Yes - thats why I use a spread of 5. As I showed a few pages back - the thumb rule would be every time both legs become ITM, we have to double the width.
Not really - smaller the width, easier to roll. Ofcourse, you get much less premium. For eg., if you start with a width of 5, you need to roll to a width of 10.
The “Epic Q4” comment came almost two months ago and the macro situation has deteriorated considerably since then. So I would go with what I know today.Elon also said Q4 will be epic maybe we should take advantage of P&D and hedge a lot for ER depending on what they say on the call. He is really confusing.
Here is an interesting video of what has happened before when the Fed pivots. I wonder what will happen to Tesla as the interest goes down.
Thumb to the wind / feeling really.
$220 call : 13 cents
Extending this logic to its natural conclusion is why I often have dabbled in just selling CCs for the longest dated strike available. Right now I'm back to selling weeklies because it doesn't make sense to sell a super long dated call at a ~2 year low, but doing the math on "safe" weeklies, you could get the equivalent return by selling like a Jan 2025 $450 or something. (I'm approximating here based on the last time I did the comparison a few weeks ago).What I did to get semi-decent premium for CCs was to go further out. This past Friday (SP ~180) I sold 25x 245 CC's for 2/17/23 (65 days) and got $8,137.50 ($3.25/ea). My situation is I don't mind if they get called away (they are all at $242 CB) since it will pay off my margin in full (yay!) and then some.
If TSLA doesn't close over $245 before or by 2/17 then I'll just keep the $8k and sell again for April and choose a strike based on action then. However sentiment doesn't seem to support that we'll be at $245 in Feb; on the contrary we may be further below 160 by then, but who knows?
Parenthetically, I may also get lucky this week or next and be able to BTC at 50%-80% profit this week if TSLA revisits 172-168. If so I *may* take the green and sell it again on next pop to 180's, though the risk is it will never go back up to capture the same premium.
Meanwhile I can use the $8k I got in premium to cover margin interest (6% $2,810/mo) and **SUGAR** puts (~$500/mo) to keep my account solvent until TSLA back over 200 consistently.
. IIRC @EVNow waited it out and got out of his for $0.01 cent! I wasn’t as brave 
This is all part of being cautious when you get started, and building scenarios on paper to get comfortable with the trade-offs between %OTM and DTE and $ of premium. In some ways, shorter DTE makes it more likely you can escape a sudden price escalation, but it isn’t certain, and multiple monthlies can give the illusion of safety but also come with more time for sudden spikes to occur. You may find that a middle ground on all parameters offers a reasonable risk:reward, and while it takes more work, running 13 biweeklies instead of 1 6-month could have higher return for the effort. For one, I have settled on trying to be fairly strict with +10% OTM biweeklies and getting close to $2/contract with occasional rolling which is less per week.After being burnt recently by paying $10k to BTC 58x 12/2 200 CC’s a couple of weeks ago (was considered a safe strike even by EWT; was going to net me a stupid $1k) when suddenly we were at $198 and knocking at $200’s door and I couldn’t risk letting it close over $200 and losing all my shares, the way I deal with selling CC’s now and in the immediate future is to only sell for a strike I’m willing to have the shares called away (i.e., above my CB).
With this in mind, since weeklies pay little for 245 strike, I choose a date further out (but not too far out) until the premium is more substantial.
The reason I don’t want to go too far out even for more premium is because in the past I found myself handcuffed to a CC that I STO at a high strike ($50 over my CB) and was unable to cut the shares loose at a lower price TSLA hit in the interim that was above my CB and would have freed up margin without taking a loss had I been able to sell them then. I don’t want to be in that position again.
P.S. The 12/2 200 never closed over 200 at the end
I should actually note ... $219 is not correct for 15.57% over closing SP of 180. 15.57% would give us 208. (@Yoona ?) That would give us a premium of $0.36 for 207.50 strike. Not too bad .... thats the kind of money I've been getting with spreads anyway.
Sorry - can't debug that ! (without knowing what all those things are). PM me if you want me to take a look ... (to understand, I guess).
Futures lower, CPI & Fed upcoming, and Elon thinks “prosecute” is a pronoun. Hmmmm, maybe everyone’s CCs are safe and Yoona’s $164 target will be tested this week. I can’t believe that my 12/30 -c160 b/w has a decent chance of expiring worthless.
