Just looked into this. By my calculation, the gamma expiring this week is closer to 20% now. Haven't looked back how this compares to historical numbers, but that doesn't seem unusually high.
I do agree that a good chunk of the ownership today is coming from options. These numbers (172 million as of close) are a good bit higher than the highs we have seen in the run up to 900 in early q1 in the page I track
here.
There are 2 counter points though. A lot of this exposure is coming from farther dated options (22 and beyond) which is a good thing. Secondly I suspect there's more spread trading going in Tesla than a year ago, significantly inflating this metric.
So I am leaning towards a hypothesis that there are unlikely to be sharp drops, unless there's a sudden dump from Elon, which seems improbable.
Time will tell. I am light on all BPS with only a 860 short for this week.