Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[BornToFly]

165CC for next week are already .53
Very tempting to at least sell a few, and sell more if the SP keeps rising.

Edit: Put in a limit order for 0.6

 

[dl003]

So you are saying (non-advice) exemplifying a hedge , that if one buys puts now ... near 127 for a few weeks out and when we visit 140 sell the calls for two weeks out as well? The puts are there to appreciate if the price falls. What's the advantage to buying the put at 120 vs 100 vs 95 which are less as the strike is lowered? Is it the rate of appreciation for the higher strike in a downward price movement?

It's not so straight forward. The point of hedging at near 140 was to minimize the odds of the hedge backfiring on you. At 129, those odds are now not nearly as favorable. So yes, there's a chance that the stock may run up from here without making new lows, backfiring on you. Trading is about probability, not absolutes. Right now we need to give it a few more hours to see how it reacts to 127 before figuring out our next steps.

The next time we see 140, my money would be on us conquering it without breaking a sweat. Whether that happens with or without a new low remains to be seen.

 

[dl003]

For me, there are levels and then there are directions. Directions I think are more useful for option buying and not my forte. I do think there's a 75% chance we're gonna see 122 this week.

 

[LAexpress]

For me, there are levels and then there are directions. Directions I think are more useful for option buying and not my forte. I do think there's a 75% chance we're gonna see 122 this week.

75% chance in the next two days?

 

[dl003]

75% chance in the next two days?

If not this week then early next week. The gap should be filled and the 2 hourly uptrend needs to be tested before ER.

 

[BornToFly]

165CC for next week are already .53
Very tempting to at least sell a few, and sell more if the SP keeps rising.

Edit: Put in a limit order for 0.6

I should have taken the 0.53 ...

Edit: Economic news is looking good world wide. Today might just be a rest day for the market with green again tomorrow/Friday....

 

[SebastienBonny]

I should have taken the 0.53 ...

Edit: Economic news is looking good world wide. Today might just be a rest day for the market with green again tomorrow/Friday....

New chances will come 0.46 already.

 

[intelligator]

New chances will come 0.46 already.

I should have taken the 0.53 ...

Edit: Economic news is looking good world wide. Today might just be a rest day for the market with green again tomorrow/Friday....

I'm watching, not clicking, would rather wait the outcome of this and next week... it's same midpoint on P/C for this IC short strangle , not bad either.

 

[Max Plaid]

Hard reject by 137. I think market has topped, at least for now (2 weeks).
We may make new lows now, but doesn't mean we will. ER gonna decide. If we make new lows, I expect that to be THE bottom in TSLA. 85-97.

I don't see it... I think we capitulated and that was the low...

As for the macro, SPY has been pushing hard against the bear-market resistance and took a breather today

Why should markets crash? Inflation has clearly peaked and is dropping. Employment remains relatively strong without wages going through the roof. Supply-chains are normalised, China reopening

It's all a boogey-man story the FED made up and no need for recession

 

[Max Plaid]

BTC 4x -p115 @$0.11 net +$3

STO 10x 1/27 -p130 @$6.6 - a little too early, but OK, first leg of a small ER straddle...

Given the nasty macro today, TSLA doing quite OK IMO

 

[kabin]

I don't see it... I think we capitulated and that was the low...

As for the macro, SPY has been pushing hard against the bear-market resistance and took a breather today

Why should markets crash? Inflation has clearly peaked and is dropping. Employment remains relatively strong without wages going through the roof. Supply-chains are normalised, China reopening

It's all a boogey-man story the FED made up and no need for recession

There might be a lot more to it than the boogey man. The punch bowl is gone and so too are the artificially low interest rates and we still have quantitative tightening to deal with. Stocks still need to rerate to all of it. Deglobalization and its associated inflation might be here to stay. And TSLA earnings likely won't be a rose garden. It might take some time for P/E to converge with the new biz model of increased production/sales, reduced margin, and increased buyer demand. I'm still a buyer under $100/share however.

There's a lot of smart money that says don't get sucked into the market soothsayer narrative. Time will tell. It's good to be an active trader that can hedge.

