Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Max Plaid]

Start of a recovery hopefully

13k China numbers are OK, but not amazing when you consider that the weekly numbers end of 2023 were hitting 18k after the M3H ramp, so they're either exporting more cars, "building inventory" or producing less

At this moment, the small real-time view we get (Scandinavia + Netherlands), it's approximately -15% QoQ and -30% versus 23Q2, the USA is complete quest although anecdotal news of increased sales due to d-finance rate offer

More clarity next week when Europe country numbers are reported

In other news, I see Tesla have re-introduced silver for the MSX!

 

[DaBooster]

Very quite here this morning,

If we dip sub 175 I might sell a few 165 CSP for this Friday

 

[Arul]

Based on drone footage though it is pretty clear they are averaging well over 1k/week, although there was a bit of a reduction with the accelerator pedal issue. I don't think the CT deliveries will be material for another quarter though; 12 vs 24k is still a nothingburger.

So stay out until after delivery numbers are in? I think I am planning to go short until a week or so before Q2 earnings report. (I still have too many TSLA shares so I guess it is really more of a hedge than being short.) I'll wait and see how things open tomorrow though before committing-- I want to see 183 again first.

Could you please explain your hedge strategy.

 

[2Pearls]

I have read that Nvidia’s next chip, Blackwell, will reduce the time for learning Autonomous driving to about 6 months and they can use simulation of driving to feed the system vs. all the Billions of miles Tesla has with FSD. Meaning that the moat Tesla has vs. Any other auto company on autonomous driving is no longer 5-6 years.

And, Tesla even mentioned that if they have a client that wants to license their autonomous driving technology, it would take 3+ years to bring the car to market.

So, if we are all thinking that TSLA stock will jump because they are close or at autonomous Driving later this year, that, any auto company that buys the new Blackwell chip will be close behind and thus, TSLA stock will not have the moat we all thought?

Your thoughts?

 

[tivoboy]

NVDA is up $30 to $1100 overnight
AAPL up $1 overnight
TSLA down $1 overnight

Seems NVDA is intent on getting passed 1150 this week.

New AI target on NVDA moved from 1158 to 1248..same caveats as always.

 

[jeewee3000]

I have read that Nvidia’s next chip, Blackwell, will reduce the time for learning Autonomous driving to about 6 months and they can use simulation of driving to feed the system vs. all the Billions of miles Tesla has with FSD. Meaning that the moat Tesla has vs. Any other auto company on autonomous driving is no longer 5-6 years.

And, Tesla even mentioned that if they have a client that wants to license their autonomous driving technology, it would take 3+ years to bring the car to market.

So, if we are all thinking that TSLA stock will jump because they are close or at autonomous Driving later this year, that, any auto company that buys the new Blackwell chip will be close behind and thus, TSLA stock will not have the moat we all thought?

Your thoughts?

I'll be brief since this is OT.

This sounds like a nice PowerPoint presentation. The next chip in development will perform a task that has not yet been achieved (autonomous driving) with simulated data (which Tesla states can cover a lot but not all edge cases).

I have more trust in the company that has trial-and-errored on the autonomy path for years (and really know what they are talking about) as opposed to theoretical predictions regarding future hardware.

Will training become easier and easier since compute keeps increasing in power and efficiency? Absolutely. But reaching unsupervised autonomy without geofencing is as of yet unproven so I remain skeptical.

 

[dl003]

Completely out of my 5/31 put spreads. Only 6/7 left.

 

[elasalle]

I have read that Nvidia’s next chip, Blackwell, will reduce the time for learning Autonomous driving to about 6 months and they can use simulation of driving to feed the system vs. all the Billions of miles Tesla has with FSD. Meaning that the moat Tesla has vs. Any other auto company on autonomous driving is no longer 5-6 years.

And, Tesla even mentioned that if they have a client that wants to license their autonomous driving technology, it would take 3+ years to bring the car to market.

So, if we are all thinking that TSLA stock will jump because they are close or at autonomous Driving later this year, that, any auto company that buys the new Blackwell chip will be close behind and thus, TSLA stock will not have the moat we all thought?

Your thoughts?

How many companies want to invest Billions in AI, R&D and what have you, if there is a turnkey solution available?

With turnkey solution, they just need to buy the hardware and Tesla Chips that go in the car, no need for GPU clusters, R&D, AI experts etc etc.

If they gave up on SuC charging ....

 

[elasalle]

Likely not the China numbers, but SP getting punished for the XAi cap raise. Market thinks Elon more thinly spread/focused on AI, and may over think that FSD and Optimus also now go to xAI. this needs to be digested.

No FSD, Optimus not going to xAI. tesla likely will use Grok from xAI ...

Buckle up until Jun 13 vote .. ~ 2 more weeks

 

[thenewguy1979]

BTC AAPL
BTC TSLA
BTC NVDA

bailed out with earning . Not waiting for Fed to speak.

 

[Jim Holder]

 

[BornToFly]

Sold 50X CSP -175 for Friday near the bottom. Waiting for some recovery to sell 192.5CC.

 

[dl003]

Likely not the China numbers, but SP getting punished for the XAi cap raise. Market thinks Elon more thinly spread/focused on AI, and may over think that FSD and Optimus also now go to xAI. this needs to be digested.

No FSD, Optimus not going to xAI. tesla likely will use Grok from xAI ...

Buckle up until Jun 13 vote .. ~ 2 more weeks

Agreed
The funny thing is nobody ever priced stuff like Grok into TSLA valuation. We know Elon can't take Optimus or FSD away. And we know AGI requires TSLA level of hardware to collect data for and train. More fear, more opportunities. That's why I think Elon's "not comfortable" comment was kinda pointless, at least for the next 3 years.

 

[BornToFly]

My premium target for 192.5CC isn't being met. Anyone think we are above 190 on Friday?

 

[thenewguy1979]

Agreed
The funny thing is nobody ever priced stuff like Grok into TSLA valuation. We know Elon can't take Optimus or FSD away. And we know AGI requires TSLA level of hardware to collect data for and train. More fear, more opportunities. That's why I think Elon's "not comfortable" comment was kinda pointless, at least for the next 3 years.

down more or have we hit base?

 

[dl003]

down more or have we hit base?

for this week I don't see much more potential for downside. The rug pull happens later this week or next week.

 

[thenewguy1979]

for this week I don't see much more potential for downside. The rug pull happens later this week or next week.

got it. If it going down Imotep would have done it.

 

[OptionsGrinder]

My premium target for 192.5CC isn't being met. Anyone think we are above 190 on Friday?

I see $180 as a pivot point for immediate upside, since did not get it this morning, was looking to see if downside would develop below $171. Not yet… stuck in this mini-range. What keeps me from selling $185-cc’s right now off of a weak open is the possibility of overnight news. Over $180 could see low $190’s. Trying to stay patient to see if there are anymore clues today

 

[thenewguy1979]

Market too hot with NVDA leading the way. It should deflate once the AI euphoria is ease up. TSLA is going along since its now parts of the AI gang

 

[BornToFly]

Ended up selling some 197.5CC for next week. I don't see us getting over 200, and setting new highs since March 1st, the week before the Shareholder vote.