Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[OrthoSurg]

Note to self;

Buy calls the morning of the ER, sell them at 3:45PM when IV has increased all day long, then sell CCs before close to benefit from the IV crush next morning to close them.

 

[mb300sd]

Dropping on a beat... My CSP in trouble :X

 

[OrthoSurg]

Dropping on a beat... My CSP in trouble :X

Rolled my 21/10 240CC to 4/11 255 CCs just before close for a $1 credit. I was expecting a NFLX surge because I was pessimistic. I rolled for nothing.

Famous Wall Street dropping the stock on a beat, classic.

 

[mb300sd]

At least it hasn't dropped too much. IV crush might still save things.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

that's interesting, anyone know why the 11k 12/16 220 is a c/p pair?

Wishing those were mine, instead of ~1000x fewer 11/11 240s.

Note to self;

Buy calls the morning of the ER, sell them at 3:45PM when IV has increased all day long, then sell CCs before close to benefit from the IV crush next morning to close them.

This time it would have been best to buy the calls just before Friday’s close. I just couldn’t do that Friday, but I did sell two CCs today (225 at $7.50 and 230 at $4.3) in anticipation of the IV crush, though secretly hoping a roll would be required. Crazy AH action, so maybe still up tomorrow, but probably not. Still expect the MMs will dead stick land the SP at $224.69 on Friday (well at least between 220-225).

 

[Yoona]

so i am closing all my remaining CCs on Wed; no regrets if Thu/Fri red; better to have small gains than big loss

bad news:
today i couldn't close my CCs (-137%) due to increasing -c prems

good news:
i think they will expire

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

bad news:
today i couldn't close my CCs (-137%) due to increasing -c prems

good news:
i think they will expire

welps, share buyback announced, but the SP isn't going anywhere ... yet. Tomorrow will be interesting. Want to flip a coin on whether those CC's will still expire? I have some 10/21 240c's that I'm hoping to close tomorrow.

 

[vikings123]

welps, share buyback announced, but the SP isn't going anywhere ... yet. Tomorrow will be interesting. Want to flip a coin on whether those CC's will still expire? I have some 10/21 240c's that I'm hoping to close tomorrow.

We never got any confirmation about Twitter and/or TSLA share sales by Elon. Until we get a closure on that the SP is not going anywhere. Your CCs should be an easy close tomorrow morning.

My thoughts on SP in the short term; I think we will see a retest of 204 tomorrow. If that does not hold I can see us going down to the lower BB which is currently at 190. After that I think we trade with the macros.

 

[MrMoo]

We never got any confirmation about Twitter and/or TSLA share sales by Elon. Until we get a closure on that the SP is not going anywhere. Your CCs should be an easy close tomorrow morning.

My thoughts on SP in the short term; I think we will see a retest of 204 tomorrow. If that does not hold I can see us going down to the lower BB which is currently at 190. After that I think we trade with the macros.

The SP will go somewhere. Down.

Even if Elon isn't selling, there will be enough options activity to front run the possibility of him selling next week to move the stock. Not to mention the unwinding of anyone who bought calls to gamble on a beat and a stock move up. This is going to be messy.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

We never got any confirmation about Twitter and/or TSLA share sales by Elon. Until we get a closure on that the SP is not going anywhere. Your CCs should be an easy close tomorrow morning.

My thoughts on SP in the short term; I think we will see a retest of 204 tomorrow. If that does not hold I can see us going down to the lower BB which is currently at 190. After that I think we trade with the macros.

Ok, thanks. Setting more share buys at 204.20.

 

[juanmedina]

I guess those November $250 +calls are not going to work out . I should have sold them today.

 

[BornToFly]

Now I'm really glad I bought 300 of the Jan 2024 200 strike Puts. Unfortunately I should have bought 600. They are going to be more expensive tomorrow and the CC to pay for them will be worth less.... Aaargh.

 

[doddiozil]

He literally can't do that.

Tesla has a mandated trading blackout policy. Typically 14 days before end of quarter, lasting until 2 days after the earnings call.

Many folks think he insisted on Oct 28th to complete the purchase specifically because he had to wait until after this week to do anything to sell any more shares.

So the earliest expiration you'd want puts for to protect again Elon selling would be 10/28.

Does anyone have the source or link to a document confirming the quiet period?

 

[BornToFly]

He literally can't do that.

Tesla has a mandated trading blackout policy. Typically 14 days before end of quarter, lasting until 2 days after the earnings call.

Many folks think he insisted on Oct 28th to complete the purchase specifically because he had to wait until after this week to do anything to sell any more shares.

So the earliest expiration you'd want puts for to protect again Elon selling would be 10/28.

So the problem is if people think Elon will sell on Monday, they will front-run him tomorrow and Friday.
Can he say if he isn't going to sell?

 

[MrMoo]

So the problem is if people think Elon will sell on Monday, they will front-run him tomorrow and Friday.
Can he say if he isn't going to sell?

Yer he can but when people asked him on Twitter he didn't say. So take that how you want. His said no more planned sales a few months back.

 

[Knightshade]

Does anyone have the source or link to a document confirming the quiet period?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1339837859885244417

 

[BornToFly]

So the question is, does it drop hard at the open and recover, or keep dropping further...?
I'm guessing the latter, at least through next week....

 

[vikings123]

So the question is, does it drop hard at the open and recover, or keep dropping further...?
I'm guessing the latter, at least through next week....

IMO shorties will not relent especially with the uncertainty around any additional TSLA shares that Elon needs to sell. So in my view we will drop below 200 and it could happen as early as tomorrow.

MMs might come to our rescue since there were a lot of puts sold. We could even see a bump in SP tomorrow morning to allow naked put sellers to close out their puts.

 

[Max Plaid]

I didn't catch up with the earnings call, just reading some highlights, but as far as I can tell, this quarter was a record on every level, FCF through the roof, all debt retired, $21B in the bank, outlook reiterated, stated no demand issues, share buyback coming (not that I care about this, but some people seem to want it). The only "negative" was that revenue didn't hit the made-up number from Wall Street. And we're down 6% AH?

TBH, coming into earnings I was stressed, thinking guidance might be lowered, future growth warnings, etc., but from what I've read so far I'm feeling more bullish than ever

I will continue with my strategy of selling weekly shitcalls...

 

[Yoona]

does anyone know the formula to derive the hedge? TIA!

also, is EM selling or not?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1582986627340959749