Well, I was planning a survey post of various options recently traded (eg, 10,000x c/p300 Jan23, 6000x p/p170/173 Mar23, 9-10,000x c/p235 Nov 18), but decided I don’t really have anything to add. Instead, with all the early DITM put assignments, I thought I would point out my method of keeping track of the remaining time values: Just sell a short straddle and the value of the winning side is pretty close to the time value of the losing side. You can also easily look it up on MaxPain. For example, at SP $222.07 close, the 10/28 c250 is currently showing $5.50 and the p250 is $32.45, so there’s approx. $5.50 time value left on the put. I try to readjust my straddles much earlier, but the past two weeks have been pretty bad. I did have some 250s/270s for 10/14 and I closed some CCs near today’s low. Probably a mistake to not roll everything down and out.
On another matter, some “extra” cash is now available outside of my retirement accounts. This was money to be used for living expenses and emergencies, but has been building up in a low-interest savings account. Yes, I know that I’m lucky to have savings beyond my immediate needs, but I’m wondering if it’s finally time to buy shares. I wouldn’t need the money for at least two years, so could defer capital gains if eventually sold for future living expenses. With all the Twitter/Elon selling overhang and rumors about the bond upgrade, it sure seems like additional shenanigans are in the works until November. Would anyone else be buying at these prices with 2-yr money? I’ve been buying a few shares each week in my retirement accounts (from the options trading profits), but have not yet bought in taxable accounts. I’m thinking that $208-$210 YTD lows are still possible. If we break those, then who knows where’s the bottom.
From a longer term market perspective, we could easily see another 6-mo of pain, 9000 nasdaq, maybe even more if the Fed thinks we’re in a 1972-4 inflation period or a 1999-2000 dot-com boom:
In any case, this has been a rough two weeks for TSLA. I truly think that most of this is specifically manipulation to keep us from hitting the golden cross. We were within ONE day of having the 50d SMA cross above the 200d, a massive positive catalyst for traders, and then, bam, a series of >-5% daily drops, and gap downs overnight. All coincided with FUD about Twitter, Elon needs to sell, right before earnings come out, and reaching the SP of the original S&P500 addition. Hmmmm.
