Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[vikings123]

Man it sucks to be patient and wait a year for something to happen, in this case the 146 gap from April 2023 to fill, only to get it and feel like your hands are tied into taking any action.

I had plans for months now to flip to bullish positioning if the 146 gap was filled, even if I knew a further drop to 125 level was possible. I'm quite bullish on FSD next year and was more than willing to accumulate shares throughout this year with spare cash and leverage up during this period of auto sector weakness.

But the announcement of the Elon comp package vote for the shareholders meeting has put all those plans in chaos. Hard to know how much damage Elon has done to the confidence of the largest shareholders. I view the vote going against Elon/Tesla is quite likely the mother of all black swan events. Even if somehow 6-12 months later they get things figured out with a new comp package, I think you'd see TSLA's valuation easily go below 100 and probably into the 70-80 range. Simply can't take the risk.

If anyone has any suggestions on how to play the next month and a half relatively safely just in the case the share price does take off, I'd welcome suggestions.

I think what @bmd00 posted earlier today applies very well to your situation. IMO you are feeling FOMO. I think it's ok to miss out on a 10 to 15% gain if you are worried about getting in and the price dropping further.

1. Think about diversifying, we are all so knee deep in Tesla that sometimes other opportunities don't really register in our mind.
2. Wait for the breakout, I honestly don't think the stock will get away from us, even if it does it's not like we are not invested in it already. I've been sitting on all cash in my IRA for a couple of months. I really should be deploying it now but I don't have any confidence in the short term and the stock is technically broken. I'm also looking to diversify.
3. I honestly doubt the FSD take rate will improve dramatically so like most people have said tough to see where the new positive catalyst will come from.

That said, I would not be surprised if they run TSLA despite bad earnings and outlook. It would be easy to latch on to any positive news to run it up. Like I said I'm content sitting it out, it's not like we are going to have an NVDA like earnings jump.

 

[ChiefRollo]

Feels a bit eerie not hearing from Jim H. & dl today...

 

[thenewguy1979]

Feels a bit eerie not hearing from Jim H. & dl today...

busy loading the boats

 

[MikeC]

Feels a bit eerie not hearing from Jim H. & dl today...

Jim had previously said he’d be busy with Passover on ER day.

 

[elasalle]

Man it sucks to be patient and wait a year for something to happen, in this case the 146 gap from April 2023 to fill, only to get it and feel like your hands are tied into taking any action.

I had plans for months now to flip to bullish positioning if the 146 gap was filled, even if I knew a further drop to 125 level was possible. I'm quite bullish on FSD next year and was more than willing to accumulate shares throughout this year with spare cash and leverage up during this period of auto sector weakness.

But the announcement of the Elon comp package vote for the shareholders meeting has put all those plans in chaos. Hard to know how much damage Elon has done to the confidence of the largest shareholders. I view the vote going against Elon/Tesla is quite likely the mother of all black swan events. Even if somehow 6-12 months later they get things figured out with a new comp package, I think you'd see TSLA's valuation easily go below 100 and probably into the 70-80 range. Simply can't take the risk.

The logical side of my brain says that Elon already has too much vested in Tesla's Autonomy to walk away. Would take years to get back to that point and how would they get the data set scale. But as we've all seen with Elon over the past year, he'll do what he wants no matter how much risk and I would not put it past him to walk away and essentially take the autonomy team with him if he doesn't get paid.

If anyone has any suggestions on how to play the next month and a half relatively safely just in the case the share price does take off, I'd welcome suggestions. As it is right now, I simply don't feel comfortable making a pivot in my positioning until after the shareholders vote

Sell some ITM PUTS for Aug/Sept or even Jan - that should give a cushion both ways.
cheers!!

 

[Max Plaid]

Laying off the 40 person marketing department and then releasing this is hilarious ngl

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782804631359193275

Was out playing music (of course) and was wondering why on Earth you'd announce such a thing prior to the earnings call...

 

[CHGolferJim]

Might roll half of 26Apr$155 to twice as many 26Apr$162.50 for some cushion in case of an ER spike, still expecting a drop. This would raise % of shares covered from 70% to 85% through Friday when 40% should expire, so still some reserve in case have to rescue the remaining $155.

Done for $230 debit (which didn’t change much throughout the day’s SP fluctuations).

 

[dl003]

remember to call and tell your loved ones you love them.

 

[CHGolferJim]

remember to call and tell your loved ones you love them.

As a Texan, do you have an opinion about the relocation of incorporation from DE to TX?

 

[thenewguy1979]

remember to call and tell your loved ones you love them.

The dog loved you guys. There I said it.

If you dont see me Tommorow , check the local Wendy. Ask for the handsome young dog working the counter

 

[dl003]

As a Texan, do you have an opinion about the relocation of incorporation from DE to TX?

I was originally from California and so to me, Texas is a no nonsense state that is very pro business. I'm fully in support of the proposal.

