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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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Curious how you positioned for it.
I keep it simple…Puts at 165 on 4/5, Puts at 165 on 4/26, Puts at 160 on 4/26, Puts at 155 on 4/26, Puts at 150 on 5/24. Sort of a hedge against all of my shares. And, I have a decent amount of cash available to buy, if we get into the 150’s and 140’s over the next few months. The funny thing is, even if I buy at these 150 and 140 prices, my DCA will actually go up. I have been mostly holding since 2013. And I really did not take advantage of the drop during the late 2022 disaster…only a few shares bought on the way down. I kept thinking, it has got to stop soon, well, as we all know, it did not stop till the low 100’s. Lesson learned!
I did what you did with your post a few posts ago and sold a few thousand of my shares between 220 and 180 (in an IRA, so no taxes owed), not because I was watching TA, I just had a gut feeling we were going to keep going lower based on what I was watching in China and the real estate debacle…and we did.
Good Luck to everyone during these very volatile times!!
 
Hmmm…word is Tesla IR compiled consensus for Q1 2024 is 443k deliveries, with avg/median @ 431k.

Estimates provided by Baird, Barclays, Bernstein, Bank of America, Canaccord, Citibank, Cowen, Daiwa, Deutsche Bank, Evercore ISI, Exane BNP, Goldman Sachs, Guggenheim, HSBC, Jefferies, JP Morgan, Mizuho, Morgan Stanley, Needham & Co, New Street Research, Oppenheimer, Piper Sandler, Redburn, RBC, Truist, Tudor, UBS, Wedbush, Wells Fargo, and Wolfe.


Which will it be:
Beat
Meet
Big miss
Small miss


define big vs small miss, because it'll be one of those two
 
@Yoona I wonder if this is the service Uber Seer is using (this one is tied to NinjaTrader platform).
See @4:00 minutes.


1711932902463.png



Here’s one for TradingView (haven’t tested; looks interesting and possibly useful):



 
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@Yoona I wonder if this is the service Uber Seer is using (this one is tied to NinjaTrader platform).
See @4:00 minutes.


View attachment 1034067


Here’s one for TradingView (haven’t tested):



work in progress... i'm still trying to reverse-engineer his numbers but they are not matching yet

1711936437812.png


i am 10000% sure his Power BI charts are definitely downloading from TV, but it is possible that he is uploading his own source data instead of using TV data, which means his charts are static and not real-time

ie kinda like how you can upload static supp/res lines from your favorite tool into TV: they don't refresh unless you upload new lines again
 
work in progress... i'm still trying to reverse-engineer his numbers but they are not matching yet

View attachment 1034104

i am 10000% sure his Power BI charts are definitely downloading from TV, but it is possible that he is uploading his own source data instead of using TV data, which means his charts are static and not real-time

ie kinda like how you can upload static supp/res lines from your favorite tool into TV: they don't refresh unless you upload new lines again
Cool! Let us know if you get it working. I’d be glad to pay for something like that to use for TSLA trading confluence and directional bias support.
 
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Regarding FSD, the only thing that matters for the stock is increase of the uptake rate. I can't see value at $12,000 for a supervised system. $12,000 requires the perceived path to autonomous driving. On the plus side, it might help add monthly subscriptions for now.

I think we are starting to see a shift in perception for Tesla, now they just need to do a good earnings call.
Well, I am an idiot. @BornToFly I apologize for thinking you were overly optimistic on FSD and what it meant for Tesla. I did my first day of driving on FSD 12.3.3 and my mind is blown. I did more research and have to admit that I didn't understand the problem with a sufficient level of knowledge. I'm in bull mode now... and if I get a good chance to be more leveraged after the P&D numbers then I'll go nuts.

The metric that the AI experts are focused on is total FSD mile trend, saying that only ~10% of people using FSD (Beta) were doing so regularly, the rest treated it as a parlor trick. That is likely to change very quickly now, and an increase in rate of use will be what makes a difference.

(On my 15-mile drive I had two disengagements... one where FSD was just driving like a jerk due to a badly designed intersection. In the other it was objectively going too fast and would have likely slammed on the brakes at the same time I did due to a truck stopping for a left turn by the lead car; FSD was following too closely on a windy road.)

Short TSLA now at your peril...
 
