easy for now. That can change any moment. I don't anticipate a big downward move till ER with all the AI euphoria. It just can just make smaller high every week.
I'm staying away from crazy SMCI though.
Waiting for the right moment to jump in with TSLA......which Im more Bearish then Bullish for PD and ER...
SMCI - the "Loco" stock that can swing from -100 to +100 in the same day
Thanks. What would you replace it with NFA?
I have plenty of short calls written so I have decent downside coverage as it is.
bmd00
Member
Comparing Nov 2022 to today there are a lot of similarities. In both cases we had bullish RSI divergence, increasing selling volume leading up to a bottom on Nov 22nd, 2022 and Mar 15th, 2024, and a gap up the day after with increasing volume. I am using Nov 2022 as a reference for today and watching for deviations, which will occur at some point. We shouldn't assume history will repeat itself the same, but we can watch for similarities and differences.
This is exactly what I did leading up to Q3 earnings last year (July - Oct 2023). I noticed SP was behaving similarly to July - Oct 2019 and I used that time as a reference. In 2019, before Q3 earnings report, SP broke above its descending resistance trendline and out of the wedge it had been forming for several months. SP then gaped up on Q3 earnings.
As a huge TSLA bull, I expected and hoped the same thing would happen in 2023. However, SP never broke above its descending resistance line pre-Q3 earnings but instead broke down below its ascending support trendline and subsequently gaped down on Q3 earnings. When I noticed this deviation and the support line break, I exited my long positions and bought puts. I made a killing after Q3 earnings.
For the record, there are a lot of times when TSLA is not necessarily behaving like it did in the past, or not close enough to reference. I struggle with this because I'm always looking for patterns when they don't always exist.
This is exactly what I did leading up to Q3 earnings last year (July - Oct 2023). I noticed SP was behaving similarly to July - Oct 2019 and I used that time as a reference. In 2019, before Q3 earnings report, SP broke above its descending resistance trendline and out of the wedge it had been forming for several months. SP then gaped up on Q3 earnings.
As a huge TSLA bull, I expected and hoped the same thing would happen in 2023. However, SP never broke above its descending resistance line pre-Q3 earnings but instead broke down below its ascending support trendline and subsequently gaped down on Q3 earnings. When I noticed this deviation and the support line break, I exited my long positions and bought puts. I made a killing after Q3 earnings.
For the record, there are a lot of times when TSLA is not necessarily behaving like it did in the past, or not close enough to reference. I struggle with this because I'm always looking for patterns when they don't always exist.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Waiting for TSLA to hit 18X then buy Puts Spread for ER.......
When it pump sell 185C....that the plan
Not selling Puts for now.
When it pump sell 185C....that the plan
Not selling Puts for now.
I've rolled 50 spreads +p130/-p120 (4/26) up to 15 x +p150/-p140, to give them more chance of going ITM before or after earnings.
Is the similarity here - if we're echoing Nov. '22 - creating an expectation for you that there's one more low to be put in?
Well, don’t wait for me.. at the moment I’m busy with nearly every OTHER stock I own at ATH… it’s pretty amazing, financials, JPM AXP, industrials, CMI, CAT, DE close.. and all other tech stocks and EVEN some Travel sector..so I’m focussed on writing my ~ 200K for Q2 for May/June expiration. Just so you/one knows, this isn’t rational.
You’re at 160, if you could move it up to 165/170 range for May or June for a roll maybe on a bounce - although TSLA doesn’t really SEEM to BOUNCE or rally with the overall market. It’s like a rising tide raising all boats, EXCEPT for the ones that are anchored to the sea floor?
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Feeling a lot better now with the Mod also on our side
I wish I had the bandwidth to trade other stocks/sectors like you do ;- )
BTO +P170 6/21 @12.95
Thanks
I'm doing OK on SMCI, maybe because I was smart enough (yes, it happens sometimes!) to not sell pouts when it was up above $1100, but did so when it crashed back to the 900's -> and even then it was a very sensible 2x -p850 for $11, which I closed earlier for +$10 netEasy for now. That can change any moment. I don't anticipate a big downward move till ER with all the AI euphoria. It just can just make smaller high every week.
I'm staying away from crazy SMCI though.
Waiting for the right moment to jump in with TSLA......which Im more Bearish then Bullish for PD and ER...
SMCI - the "Loco" stock that can swing from -100 to +100 in the same day
Actually selling puts anywhere below 900 is fairly comfortable, a) given that it's only 2x, b) that I hold the January 2026 +p800's, it's a very, vert easy trade in this range with the perpetual high IV
NVDA is trickier, although it's looking like the 5c -p900's will do very nicely this week, need to decide what to do next, write 5x close to the money, or 20x well away from the money... but with July +p600's, it's a riskier trade than the SMCI
And I'm still wary of a macro correction, probably will stick with 5x -p900's, don't know!
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
I have been using the previous week closing. Wait till it pullback during the week and sell PUT at the prior week closing
IV crashed so 4 delta 1dte is only ~80 away
not too comfortable with this since weekly Low=855 but giving it a try anyway
and i forgot to do 200 wide
bmd00
Member
It doesn't seem unreasonable to expect at least one more low.
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