jun2024 920p/-920c shows -1 delta, 0 gamma, some 0,06 theta, 0,04 vega.
I opted for 09/02 -p1750 which has -1 delta.
Assignment made tracking this a bit harder, since IBKR of course separated everything to single legs..
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
I opted for 09/02 -p1750 which has -1 delta.
Assignment made tracking this a bit harder, since IBKR of course separated everything to single legs..
Just closed my 900c for about a $16 loss. Live to worry another day. 
Obviously we're going to 860 tomorrow.
Obviously we're going to 860 tomorrow.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Low volume today and SP is getting maneuvered to avoid the 950 call wall tomorrow. Probably gonna buy some cheap 8/5 $950c here in a moment and hope to sell for 3x in the morning.
That is one of the things i want to finally solve with my software ...
Sometimes it is VERY hard to keep track of things when you have 2-3 strategies at the same time with 2-4 legs each .. and then everything blows up and you end up with ~15 different positions each tracked individually & you don't see the gain/loss on the strategy you actually wanted to trade as a strategy -.-
Back to topic: I still don't see where the "guaranteed" profit should come from.. the spread alone in 5x the expected profit if TSLA does not move.. so is it just a "get a good fill" play? But i think that is still too much risk for me with the assignment-risk. Think of being assigned at 6:00 and not be able to open another short until 9:30 (or close the other side of the trade) & have 3:30h full -1 delta-exposure to the stockprice.. Or am i missing a stock-leg you also open with the proceedings of the money raked in by the put?
Yeah, IV had come down a bit so I closed it for now.. was getting a bit weary about the whole thing. P&L pretty much zero. I'm using wingman for tracking, so it does make things easier.
This is the wild card - company or market/macro - what will dominate? My own odds are something like 2/3rds macro / inflation / QT / war will dominate over August and September (until we get close to Q3 production report), and 1/3rd that the details on the 3:1 split will be announced and will become the dominant driver of the share price.
I just see a really big jump up possible on that 1/3rd chance, but a reasonably normal / small move down on that 2/3rds.
To your question - just what is a reasonable valuation for a company that is growing unit volumes >50% year over year, has been doing that for years, and is guiding to continue doing that for years to come?
Is doing so by fully funding capital and research from cash flow, and is showing significant free cash flow on top of that. ALSO while having a higher and higher % of that incremental revenue falling through to the bottom line. The combination is unprecedented - to find something somewhat comparable you start looking at much smaller companies where 50x is trivially small.
The closest big company analog that I know of is Amazon, and even there, 20% year over year at such stupendous size was unprecedented.
Maybe your level really is a reasonable valuation - I don't know. I know that this stock split is a catalyst that -could- cause the entire market to reset their valuation of the company. Maybe the market finally notices that, if anything, Tesla is position to grow even faster than ridiculously fast for the next year or 2, and to put some value on that.
It's that reset that I've seen. 2 or 3 times in Tesla's history, that might be about to happen again, that I'm trying to figure out how I want to be positioned.
I'm playing this for fun -
BTO - $1000C's for tomorrow exp (same ones I sold for $5.55 and closed for $1.50 a couple of days ago) for $0.80 each
BTO - $850P - $0.40 each for tomorrow exp
BTO - $1200's 08/19 exp for $1.75 each
Round trip for all of these is less than half of my profit from selling the $1000's earlier this week.
So everyone is welcome for the flat close tomorrow!
BTO - $1000C's for tomorrow exp (same ones I sold for $5.55 and closed for $1.50 a couple of days ago) for $0.80 each
BTO - $850P - $0.40 each for tomorrow exp
BTO - $1200's 08/19 exp for $1.75 each
Round trip for all of these is less than half of my profit from selling the $1000's earlier this week.
So everyone is welcome for the flat close tomorrow!
I've decided to play all of the possible outcomes that I see for the next couple of weeks.
