thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Thanks Yoona. Based on the charts do you think there is a potential for a rug pull or more like a retracement to sub 1100 based on Vanna this week?
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
greeks say 1100 and no stocks stay above the upper BB for too long, but order flow is still bullish
therefore, no bets until it settles down after the split date coz a reversal could be violent
switched to SMCI ATM CC which gives 2.99% ROIC weekly income, 3dte
it's not just specifically for this strike. Puts move in tandem and so do calls.
Having the compute to learn a model is arguably the most trivial piece of all of the stuff that needs to come together to learn a functional and useful model (such as autonomous driving). Existence or non-existence of the Blackwell chip only meaningfully changes the size of the moat relative to any competitor that has all of the elements in place for learning a model to perform autonomous driving.
Using simulation to feed the system is an important contributor to the set of data being used to train a system. It is not a replacement for real data in an open ended system such as driving. Pure simulation works for games such as Go or Chess in order to learn valid moves that improves one's odds of winning the game. Simulation does not work for predicting somebody sweeping the board clear in a fit of rage.
The moat that a Tesla, Waymo, MobileEye, Cruise, etc.. is not just a function of how many Nvidia chips they own. Its also a function of the data they've gathered, the ongoing data they are gathering (data workflow), their testing and regression testing regimen, the ability to train and re-train the model (this is where the chips come in, enabling faster training times), efficiency of the software, engagement with regulators and first responders, and all of the myriad pile of stuff that needs to come together to have an autonomous driving solution.
Heck - software developers can easily develop inefficient software that will overwhelm the fastest hardware and make it seem slow. Its really the software that is slow. On the other end of the spectrum really clever software developers can make bad hardware seem fast though it takes a lot more work.
Two companies with equally robust and expensive systems for development and training of their autonomous driving models, then yes - the company with the newer chips will make faster progress than the company with slower chips because they'll be able to do more iterations training the model, and thereby improve it faster. And that's it.
TSLA
5-Day: $179.12
20-Day: $177.42
50-Day: $171.69
100-Day: $184.45
200-Day: $213.00
5-Day: $179.12
20-Day: $177.42
50-Day: $171.69
100-Day: $184.45
200-Day: $213.00
Well, I was busy all afternoon and missed the opportunity to trade out of my -c170's at $173, boo! Finally got free around 18:00 and feeling itchy decided to sell some NVDA -p1100 @$8.1, after which it promptly started falling. You're welcome!
Note these are now the short leg of a 5/31 -p1100 / Jan 2025 +p900 calendar, lots of time to fix if they go ITM
Note these are now the short leg of a 5/31 -p1100 / Jan 2025 +p900 calendar, lots of time to fix if they go ITM
The reason it has not dropped yet is this. The 10 weekly SMA is currently hanging below at 170. The trend is bullish as long as TSLA remains above this SMA. Therefore, I expect when TSLA finally trades below it to get to low 160s, it will be a short lived affair, which means the timing has to be right for the bears, or maybe we should call them the fake bears. There will be some sort of "news" which will lead to a stop raid for 1-3 days, then the stock should close the week above 170, signaling the bear trap is shut. I expect it to happen next week, but this week is fine too.
On NVDA, I see room for 1200-1250, but it really feels overbought right now. Sold some -P1100 today for 6/14. Happy to acquire, happy for them to expire.
$185 is really tall/loaded for this week:
Purple is aggregate of GEX skew:
Purple is aggregate of GEX skew:
In case some are wondering why I'm not updating my Patreon page anymore. I called it quit since the image uploading function was trash. Stressed me out every time I needed to post anything. I'm now uploading my charts to X here x.com
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Closed out my NVDA long for 2x profits. Not risking for pullback. Done for the day 
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Careful with NVDA. Some of us been burn when stock took a nosedive that 1 day in April.
The split is on June 10th. That can bring some turbulence as Yoona mentioned.
Planning to sell Puts but waiting for it to retrace to near known support at 1034. Lower premium but less risk.
Heck even 6 delta got burned that day.
Have an exit plan.
Attachments
If smart money is buying at 1K, are they that smart?
or what is their intent? Mark large contracts on tape, for the world to see, create fomo and exit unnoticed?
dark pools for activities where they want no one to see?
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