 

[TexasGator]

i have some Oct24 -P175s that are "safe" to about $137 or so. Assuming the close is around 145, but dumps AH - those can be at risk of assignment, correct? trying to decide between rolling, flipping some, or riding them out

 

[Patrick66]

i will buy [NVDA] at 625ish

On a fundamentals basis I doubt you will see $625, although you can get yourself to an effective price around there. Really depends on if you want to hold the stock or just leverage it. I'm trying to slowly accumulate with effective prices around $750.

I'm still scratching my head why the [TSLA] stock hasn't crashed yet

I would call what it has done a slow burn, and at some point that burn will sputter out. We are going to have an interesting month or so, and I still don't have a clue where I think we will end up. Looking at the catalysts needed to move up I think there are three on the table-- the earnings call, Elon's pay packages, and something that proves the company is solid (still).

If I tried to torture myself into thinking like Elon, I have to think he has realized that things are faltering and some meaningful change is needed. I don't think he can be in his denial bubble any more. I would see him resigning at $100, but his justification is a wildcard. The real question though is what does|can Tesla do to return to growth.

 

[Yoona]

On a fundamentals basis I doubt you will see $625, although you can get yourself to an effective price around there. Really depends on if you want to hold the stock or just leverage it. I'm trying to slowly accumulate with effective prices around $750.

I would call what it has done a slow burn, and at some point that burn will sputter out. We are going to have an interesting month or so, and I still don't have a clue where I think we will end up. Looking at the catalysts needed to move up I think there are three on the table-- the earnings call, Elon's pay packages, and something that proves the company is solid (still).

If I tried to torture myself into thinking like Elon, I have to think he has realized that things are faltering and some meaningful change is needed. I don't think he can be in his denial bubble any more. I would see him resigning at $100, but his justification is a wildcard. The real question though is what does|can Tesla do to return to growth.

nvda 625 is unlikely

 

[Yoona]

tsla looking one month ahead (chance of ~120)

 

[Patrick66]

Texas is a no nonsense state that is very pro business. I'm fully in support of the proposal.

Texas isn't really a huge "rule of law" state though (more Libertarian), and when it comes to corporate structure you really have the fundamental benefits of Delaware. If Tesla's lawyers were making a solid case for the change of residency it would be one thing... but the proposal sounds much more like a child taking their ball and going home.

I am not certain what the benefits to Tesla in being a Texas corporation are, but the company hasn't done anything to try to communicate them.

 

[dl003]

The last time VIX was at 15.8 was April 10th, SPY was 514. VIX is 15.8 right now after reaching 20 last week and SPY is 505.4. This means, despite puts getting taken off, there's been real selling in the market. This is a DCB, which can last into Friday - early next week but then the downtrend should resume. Whether it takes a more moderate pace vs the last 3 weeks depends on whether we have any geopolitics risks coming up. Early June is when everything should bottom out.

 

[Max Plaid]

On a fundamentals basis I doubt you will see $625, although you can get yourself to an effective price around there. Really depends on if you want to hold the stock or just leverage it. I'm trying to slowly accumulate with effective prices around $750.

I would call what it has done a slow burn, and at some point that burn will sputter out. We are going to have an interesting month or so, and I still don't have a clue where I think we will end up. Looking at the catalysts needed to move up I think there are three on the table-- the earnings call, Elon's pay packages, and something that proves the company is solid (still).

If I tried to torture myself into thinking like Elon, I have to think he has realized that things are faltering and some meaningful change is needed. I don't think he can be in his denial bubble any more. I would see him resigning at $100, but his justification is a wildcard. The real question though is what does|can Tesla do to return to growth.

Very obviously fast-track a compact Model 2, simple, that's what everyone wants

Not sure he's resign at $100, was $100 the beginning of last year

Aside that the markets want to see Elon as CEO of Tesla again, not the CTC of X (Chief Conspiracy Theorist)

A fully-engaged Elon in Beast-Mode is a force of nature

But first let it dump so my puts can print, please...

 

[OptionsGrinder]

Texas isn't really a huge "rule of law" state though (more Libertarian), and when it comes to corporate structure you really have the fundamental benefits of Delaware. If Tesla's lawyers were making a solid case for the change of residency it would be one thing... but the proposal sounds much more like a child taking their ball and going home.

I am not certain what the benefits to Tesla in being a Texas corporation are, but the company hasn't done anything to try to communicate them.

Ya and Delaware was so beneficial btw Tesla laid out in detail the differences, pluses, minuses and all considerations of Texas vs Delaware.. its in their lengthy SEC filing if you care to read it

 

[BornToFly]

The last time VIX was at 15.8 was April 10th, SPY was 514. VIX is 15.8 right now after reaching 20 last week and SPY is 505.4. This means, despite puts getting taken off, there's been real selling in the market. This is a DCB, which can last into Friday - early next week but then the downtrend should resume. Whether it takes a more moderate pace vs the last 3 weeks depends on whether we have any geopolitics risks coming up. Early June is when everything should bottom out.

Also lots of earnings this week and next.
Macro tone for the quarter will depend on results (I would think).