I'm going to wait till tomorrow, preferably EOD. I still think it's going to go down, but theta has been brutal this week. Closed my 170/165 for small gains, but I'd rather not open new short in this zone.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
You don't have to feel so bad now. It back down to 1200.
Yeah, I sold one more -CC 7/21 $1290 at $68, yesterdays were $52…I think it went over $70.. apple will probably rally Monday, possibly interaday and depending on how strong their AI feature set for IOS 18 is, and partnerships, etc… could be even higher..or not.
I don’t think this is the traditional buy the rumor sell the news event, but it is more WHATS THE NEWS
Great job!
As I have followed and traded fashion in the past I don't think LULU is any different. My prediction is LULU like nearly most of them will fade away just matter of time. This is similar in fast food / restaurant companies. Out of fashion is a real thing. I just don't have the guts to short stocks anymore.
(CMG is one of those exceptions that I got out too early)
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Thanks @tivoboy. What does the AI say about AAPL, would it hit 200 next week?
Contemplating the below for tomorrow. Near 1 to 4 loss win ratio.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
TSLA in green guy. Up almost $3. Guess the rate cut in ECB and the potential cut for USA is making an impact.
Big range, but AI says 203.5…so that could be a nice little spread going into an event..
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Yeah, I wouldn't bet against AAPL under $220 right now. The curious iPad Pro launch just left so much out as to why someone would actually want one of these things (that I am now typing on) that they must have some compelling tricks up their sleeves.
If I wanted to bet against a company it would be MSFT right now... and I generally think I am smart enough to never bet against them.
Possible sellable top coming up, SL if it closes over 181-183:
Contract Trade Statistics panel
First line
Red dominates=Bearish
Green dominates=Bullish
Second line
Red dominates=Bearish
Green dominates=Bullish
Third line
Ignore (don't know if buy or sell)
Fourth line
Green dominates=Bearish
Red dominates=Bullish
Fifth line
Green dominates=Bearish
Red dominates=Bullish
jeewee3000
Active Member
Must not sell shitcalls for tomorrow...
,
For AMD/SMCI, I find that doing a buy write nets you more for a given strike:
SMCI: Next week's 725p is 11.50
buy/write with next week's 725c is 12.90
The end result is the same if SMCI is below 725 next week?
Are you doing a straight wheel by selling CSP first?
For AMD/SMCI, I find that doing a buy write nets you more for a given strike:
SMCI: Next week's 725p is 11.50
buy/write with next week's 725c is 12.90
The end result is the same if SMCI is below 725 next week?
i start 2 wheels on alternating weeks via csp and cc
this way, i have deltas cancelling each other out (hedge)
of course, delta moves and it's probably unbalanced after huge moves
but at least i have something to "soften the blow" of daily moves
it doesn't make sense for a B/W to be ITM/OTM at the same time - deltas will be lopsided
ATM puts generally have more credit than calls (ie -p780 is 3300 credit while -c780 is 3100 credit) due to "skew"
Set a STO 5x NVDA -p1175 @$10.1 before I went to music practice, triggered while I was there
Still 100x TSLA -p172.50/-c180 open, almost bough back the calls earlier, but decided against, just think it's going to land in the channel this week
Good news is that anything ITM has a very easy roll to next week with the higher IV, a risk, I know, but let's see...
Still 100x TSLA -p172.50/-c180 open, almost bough back the calls earlier, but decided against, just think it's going to land in the channel this week
Good news is that anything ITM has a very easy roll to next week with the higher IV, a risk, I know, but let's see...
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
NVDA is trying to claw back to 1212. A significant support per Wicked that can meant more upside.
Guess it wasnt strong enough going into today. But maybe it was just taking a breather.
But what the team thought on where it would closed tommorow? 1225? Below 1200?
Guess it wasnt strong enough going into today. But maybe it was just taking a breather.
But what the team thought on where it would closed tommorow? 1225? Below 1200?
———
BARRON'S TAKE
Tesla Shareholders Likely to Approve Musk Pay. What Happens After.
By Al RootJune 06, 2024 11:57 am EDT
Shareholders have a big decision coming on Wednesday, June 13. They will vote to approve or reject Elon Musk’s massive $56 billion pay package.
