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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
I'm positioned bullish, but I would call it more of an emotional positioning rather than via analytical confidence. I have trimmed my position by about 10% to free up cash, but that won't be going back into Tesla unless something changes. I mainly look at the extra cash as living expenses over the next 18 months plus a backstop to support writing puts.
We know this already, thanks to the EU delivery stats maintained by @Troy and @hobbes
Wiki - Tesla Europe Registration Stats
This wiki belongs to the thread EU Market situation and outlook. Click HERE (CTRL-click to open in new tab) to add new data using a Google form. Any forum member can contribute. We encourage you to do so! Your entry will appear after the data is double-checked by other volunteers. If the data...
teslamotorsclub.com
But while it's factually correct to say that Jan + Feb grew +X%, this cannot be extrapolated to the quarter due to the diminishing wave effect...
Look at the EU numbers for 2023, Q1 was the best quarter of the year, but March contributed 65% of those numbers. In order to keep pace with that "growth", March deliveries this year would need to be around 75k, but reality is that they'll probably be close to February, if you look to the trend in Q3 & Q4 last year, month 3 was pretty much the same as month 2 for both
So whereas I would love to be proven wrong, the harsh reality is that by the end of this quarter we're more likely to see -X%, not +X%
And this is why I keep hold of my +puts until after P&D
Not advice!!! Just facts
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I could be completely wrong but IMO any P&D miss seems already factored in. I might add some puts if TSLA into the mid 180s but not going to fight the trend. Still skeptical what will happen during regular market hours but my guess is we pump more. Pure FOMO right now.We know this already, thanks to the EU delivery stats maintained by @Troy and @hobbes
Wiki - Tesla Europe Registration Stats
This wiki belongs to the thread EU Market situation and outlook. Click HERE (CTRL-click to open in new tab) to add new data using a Google form. Any forum member can contribute. We encourage you to do so! Your entry will appear after the data is double-checked by other volunteers. If the data...
But while it's factually correct to say that Jan + Feb grew +15%, this cannot be extrapolated to the quarter due to the diminishing wave effect...
Look at the EU numbers for 2023, Q1 was the best quarter of the year, but March contributed 65% of those numbers. In order to keep pace with that "growth", March deliveries this year would need to be around 75k, but reality is that they'll probably be close to February, if you look to the trend in Q3 & Q4 last year, month 3 was pretty much the same as month 2 for both
So whereas I would love to be proven wrong, the harsh reality is that by the end of this quarter we're more likely to see -15%, not +15%
And this is why I keep hold of my +puts until after P&D
Not advice!!! Just facts
Sure looks like retail was positioned short going into FOMC and JPoW completely changed the narrative. I mean just look at this thread so many of us bought puts.
Here is what El Erian just said:
“We may look back on this week as the week that central banks stepped away from a very strict inflation target to a much broader concept," says @elerianm. "They realized that we are living in a world where the supply side is the problem."
You’ve got yourself a nicely levered P&D play here at the moment… ask yourself - do you feel lucky? If we’re taking out the recent low, it’s going to happen most likely the first week of April.Guys I need some non-advice, earlier this week I bought 12x +P150 4/26 (37 days left) @4.87 with profits from gains. They're trading now around $2.60 (-46%) didn't set a SL (I know, I know).
Do I get out and take what I can get tomorrow at any dip, wait to see if we take out $183 first, or hold out for 4/2 P&D where IV will likely be higher and we may travel down (but we can be trading higher too)?
Yes, I need to manage my positions better so this doesn't happen. Earlier this week I sold dying +C255 9/20 calls at a decent loss, so my batting average is getting hit on both sides
https://optionstrat.com/pFuF3YGkGdmk
Today @54% IV:
View attachment 1030061
At @70% IV:
View attachment 1030064
Not attempting to play a positive run into P&D any further, rather a drop afterwards:
- Closed -C 22Mar$195 at $0.04 (+97%), and kept half those shares uncovered in case need to rescue below or sell shares at $180+
- Opened -C 20Sep$210 at $13.03 with the other half, looking to close 20Sep$230 once price reaches $6 (+55%) to let net credit grow vs. an immediate roll gain of approx. $4.50
- Holding -C 12Apr$155 now negative, but a $165/1mo. zero cost roll is still within reach; focus will be to protect these shares from assignment as the premiums raised YTD income above minimum target
- Sold x00 shares at $173
Well I wasn't able to listen to Pow, so didn't hear first-hand what he said. But macro has been on a perpetual tip for what, 6, 9 months already with no meaningful correction. This is really normal and seems frenzied
For Tesla, nothing changed, the growth and margin story is on hold, EV's are out-of-fashion in the US, the headlines about Biden's EV policy yesterday were misleading and we have a terrible P&D incoming
I'm basing my moves on that, everyone else can FOMO away!
@IV 55% that needs <$160 for meager gains. I don't remember how IV works on a fall, will it rise to like 70-80%, because then the picture becomes more lucrative.
@ IV 75%:
I am not convinced yet that P&D will be terrible... although a skeptical reaction to the pumping of Jan-Feb numbers in the press does make me think of a rug-pull. I cannot see how it will be bullish either though.
This kind of situation typically pushes the big money away from the stock for a quarter or two in a wait-and-see mode. Something else is going to have to do the heavy lifting to get the stock over $200.
If TSLA can hold above 177.5 into any hourly candle, that'll be a good show of strength. Near 177 is where a naked short call play can be initiated with SL above 177.5 on an hourly candle. Low risk imo.
it doesn't matter as long as you strictly adhere to the SL condition.
I didn’t, never hit my target numbers for premium… and you know me - I don’t chase price. But, if the premium isn’t’ there I’m not writing the call - but it’s still informative. If ppl don’t YET want to pay to be long over $197 on 5/17 - should I?
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
TSLA is weakening......
Dog made 1k trading NVDA this week. Enough for kibbles and lot less drama then TSLA so far......
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