Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[adiggs]

thanks

this is too good to be true, 10% ROIC... what i don't understand is why MM is practically begging me to take 68 coz this is the easiest money i've ever made

OI is 700, gamma is 700, maxpain is 800

the probability of close=700 is very high yet they sell me cc 695 for 73

even if they dump, they gave me breakeven too low at 627

i'm gonna investigate some more: i must be missing something, there must be a catch

or perhaps i'm just a real newbie to this selling ATM CC

As you well know if you think you're missing something and its just too good to be true... then it is

My suggestion - even if you see these as different (and I also see these as different from the emotional and how well I can manage them side), analyze the buy-write as if you were selling a CSP at the covering call strike instead.

If you think the buy-write (buy at 700; sell the 695 call) is a no-brainer, then also analyze the sale of a 695 cash secured put. Is that equally a no-brainer? I guess the advice I'm getting to here is that whether you actually see the risk/reward on these two alternative positions, you've got a couple of people telling you that they are at minimum close enough that if one is a no-brainer, then so is the other.


I think that the real key to generating great income using buy-writes is for the share price to be relatively low. Right now with TSLA might be a good time - buy shares at 145 and sell the 135 calls for example. For me at least I am emotionally able to handle being closer to the money like this, than I would be from selling the 135 strike put.

An important component of that emotional benefit is that its pretty easy for me to hold until the covering call has effectively no time value remaining which usually happens on the last day, and there are plenty of circumstances where the covering calls goes ITM and then back out for a max gain. With the CSP I'd be more likely to take the early roll and turn a winner for the week into a roll that I resolve (hopefully) next week.

So the emotional component is really important, at least the way I see it. But it doesn't turn a bad idea into a no-brainer, or vice versa

 

[ChiefRollo]

If Retail keeps buying PUTS, MM will keep taking the SP up .
Added 30 for 4/26 PUTS @100 strike for .17 each ... sacrifice

Hope Elon is well rested and rehearsing for the conf call so that his message is crisp

Thanks for taking one for the team!

 

[ChiefRollo]

As you well know if you think you're missing something and its just too good to be true... then it is

My suggestion - even if you see these as different (and I also see these as different from the emotional and how well I can manage them side), analyze the buy-write as if you were selling a CSP at the covering call strike instead.

If you think the buy-write (buy at 700; sell the 695 call) is a no-brainer, then also analyze the sale of a 695 cash secured put. Is that equally a no-brainer? I guess the advice I'm getting to here is that whether you actually see the risk/reward on these two alternative positions, you've got a couple of people telling you that they are at minimum close enough that if one is a no-brainer, then so is the other.


I think that the real key to generating great income using buy-writes is for the share price to be relatively low. Right now with TSLA might be a good time - buy shares at 145 and sell the 135 calls for example. For me at least I am emotionally able to handle being closer to the money like this, than I would be from selling the 135 strike put.

An important component of that emotional benefit is that its pretty easy for me to hold until the covering call has effectively no time value remaining which usually happens on the last day, and there are plenty of circumstances where the covering calls goes ITM and then back out for a max gain. With the CSP I'd be more likely to take the early roll and turn a winner for the week into a roll that I resolve (hopefully) next week.

So the emotional component is really important, at least the way I see it. But it doesn't turn a bad idea into a no-brainer, or vice versa

FWIW, I second adiggs and would add that if buy-write is a long-term trading strategy for income, it's key to time the building of the "engine". For the companies we like and know well (as adiggs said in the past regarding owning and experiencing Tesla / FSD is almost a requirement to trading TSLA), leverage the oversold opportunities to acquire shares and build those engines; selling CC off of them can also / should benefit from proper timing (would sell CC when near / in overbought state with expectation of SP trending down).

 

[Yoona]

As you well know if you think you're missing something and its just too good to be true... then it is

My suggestion - even if you see these as different (and I also see these as different from the emotional and how well I can manage them side), analyze the buy-write as if you were selling a CSP at the covering call strike instead.

If you think the buy-write (buy at 700; sell the 695 call) is a no-brainer, then also analyze the sale of a 695 cash secured put. Is that equally a no-brainer? I guess the advice I'm getting to here is that whether you actually see the risk/reward on these two alternative positions, you've got a couple of people telling you that they are at minimum close enough that if one is a no-brainer, then so is the other.


I think that the real key to generating great income using buy-writes is for the share price to be relatively low. Right now with TSLA might be a good time - buy shares at 145 and sell the 135 calls for example. For me at least I am emotionally able to handle being closer to the money like this, than I would be from selling the 135 strike put.

An important component of that emotional benefit is that its pretty easy for me to hold until the covering call has effectively no time value remaining which usually happens on the last day, and there are plenty of circumstances where the covering calls goes ITM and then back out for a max gain. With the CSP I'd be more likely to take the early roll and turn a winner for the week into a roll that I resolve (hopefully) next week.

So the emotional component is really important, at least the way I see it. But it doesn't turn a bad idea into a no-brainer, or vice versa

thanks, 2 rounds of DITM CC this week worked out well for my trial discord now on week 7, net=2798

secret sauce: take profits early when you see it

round 3 is trying SMCI -p695 CSP! let's see which one is easier to manage... OI 700-800, gamma 700, maxpain 800

this is definitely less stressful than spreads

 

[Arul]

Tesla earnings calls are always a crapshoot due to our favorite CEO.

But I cannot recall a recent one where so much depends on what he says for the short term SP. The stock is primed for a vicious short covering rally. It also appears ready to test 100.

Buy the cheapest options you can find 20% out in either direction for next week? Of course, at that point he will make tepid remarks and projections that allow the SP to go flat for a while lol.

Gamblers only it seems.

That means buy calls $116 or $174. $174 wont happen because earnings are bad but the premium is high 26.00 ?

