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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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from limited research, my preference is buy shares due to:

Those are either / or propositions. The buy-write is specifically a buy the shares and sell the calls operation. The profit dynamics and management dynamics - all of the other dynamics, at least for me, I work as if its a cash secured put.

Alternative can sell the cash secured put.

For myself I'm finding that I like the buy-write dynamics better than the csp. I think its because on a share drop followed by a share gain, the initial drop will realize a large gain on the buy-write and a large loss on the csp. On the share gain you get the reverse - the share gain and close in the buy-write will show a large realized loss that offsets the initial realized gain (leaving the net credits as realized profit).

With the CSP the same sequence shows a large realized loss on the initial move and then a large realized gain on the second move, with the 2 netting out and leaving the net credit.

I like the buy-write better because I find it trivial to hold those to close (I've gotten early closes for .05 or .10 -- I don't like holding and allowing to expire, over a positive close). With the csp I'm more likely to take an early close at a high % gain, especially in this down then up situation, that might net out to $0 or even a small loss, just to be sure I don't get bitten on another down move. Maybe its mostly psychological for me, but one of my learnings over the last couple of years is to recognize how emotions creep into my decision making and don't fight them. It might be a good reason to not trade (I take this angle in some situations) and it might be a reason to pick one trade strategy over another as it is here.


All that being said I'm not doing buy-writes in my taxable account any longer. I do have a current leap cc that I'm working using the same buy-write logic. I went really, really DITM for a 1-2 month call with share like behavior. I found the Sept 100 strike (300 pre-split, shares around 900) with <$1 time value, delta of ~1, theta of ~0. I am more than willing to roll that long call month to month as my share replacements - 24 months of these rolls will get me a total time cost that is lower than the time value in a 2 year option.

The key underlying dynamic that makes a buy-write work is that the shares are delta 1 / time decay 0 / no time limit backing to the cc. At -all- price levels the shares are gaining value faster than the cc is losing value on a move up. WIth closer to the money long calls, especially when you add in vega, this is not the case. Especially if those long calls are more like an .85 delta - the short calls can easily go over .85 delta if they're ITM and approaching expiration. At that point the long calls are gaining in value more slowly than the short calls are losing value - that's bad and requires a lot more detailed management to avoid that.

The really, really DITM long calls on a 1-2 month horizon is something I'm still experimenting with. I can imagine coming up to a .99 or even .98 delta - I suspect that .95 delta is just too close. The reason is that on a significant drop in the share price, that delta on the long call will be falling to lower and lower levels. The short calls will be realizing gains, but are unlikely to realize gains as fast as the leaps are accumulating unrealized losses. Losses that will be realized pretty quickly when using 1-2 month long calls.

Thus deeply enough ITM that the long calls retain their share like behavior, even in the face of a big drop.
Thanks both for the input.

My thinking was along the lines of legging into the B-W, so say you were ready to open a B-W at SP of $270, but instead sold a $270 CSP.

Either

A. The SP goes up, the put expires OTM and you made a good premium on the ATM put. No harm no foul. You wanted B-W but you got a win with the CSP.
B. You were prepared to start the B-W at $270 anyways, now you got those shares at $270 minus the CSP premium (better cost basis), and can proceed to write the call.

Aaand I realized I am now just describing the wheel.
 
From a gamma standpoint (which is most likely driving the pricing) , interest is narrowing to 260-295 ... a continuation from Monday and Tuesday. The premiums at either end are deteriorating as well; a few minutes ago, pricing for a 305cc is .045. Having set my range Tuesday for 260 put side and 305 call side, I am glad to have opened the CSP and also later in the day at same price point, a 260/235 BPS for Friday. Opening CC's today for this week not worth the pennies.

View attachment 847470 (mid-day run to get a pulse of what's brewing ... nothing)

View attachment 847471

View attachment 847472

How do you create these charts and where do you get the data? This is great info!
 
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How do you create these charts and where do you get the data? This is great info!