In the account that matters the most (current living expenses) I've closed the 900cc expiring tomorrow for $29. In for $6, out for $29 for a loss of $23. Ouch but it leaves me open to whatever may come. Most importantly for me the loss is very manageable and I've got no incremental risk for tomorrow. My particular concern tomorrow is that I wake up to a gap up and then it builds and runs away. That outcome will now be particularly good for me, instead of being particularly bad. A drop is also a good outcome for me as I can open some csp on a drop down.
In another account I've rolled 900cc for this week, to 910cc for next week and a $10 credit. Here I'm going for a building credit and continued flattish.
And lastly I'm holding the 900cc in a 3rd place looking for a drop tomorrow that enables a profitable close, or at least a significantly smaller loss than I'm currently carrying.
I think that the net for me is that my "hope" strategy is now strategy to cover anything. I'm hoping for the market to open tomorrow and something to happen
For the leaps that are now uncovered I'm also offering up a roll from June '24 500 strike to June '24 600 strike, looking to get $60 out of the position for use on other stuff. So far it looks like that roll is only worth $59.50 to the market so its hanging out. I'd like to make the roll and get the cash, but another possibility is to sell some really aggressive cc instead. Those will get back the $23 loss quickly.
I was thinking about 850 strike csp for next week but decided that I still want to see a move down before I act on that. If we continue flattish for another few weeks I may find myself more out than in the market while I await a move in some direction.
In the account that matters the most (current living expenses) I've closed the 900cc expiring tomorrow for $29. In for $6, out for $29 for a loss of $23. Ouch but it leaves me open to whatever may come. Most importantly for me the loss is very manageable and I've got no incremental risk for tomorrow. My particular concern tomorrow is that I wake up to a gap up and then it builds and runs away. That outcome will now be particularly good for me, instead of being particularly bad. A drop is also a good outcome for me as I can open some csp on a drop down.
In another account I've rolled 900cc for this week, to 910cc for next week and a $10 credit. Here I'm going for a building credit and continued flattish.
And lastly I'm holding the 900cc in a 3rd place looking for a drop tomorrow that enables a profitable close, or at least a significantly smaller loss than I'm currently carrying.
I think that the net for me is that my "hope" strategy is now strategy to cover anything. I'm hoping for the market to open tomorrow and something to happen
For the leaps that are now uncovered I'm also offering up a roll from June '24 500 strike to June '24 600 strike, looking to get $60 out of the position for use on other stuff. So far it looks like that roll is only worth $59.50 to the market so its hanging out. I'd like to make the roll and get the cash, but another possibility is to sell some really aggressive cc instead. Those will get back the $23 loss quickly.
I was thinking about 850 strike csp for next week but decided that I still want to see a move down before I act on that. If we continue flattish for another few weeks I may find myself more out than in the market while I await a move in some direction.
I closed out a couple puts, $885 for tomorrow, that it seems like I had been bull-dozing forward for what seems like forever. I paid $2 to close them because I didn't want to risk a "sell on the news" event and I wanted to free the margin this week. (All in I think I came out about $60 ahead on them.)
Freeing the margin will help me take advantage of any dip tomorrow to roll some BPSs, that I pushed way out, in closer.
Freeing the margin will help me take advantage of any dip tomorrow to roll some BPSs, that I pushed way out, in closer.
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jeewee3000
Active Member
880 is too close for me. Especially with such a narrow width. 880/680 I could maybe handle.
(Yes, I still have BPtSd from Elon dumping shares)
closed my c910 buy-writes at 95%; waiting to reopen them today or maybe just reuse the shares next week
bought 8/12 +p850 instead of sold 8/12 -p850 by mistake; closed quick for minor profit enough to pay fees (whew)
bought 8/12 +p850 instead of sold 8/12 -p850 by mistake; closed quick for minor profit enough to pay fees (whew)
I admire you folks for playing weeklies, I am mostly yearly, leaps
far out Delta CC's on weeklies as I bide my time for right moment to sell yearly CCs.So SP was around 300, they got thrashed because they had to take BTC impairment and CEO Michael Saylor stepped down.
So sold jan 24 100s PUTS for like 22$.
I am thinking BTC will bounce or will take a while before it retests the 1700's. cheers!!
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