 

[ProfessorZoom]

Laying off the 40 person marketing department and then releasing this is hilarious ngl

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782804631359193275

 

[vikings123]

Laying off the 40 person marketing department and then releasing this is hilarious ngl

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782804631359193275

Priceless lol.

That model 3 pump might have been the high for today. Let's see where we finish in regular market trading.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Does Model 3 Performance being launched on earnings day tell us something? Or is it a mere coincidence?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

What does Model 3 Performance being launched on earnings day tell us?

If that's all they got to counter the bearish things, gonna be a looooooong earnings call for Elon and co lol

 

[john tanglewoo]

thanks, 2 rounds of DITM CC this week worked out well for my trial discord now on week 7, net=2798

secret sauce: take profits early when you see it

Yoona! Can I shadow these trades yet?

 

[bmd00]

More valuable than any book, any analyst, or any technical signal is learning from your own mistakes. There’s too much noise out there in the TMC and X. Too many opinions all mostly rooted in emotions or with some agenda. Until recently, I really only studied the chart, past and present, looking for patterns and anomalies. I also followed many of the big tsla “influencers”. The vast majority of what you hear and see is noise. Your best teacher is your old self.

I keep a trade journal going back to 2021 when I started following tsla. I have recorded all my trades, the reasons for those trades, and my thoughts at that time. Looking back, it’s truly incredible the patterns I find within myself. And without recognizing these patterns, I’m bound to repeat them.

FOMO and greed is going to run rampant throughout the rest of this fall from both the bulls and bears until we reach a climax and a reversal point. Bears will get scared on pops like today and cover their shorts. This will cause some bulls to get FOMO. Ultimately, this leads SP to have big jumps and falls.

Many people are going to try to predict the exact bottom. Out of all the opinions someone is going to be right. After all, there are only 146 options to pick between where SP stands today and 0. Unless you think this stock is going bankrupt, which I think everyone in this group can rule out.

Most importantly is to watch how the stock behaves each day and each week. Watch the volume and interesting anomalies in the price action. Watch the momentum and keep an eye out for divergences.

The most money and the highest success rate will be made on breakouts and reversals. If there is no obvious and clear breakout or reversal, wait for the stock to setup properly. The ability to wait for the stock to setup or reach one of these pivotal points, which can sometimes take months, is perhaps the most important determinant for success as a trader. Most traders lack the discipline and the patience to wait.

 

[thenewguy1979]

More layoff coming - 2700 in Texas

https://www.mysanantonio.com/business/article/tesla-texas-layoffs-19418016.php

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

More layoff coming - 2700 in Texas

https://www.mysanantonio.com/business/article/tesla-texas-layoffs-19418016.php

These are all part of the same overall layoff. It's not more or less. Hardily ever when a mass layoff gets announced do all the planned layoffs happen on the same day. Sometimes it takes weeks/months to complete the announced layoff..

 

[uscbucsfan]

And per that article: “Terminations will begin during a 14-period day beginning June 14. ”

What are the chances of the media insinuating these layoffs again at that time as “more” layoffs?

There was already a large number of layoffs immediately after the 10% broke. Some of the news that employees were locked out were from Texas, so while this is an additional layoff to that, it is misleading to present it as a new round. It looks like GigaTexas and Shanghai have the biggest layoffs.

 

[bmd00]

“Although prediction of target levels well in advance can be done surprisingly often, such prediction can be irrelevant to making money trading the stock market. All one really needs to know at the time is whether to be long or short.”

- from Elliott Wave Principle by Frost and Prechter

 

[thenewguy1979]

thanks, 2 rounds of DITM CC this week worked out well for my trial discord now on week 7, net=2798

secret sauce: take profits early when you see it

View attachment 1040948

round 3 is trying SMCI -p695 CSP! let's see which one is easier to manage... OI 700-800, gamma 700, maxpain 800

this is definitely less stressful than spreads
View attachment 1040955

Hi Yoona - what Capital amount are needed to make these weekly incomes? Thanks

 

[stealthyc]

Hi Yoona - what Capital amount are needed to make these weekly incomes? Thanks

View attachment 1041015

100k was the challenge as I recall

 

[Yoona]

Hi Yoona - what Capital amount are needed to make these weekly incomes? Thanks

View attachment 1041015

$100k, but this is just a trial to satisfy my curiosity if i can do a discord

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Man it sucks to be patient and wait a year for something to happen, in this case the 146 gap from April 2023 to fill, only to get it and feel like your hands are tied into taking any action.

I had plans for months now to flip to bullish positioning if the 146 gap was filled, even if I knew a further drop to 125 level was possible. I'm quite bullish on FSD next year and was more than willing to accumulate shares throughout this year with spare cash and leverage up during this period of auto sector weakness.

But the announcement of the Elon comp package vote for the shareholders meeting has put all those plans in chaos. Hard to know how much damage Elon has done to the confidence of the largest shareholders. I view the vote going against Elon/Tesla is quite likely the mother of all black swan events. Even if somehow 6-12 months later they get things figured out with a new comp package, I think you'd see TSLA's valuation easily go below 100 and probably into the 70-80 range. Simply can't take the risk.

The logical side of my brain says that Elon already has too much vested in Tesla's Autonomy to walk away. Would take years to get back to that point and how would they get the data set scale. But as we've all seen with Elon over the past year, he'll do what he wants no matter how much risk and I would not put it past him to walk away and essentially take the autonomy team with him if he doesn't get paid.

If anyone has any suggestions on how to play the next month and a half relatively safely just in the case the share price does take off, I'd welcome suggestions. As it is right now, I simply don't feel comfortable making a pivot in my positioning until after the shareholders vote

 

[Yoona]

Yoona! Can I shadow these trades yet?

wait i am in a mtg

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