Well, I am an idiot. @BornToFly I apologize for thinking you were overly optimistic on FSD and what it meant for Tesla. I did my first day of driving on FSD 12.3.3 and my mind is blown. I did more research and have to admit that I didn't understand the problem with a sufficient level of knowledge. I'm in bull mode now... and if I get a good chance to be more leveraged after the P&D numbers then I'll go nuts.

The metric that the AI experts are focused on is total FSD mile trend, saying that only ~10% of people using FSD (Beta) were doing so regularly, the rest treated it as a parlor trick. That is likely to change very quickly now, and an increase in rate of use will be what makes a difference.

(On my 15-mile drive I had two disengagements... one where FSD was just driving like a jerk due to a badly designed intersection. In the other it was objectively going too fast and would have likely slammed on the brakes at the same time I did due to a truck stopping for a left turn by the lead car; FSD was following too closely on a windy road.)

Short TSLA now at your peril...
I’m a bull too and also wish to see a nice bull run unleashed. But I don’t know that a rapid change in uptake of FSD is assured and how long until it makes a meaningful contribution to the P&L.

For urban/city driving it’s still an excellent and fun parlor trick that requires close supervision. Sometimes around town I find it easier to just drive without FSD (2022 MX, FSD 12.3.1) than to babysit it. (On the highway and sitting in traffic that’s a different story and I exclusively use FSD.)

Just my 2 cents.
 
Well, I am an idiot. @BornToFly I apologize for thinking you were overly optimistic on FSD and what it meant for Tesla. I did my first day of driving on FSD 12.3.3 and my mind is blown. I did more research and have to admit that I didn't understand the problem with a sufficient level of knowledge. I'm in bull mode now... and if I get a good chance to be more leveraged after the P&D numbers then I'll go nuts.

The metric that the AI experts are focused on is total FSD mile trend, saying that only ~10% of people using FSD (Beta) were doing so regularly, the rest treated it as a parlor trick. That is likely to change very quickly now, and an increase in rate of use will be what makes a difference.

(On my 15-mile drive I had two disengagements... one where FSD was just driving like a jerk due to a badly designed intersection. In the other it was objectively going too fast and would have likely slammed on the brakes at the same time I did due to a truck stopping for a left turn by the lead car; FSD was following too closely on a windy road.)

Short TSLA now at your peril...
I don't want to get mods annoyed (last post, I promise) but feel it is worth mentioning that prior to this drop I'd been using FSD daily on v11 with many disengagement. It's been more than a week supervising v12.3 , I've done several trips (600 miles approx.) from central jersey suburbs to center city philly and back, central jersey to hoboken and jersey city and back. From neighborhoods to single lane/multi-lane highways, to busy city streets. I triggered a handful of disengagements , neither were because I feared an accident, more to do with my co-pilot getting nervous.

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE , keep your eyes on the road, enjoy this advancement, provide feedback when you do disengage, this new stack looks very promising !!
 
I’m a bull too and also wish to see a nice bull run unleashed. But I don’t know that a rapid change in uptake of FSD is assured and how long until it makes a meaningful contribution to the P&L.

For urban/city driving it’s still an excellent and fun parlor trick that requires close supervision. Sometimes around town I find it easier to just drive without FSD (2022 MX, FSD 12.3.1) than to babysit it. (On the highway and sitting in traffic that’s a different story and I exclusively use FSD.)

Just my 2 cents.
The issue is just how many people have paid for it but don't use it. My driving was all touristy exurban and I was amazed at just how well it did. I'm sure there will be times I might not bother with it, and would rather it be a full Level 4 system, but what I see now helps me see a pathway to Level 4. Before I didn't see that.

It will not impact the P&L for several quarters, but it is one of those step-change events that improves brand loyalty. But, this is an options thread, and purpose for posting it is that I think we have a leading indicator of a major change.
 
TSLA the day after the earnings call for the past four (!) quarters:

23.4Q (1/25): -12.13% 🩸
23.3Q (10/19) : -9 .30% 🩸
23.2Q (7/20) : -9 .74% 🩸
23.1Q (4/20) : -9 .75% 🩸
(Credit: Bb1btc)

Are you sure about the 23.4Q drop? The SP might've opened lower, but it ultimately closed higher: