I was thinking the former, which at the current SP is probably suicidal.
Yeah - that's my take. I'm comfortable with -175/+150 in Jan '25 puts. On the call side I can't find a $25 wide spread worth $18. I just looked at -30c/+55c - no way I'm trying that one. Even writing it out is giving me hives!
Looking at an OTM +c/-c spread though - something like the +150c/-185c (Jan '25) will cost 9.43 up front with a max gain of $35 (net of ~$26) if held to expiration and shares > $185. Since I have the cash already in hand to back spreads at $25/spread, spending 9.43/spread to free up the $25/spread sounds like a good idea (frees up $16/spread) and has a similar upside with a similar share price move required.
The problem is that I haven't done this sort of spread in the past. That mostly means that I have no experience with rolling such a spread, especially when I find myself with a $220 share price in 4-6 months - that spread will be fully ITM but it won't be very close to max gain. And if/when that happens I really don't want to wait for later 2024 to finally take a 75% gain / break even on the overall position, nor do I really want to wait until then to figure it out
Looking some more I'm wondering about a +150c/-200c position. Max gain of $50/spread and costs $13 to enter. That would free up roughly half of the cash backing the -175p/+150p spreads, while creating a significantly larger possible gain. Enough larger that an early 2/3rds gain close ($250 share price?) would be direct and easy and also provide the target gain for the current position.
Looking at more of these, the call debit spreads look like a superior option to these DITM put spreads I have. Especially when I've already committed to this 2 year expiration - I need to learn about managing these call debit spreads once they go fully ITM. A big part of my plan is rolling slivers of this larger position into early close opportunities once the share price has recovered enough ( I expect I'll be adding more spreads, wider spreads, worse strikes, so a little bit better than the spread isn't enough), and I don't know enough about managing call debit spreads.
I suppose that rolling some number of the cc / -c to a nearer expiration (and higher strike to pay for the roll) would create an opportunity for those to expire worthless. I'd just roll some # of those Jan '25 -c's that I can back with shares and when the -c expire worthless then I can also get rid of some of the +c (or keep them!?!?!). And here I've been thinking about buying +150c as a share conversion.
So maybe I combine my put spread recovery with my share to leaps conversion.... if we do go far enough ITM on the calls, I would start buying out the -200c as opportunities arise and leave myself with the +150c's that I want. Or I can buy the combo out in bits and pieces to bring down long exposure as the share price goes up. H'mm....
Sorry about the stream of consciousness. I just spotted my logic problem - the current put spread I'd be replacing these with will cost $19/each to buy out, so my actual opening cash flow is -$28 against $25 reserved. I've just added to my weekend reading and study....
Gotta go read!