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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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Something I've been trying lately with some success: for CCs and CSPs I'll set a STP buy order @ 2x opening price. My current position is that I'd rather lose last week's profit, than ever getting in the position again of having far ITM positions. Do you folks ever use automatic stops (instead of say, rolling)?
 
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Playing chicken with the c130 wall: STO 26x -c130 @$3.1

Set that up before market open, realised it needed ~$128.50 to trigger, but was patient and waited

Effectively a double-dip as I sold 35x of these last week for the same price and bought them back @$1.35
same -c130 B/W @3.6, ok to lose shares
 
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Market is starting feeling toppy again so I closed my short TSLA 90P for a 40% profit. Still carrying 140 TSLA covered calls. I assume earnings will be below par.

Closed my long e-mini sp500 futures. Still carrying ~16% hedge via short micro e-mini sp500 futures but probably want to add to it. Possible debt limit drama won't help going forward.
 
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options volume is insane... the below was snapped at 11:45a, I removed many of the low flow columns to allow those with more interest to standout. Slightly more calls than puts traded.

Screen Shot 2023-01-17 at 11.57.17 AM.png
 
This morning I rolled 40 x -c140 1/20 to -c150 1/27 for a net credit of $1.10. Teasing the stock to go higher. Depending on ER results I’ll roll higher or out, or I will let them get exercised and start a new round of The Wheel.

The 1/20 to 1/27 rolls are quite favorable right now...
 
The 1/20 to 1/27 rolls are quite favorable right now...
Yeah, the earnings are being implied for a huge move. My belief is the MMs are loving this and that the stock may very well sell off even on good earnings based on the way we are going up now... only to recover for the impending investors day and the announcement of our next model!
 
I thought y'all might find this itneresting.

I had 135/115 put spreads end of the year / early this year, that I rolled out to Jan '25 because I'm comfortable with the strikes, but I wasn't comfortable with how low we could go, or how long it would take to recover. Taking it week by week was a bad idea for me.

They went about as deep as $18 on the $25 wide spread.

At today's share price around $130 they are trading at $10.50 or so. I would expect $12.50 when share price is around $125 (midpoint), so I think we're right in line.

These spreads won't go <$1 very fast as they have so much time value to decay. So I'm far from done with this position, either on a small loss or small gain basis, but I really like where I'm at for the moment.


Which is good, because I've also got 175/150s in Jan '25 out there that need even more recovery in the share price before I'll get out of them. I also like where I'm at with those (in terms of the $20 loss shrinking back down to a net small loss or small gain).
 
Yeah, the earnings are being implied for a huge move. My belief is the MMs are loving this and that the stock may very well sell off even on good earnings based on the way we are going up now... only to recover for the impending investors day and the announcement of our next model!
I am planning / preparing for something like this.

II remind myself that I'm already leveraged plenty high for a big move upwards. I'm only going to add to that leverage if we see something under $100. (EDIT: to be clear - leverage via Jan '25 options that are fully owned / cash backed. I can wait out any share price between now and then. I might not be in a survivable state after that, but I can at least see the next 2 years through).

I'm also not doing any short term income positions until after earnings. Definitely not this week with the big monthly expiration, as I see those big option expirations making this week effectively independent of both macro and company news. Just too much volatility and inability to assess what it will do, to get in the way.
 
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So should we expect a sell off on the 26th, or just a volatility crush following earnings? I'm still selling 1-20 CC's at 135, 138 and 140. Any pain I suffer is made up for by 2-17 calls. I feel like I should sell half my calls on the 24th as volatility will max out, but the stock could shoot up if earnings beat. I can afford to roll out half the calls, but I either have to roll way up or spend a lot to roll out 120 calls at this point.
If we hit 135, I may sell 145 calls, but start to wonder if we go nuclear from here?
 
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So should we expect a sell off on the 26th, or just a volatility crush following earnings? I'm still selling 1-20 CC's at 135, 138 and 140. Any pain I suffer is made up for by 2-17 calls. I feel like I should sell half my calls on the 24th as volatility will max out, but the stock could shoot up if earnings beat. I can afford to roll out half the calls, but I either have to roll way up or spend a lot to roll out 120 calls at this point.
If we hit 135, I may sell 145 calls, but start to wonder if we go nuclear from here?
Nuclear not before 140 (I even say 150) which is 40-50% off the (afterward declared) bottom. For now still in the dead-cat-bounce-area (imho)
(BOUNCING REALLY HIGH THOUGH..)
 
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Could someone please check my understanding of trailing stops?

Screenshot_20230117-150901.png


I think it will operate as such:

1. As soon as the order is sent, it will record the mark price of the option. (Let's say 1.67)
2. The limit is set at 1.67 less 20% (1.336)
3. If the limit is hit, the trailstop turns into a limit order and tries to fill at 1.336
4. If the mark ever increases higher than 1.67, the limit also increases, and the process begins again from step 2.

Is that roughly correct? Thanks in advance.
 
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The 1/20 to 1/27 rolls are quite favorable right now...
This morning I rolled 40 x -c140 1/20 to -c150 1/27 for a net credit of $1.10. Teasing the stock to go higher. Depending on ER results I’ll roll higher or out, or I will let them get exercised and start a new round of The Wheel.
Similar. -c125s 1/20 to -c130s 1/27 for $1 or so. Also, sold -p132s at $7.50 for inverted strangle and to earn some extra premium. I’m still expecting a drop back to $120-$125, remember lots of Fed speeches this week
 
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Sold -145/+150 calls. Haven't sold any put spreads. May be if the SP comes down a bit tomorrow ...

Does this mean, if you’re like 20% OTM and stock rises 10% after earnings, your CC could be worth the same (or sort of)?

Like this ?

Its a bit difficult to calculate as the IV crush happens gradually and depends on SP price action as well. If SP is raising, IV may not crash as much, until SP raise reverses. Anyway, 10% OTM with 1/2 days left @ 50% IV will mean near zero premium.

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