The “will they or won’t they” question has preoccupiedthe minds of investors in the electric-vehicle maker for months. The vote will likely be yes. Now, the better question for investors is what happens to Tesla stock after the vote.
In 2018, incentive-based stock options worth some $56 billion were awarded to CEO Elon Musk. It amounted to all his potential compensation for the coming years and the options vested if Musk could hit growth and earnings targets.
The package, put up to a shareholder vote, passedwith more than 70% support. The result came despite proxy advisors ISS and Glass Lewis recommending investors reject the deal. Both proxy advisors again recommend rejecting the package in 2024.
The package is up for a vote again because a Delaware judge voided the deal in January, citing inadequate disclosures to investors.
A lot has changed since 2018. Tesla’s market value has increased roughly ninefold, an incredible accomplishment. Musk, however, has become busier with more non-Tesla projects, founding artificial-intelligence company xAI, and buying the social-media platform X.
EV competition has ramped up too. Tesla’s growth has slowed and first-quarter operating profit margins of 5.5% were down almost 14 percent points from the 19.2% peak reached in the first quarter of 2022.
The tougher industry setup is why some shareholders want Musk to stick around, urging others to vote yes. “Elon is the ultimate ‘key man’ of key man risk,” wrote Tesla shareholder Ron Baron of Baron Capital on Tuesday. “Without his relentless drive and uncompromising standards, there would be no Tesla.”
Not everyone agrees. Leo Koguan, one of Tesla’s largest individual shareholders, tells Barron’s he is voting against the deal, adding he’s unhappy with the level of oversight the board has provided as Musk has added other businesses to his quiver. “Install [a] new board of directors,” he suggests, adding a new board should require “the CEO to spend [his] full time for Tesla.”
Advertisement - Scroll to Continue
Baron is a yes and Koguan is a no. Barron’s asked several Wall Street analysts how they thought the vote would go. Most believe shareholders will vote to reinstate the package.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas surveyed his clients, and received 109 responses. More than half expect a yes result. Only about 23% expect a no result. The rest have no strong opinion.
Taken together, it looks likely that the pay package will be reinstated. That’s good news and bad news for investors. A yes result would remove an overhang for shares. But the likely yes result is already reflected—to some extent—in the shares, meaning post-vote share price volatility skews to the downside.
Technical analysts Frank Cappelleri of CappThesis and Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies both point out that Tesla stock has been hovering near its 50-day moving average at about $172. A move below that price level brings $150 into play. That’s $25 below recent trades.
On the flip side, the removal of the overhang could send shares above the 100-day moving average of around $180 a share. So there is, perhaps, $10 of upside or $25 dollars of downside following the shareholder vote.
Cappelleri and Stockton aren’t making fundamental calls on Tesla stock or the vote. Instead, they look at stock charts to get a sense of where investors buy and sell stocks, which can guide shareholders attempting to judge what might happen after an event such as an earnings call—or a shareholder vote.
A yes result doesn’t fully eliminate the threat of Musk’s distraction arising from other business interests. He recently raised $6 billion for xAI, and shipped Nvidia
https://www.barrons.com/market-data/stocks/nvda?mod=article_chiclet
chips from Tesla to xAI.
Exactly where Musk develops AI technology matters to Tesla. Musk has repeatedly called Tesla a robotics and AI company. Tesla uses AI computing to train its driver-assistance technology, and Musk sees will Tesla EVs into truly self-driving cars, enabling new robotaxi businesses as well as more sales of driver-assistance software to new and existing customers.
Morgan Stanley’s Jonas believes the threat of Musk taking AI projects out of Tesla isn’t as great as some might expect. “Musk needs Tesla now more than ever, as AI is a capital game,” wrote Jonas in a Friday report. “The broader collection of Elon Musk’s businesses may collectively invest many tens of billions of dollars in AI infrastructure in coming years, and cost of capital is deterministic for AI supremacy.”
Advertisement - Scroll to Continue
His point: While xAI will invest and grow, Tesla ultimately will have more money to build its AI-trained applications. Jonas rates Tesla stock at Buy with a $310 price target.
Jonas’ view will help soothe anxious Tesla investors, but the AI debate will continue for years. For now, investors will be happy to get the Musk pay issues behind them.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-ev-stock-elon-musk-4afb9cd7
Last edited:
Similar threads