And long term for anyone interested... There's an interesting book by Peter Zeihan (The End of the World is Just Beginning) where he lays the current past and current trends in demographics, logistics, economic, political, resources, and energy of each world power. Some came to pass with the pandemic and the rest could happen within 10 years. China's news yesterday about their first negative population growth rate in the last 50 years was no surprise, it's part of it.

 

[Yoona]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1615738596522180611

https://twitter.com/x/status/1615779476746420247

 

[vikings123]

I don't see it... I think we capitulated and that was the low...

As for the macro, SPY has been pushing hard against the bear-market resistance and took a breather today

Why should markets crash? Inflation has clearly peaked and is dropping. Employment remains relatively strong without wages going through the roof. Supply-chains are normalised, China reopening

It's all a boogey-man story the FED made up and no need for recession

I’m not trying to predict how things will go but I’m trying to position defensively for the ER next week.

I took the opportunity yesterday and today to convert some OTM leaps into shares. I’m also tiering into Jan 27 125$ puts as a hedge while they are still “cheap”. I’m selling OTM calls to cover for half of the cost. Also holding on to some dry powder.

It’s insurance for something unexpected that might come out next Wednesday. You can argue that bad margins are priced in at this point but just like we did not expect 405K deliveries nobody can say accurately what costs were.

I honestly don’t know if we will see 85-90 like @dl003 says but this is a stock that has a mind of its own and there is no shortage of bad actors so anything is possible. It is clear shorts have a strong hold so I’m hoping earnings/margins are good and we can stand out from the rest of the crowd.

 

[BornToFly]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1615849560831660032

Thanks for posting. It does look like the RSI needs a breather. Maybe we are flat/down until next week. Seems like SP can go anywhere at this point.

 

[intelligator]

Today I closed a 1/20 -130/+135 BCS , to be safe , at a few hundred dollar loss. I would have had to take action nonetheless, rolling into next week with a possible steep climb would have been more management and snowballing of losses. I'm trying hard to pay for my mistakes, at a discount

We went gamma neutral today, 120-135 looks busy. Based on today and the after-market sentiment, 110 and 160 seem safe... kinda late for me to setup a position for Friday, I may evaluate again the same range for next week.

 

[OrthoSurg]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1615738596522180611

https://twitter.com/x/status/1615779476746420247

So if we don’t bounce at 123 when we are filling the gap at 122 and if we see 119 that would be extremely bearish?

Didn’t touch my 17/2 140CCs yet. 138 acted as a strong resistance. Now we need to find what is the strong support to close my CCs there before we bounce back.
Are we going g to keep making daily higher lows and higher highs? Let’s see

 

[Yoona]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1615886383519858688

 

[BornToFly]

Dan Shapiro last night was explaining that the QQQ and SPY closed down right on the 50 Day MA. Today may determine the direction of the markets. He said for the Bulls, it would be ideal if we gap down in pre-market, and then everything gets bought and we go green. So far the gap down appears to be happening. Let's hope we go green, or else the markets will most likely be headed lower.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Dan Shapiro last night was explaining that the QQQ and SPY closed down right on the 50 Day MA. Today may determine the direction of the markets. He said for the Bulls, it would be ideal if we gap down in pre-market, and then everything gets bought and we go green. So far the gap down appears to be happening. Let's hope we go green, or else the markets will most likely be headed lower.

One thing I am trying to figure out is if TSLA is doomed to follow macros if SPY got rejected at 400 when we are going for a lower low does TSLA absolutely hase to folllw the down trend? I guess if earnings are good even with the P&D miss we might have our Meta of NFLX recovery even if everything else goes down. Well that’s what Cory from stocks channel expect a sharp V recovery since he considers we had capitulation in the stock in December. It’s hard to predict if the stock is going to go up or down from here there are so many forces at play.

 

[dc_h]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1615886383519858688

Is the perspective that we need to make new lows, in the 80's, to complete Mauro's projected 5th wave, or just below 123 and then form a possible cup and handle and take off from here?