Thanks. CBOE is the source of the data. I'd given credit to the original author or at least referenced the article I picked up the code from just when I started using and sharing the charts... I will look for it in this thread to again give credit. I'd modified the code some with regards to dates, arguments to the script, naming and such. Once downloaded, the python script processes the daily option pricing as recorded at close, calculates for each strike the gamma exposure for puts and calls. The process of creating involves the downloading of the data, removing all expiry except for the week we are in, then running the script. I try to do this M,T,W so that I can spot movement, identify the outer edges I feel will expire worthless for puts and calls, then apply that do writing CSP, CC.

Here's the end of day chart , not much different than I'd posted mid-day but continues to support that we are somewhat in a holding pattern.

TSLA-TotalGamma-31Aug2022.png
 
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Thanks. CBOE is the source of the data. I'd given credit to the original author or at least referenced the article I picked up the code from just when I started using and sharing the charts... I will look for it in this thread to again give credit. I'd modified the code some with regards to dates, arguments to the script, naming and such. Once downloaded, the python script processes the daily option pricing as recorded at close, calculates for each strike the gamma exposure for puts and calls. The process of creating involves the downloading of the data, removing all expiry except for the week we are in, then running the script. I try to do this M,T,W so that I can spot movement, identify the outer edges I feel will expire worthless for puts and calls, then apply that do writing CSP, CC.

Here's the end of day chart , not much different than I'd posted mid-day but continues to support that we are somewhat in a holding pattern.

View attachment 847579

This post? Wiki - Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

Thanks for the reminder on this
 
With IV getting this low, does anyone else wonder if this might be a sign to be ready for a breakout? Unexpected changes in sentiment are often significant.
I was thinking the same thing. Have "they" drained all of the premium out of the options that were bought by those anticipating a run up to and after the split?

And does the next leg up begin before everyone (who were burned) slowly jump back in again ahead of P/D report?

🤔
 
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With IV getting this low, does anyone else wonder if this might be a sign to be ready for a breakout? Unexpected changes in sentiment are often significant.

I was thinking more supply/demand dynamics. There just aren't enough buyers (and too many of us sellers) expecting a change to drive premiums up? So our selling pressure is driving down IV?
 
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Thanks. CBOE is the source of the data. I'd given credit to the original author or at least referenced the article I picked up the code from just when I started using and sharing the charts... I will look for it in this thread to again give credit. I'd modified the code some with regards to dates, arguments to the script, naming and such. Once downloaded, the python script processes the daily option pricing as recorded at close, calculates for each strike the gamma exposure for puts and calls. The process of creating involves the downloading of the data, removing all expiry except for the week we are in, then running the script. I try to do this M,T,W so that I can spot movement, identify the outer edges I feel will expire worthless for puts and calls, then apply that do writing CSP, CC.

Here's the end of day chart , not much different than I'd posted mid-day but continues to support that we are somewhat in a holding pattern.

View attachment 847579
hello! thanks for this wonderful chart, it's the #1 thing that i look for at dayend... for realsies! your CBOE comment got me thinking and after some research, i realized that i do have realtime chain download access

lemme see if i can produce a fancy graph out of it... it won't be as pretty as yours, that's for sure

i am curious about seeing daily trending gamma by time (ie how did it change hourly from Open to Close) - what is the strike that is actually moving the most and how far is it from the maxpain? (translation: Short Straddle!)

1661982032659.png
 
I was thinking more supply/demand dynamics. There just aren't enough buyers (and too many of us sellers) expecting a change to drive premiums up? So our selling pressure is driving down IV?
Agree. There is not much going on with the options market. The option volume is low and that is also reflected in the volume of SP.

Macros are the story although I like how TSLA is holding up but you know they will eventually take this down with the overall market. There is always that delayed reaction with TSLA.
 
With IV getting this low, does anyone else wonder if this might be a sign to be ready for a breakout? Unexpected changes in sentiment are often significant.
Yes - hoping for lower prices to pickup LEAPS in September. I'm hopeful we have a run upward between a positive P&D number and strong Q3 earnings, inclusive of another "mature" earnings call similar to what we saw in Q2. All of this, IMO, is dependent on macro direction. If this was just a bear bounce, TSLA will drag lower. It could outperform, but I don't see a run to $400 as much as I'd like.
 
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