That was BIll Gates' new years resolution to short the worlds richest man. Does seem like a full court press as tough as the Model 3 rollout to hit TSLA, but it was all Elon and Twitter this time. Bill apparently made about 17-20 billion. If he hasn't gotten out of the trade yet, that could be a bigger impetus for the stock than a 10 billion buyback (at least short term).
Thanks for writing this, it feels very familiar. I'm down to a portfolio of about $150k from a peak of $800k, which is/was a HUGE amount for me. Could have paid off my mortgage or retired early. I'm frigging stressed every day, have trouble sleeping, and I feel mad at myself and stupid for not liquidating at 800, 700, even 600k.I lost half of my taxable account because of margin and my account is almost back to a cash account, but lately I have been feeling like throwing in the towel. How long can this go? It feels like Tesla was just a bubble and we were blinded by greed. I had the HOLD mentality that kept me from taking any decent amount off the table and hoping for more. I wish I could get back the money that I paid in taxes from trading last year because I could buy all my positions back without losing a share. If somehow the stock makes it back to $230 by the end of year I think I am going to cash out and buy index funds and never look back. I will take peace of mind over money any day. I should have sold when Elon sold. This was a good lesson for the future and thankfully like others I am in my late 30's and have a job. Another mistake that I made was not to get rid of all my debt when the stock was high but I thought it made more sense to have the money invested since interest rates were so low... what a mistake. Thankfully it is only a little over $100k. I am mentally exhausted after letting the opportunity of a lifetime escape from my hands, millions down the drain, and I have no confidence in Tesla's recovery especially with Elon's behavior even if the company is performing well. My wife told me just to sell positions on margin but hold the shares for the long term but I have to tell you I feel really scared. I have to go back to my old Mr. Money Mustache ways until the stock recovers.
(good luck, smart)
(bad luck, dumb)
(patience, work, smart)
I'm not sure any of us can answer that, but I expected some volatility at open, so setup some order before main market, they all triggered (which was good as my broker app and website went AWOL for the first 10 minutes of main market):
Tesla only lost from 50% to 47% production-wise. It is very clever to flatten the delivery-wave now for at least 2 reasons:
They won't always pair things in the margin calculator the way you do. As the SP changes, they pair positions differently to optimize your margin. Not a big deal as long as the margin requirement isn't higher than you expect.
You aren't alone. I'm down a similar percent for similar reasons, just a larger starting point. It's been an expensive education.
The most important thing, as with any other strategy, is whether the stock price goes up or down after you're pushed it through. If it goes down, your 2x 150P will lose more than the 1x 210. In thinking that lower strike prices are better, you're betting that this is the bottom or close to 1. If it isn't the bottom, how much more of a downturn you can withstand if you're short 2x 150 instead of 1x 210?
