Very interesting! At first I thought it was a bet with a lot of money behind it that TSLA is going back on the torture rack. This is quite interesting. I wonder why they wouldn’t put it in the money market for +\- 4.5% instead.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Very interesting! At first I thought it was a bet with a lot of money behind it that TSLA is going back on the torture rack. This is quite interesting. I wonder why they wouldn’t put it in the money market for +\- 4.5% instead.
@dl003 When you have a chance let us know please how you interpret today’s price action vs your recent TSLA playbook and how you are positioned for next week.
Did you catch the elevator down in time to flip the sold puts to sold calls? Are you still holding the -P170 on margin for next Friday?
Ty
Did you catch the elevator down in time to flip the sold puts to sold calls? Are you still holding the -P170 on margin for next Friday?
Ty
I was at the airport all day and couldn't watch the market after the open. I decided not to panic at the open and kept my -190CC for next week. Before close I rolled my 170 CSP to next week 175 for a nice credit (I eventually want the shares back, so I'm raising the break even level a little each week while still pocketing a credit). Going through my Twitter feed, it seems like today's drop was pure manipulation/FUD (software update adding new features being called a "recall," and Elon rumor). I expect a climb back up next week with the investor meeting on Tuesday.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Difficult to say what caused the drop. Definitely yesterday and today’s pop looks like FOMO - silly traders not understanding that finding a CEO for Twitter is almost inconsequential for Tesla Or they thought other traders won’t understand and buy. So, I expected the SP to revert back to ~170. But it went down further - could be because of MaxPain or the traders not understanding the “recall” news and this time shorting.
The company meeting is one more reason for FOMO and then a drop.
Maximum risk, $49 frikkin' million!!!! That's some cash/margin you have to carry that trade!!
Totally agree that Twitter getting a CEO has almost zero impact on Tesla, but Twitter has been used as a pretext to attack TSLA over the last 12 months, so it's only right that it works in both directions...
Not sure I agree with a drop from here, Tesla appears to be running very smoothly right now, the wave, at least in Europe appears to have ended, deliveries are incredibly good, inventory staying flat, prices have been increased slightly
I think we'll see a reduction in costs for Q2 and with the "one time items" Zach talked about, maybe we'll hit the magic 20M% on margins - if we get a strong P&D then we might get some upward movement in the stock
Of course I am an eternal optimist at heart
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I think a lot of that had to do with Elon selling a lot of stock. That increased the float as well. I wish he had arranged to sell privately to a large financial institute ... that would have prevented the freefall. Ofcourse some of that was also fear of brand damage. We still don't have a handle on that, IMO.
We need to see what happens with P&D and then GM. Any positive surprise there will move the SP up and negative surprise will move it down. In the meantime, I think the stock will trade in a range - reacting to short term news and indices. Traders will determine the price .... and we'll have to live with that.
I think we all agree that Elon's handling of his stock sales has been appalling and very much to the detriment of investors
Range-bound is good for options trading, although a bit higher IV would be welcome!
For my side, yes, I'm now holding 90c Dec 2025 c140's, but if I can buy back into the stock for the same price or lower then I will and trade calls like a beast, selling the LEAPS when there's a good profit to be had
As mentioned before, once TSLA backtested 166 and bounced, the new high would mark the end of the playbook. The drop on Friday was not what I expected. Gamma squeeze on a Friday, you'd thought it would have more room to run but what's done is done. The daily RSI high was not confirmed by the close. This steep of a drop & TSLA falling out of the uptrend channel means we might have seen the top of the first leg up. The drop on Friday found support near the bottom of the preceding wave 4 which is the norm. From here, I'm looking for a bounce - magnitude unknown, but maybe 171 is where I'll close my short puts for a slight gain.
Thank you. The Friday price action definitely confused, disappointed and humbled a lot of people, myself included.
I guess TSLA is at a precipice at which it is more dangerous to sell -P than -C.
Are you putting on anything new this week or waiting for a pattern to emerge first?
@ReddyLeaf you may have this trade the wrong way around. My understanding is that an order at the Bid (red) is a Sold option and one at the Ask (green) is a Bought option. So the 2xP80 were sold at the bid and the P60 and P100 were bought at the ask - the opposite of what you entered into the options calculator. So this trade would actually be bearish and provide a profit with TSLA between $60 and $100 with maximum profit at $80.
However as explained in the video below, this trade may actually be trying to benefit from a high Vega (sensitivity to change in IV) on the contracts. So as long as the IV for TSLA increases a bit from the current historical lows (4% IV30 rank), this trade could still be profitable even if TSLA doesn't drop much.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I saw the video. Not sure what they mean by 4% IV30. It is around 40% (yes, low for Tesla - but high for other stocks).
Thanks. Initially I entered it the way you said, then changed it because I could not believe some whale would wager that much on such a high probability loss. Like you suggested, maybe an IV play going into this week’s meeting.
4th percentile, i.e. IV30 has been lower than the current value only on 4% of the days in the past 52 weeks; on 96%, of the days it's been higher. I.e., it's really low these days.
(I assume that the percentile in this context relates to a 52-week year, which it usually does)
Anyone else notice the “Edit” menu and button is no longer appears on mobile (iOS), even if logged in?
The edit button appears when you tilt your phone to landscape format.
There have apparantly been some changes to the website over the weekend. I’ve asked the admins if they can fix this particular bug because it causes a lot of confusion, also in other threads.
There have apparantly been some changes to the website over the weekend. I’ve asked the admins if they can fix this particular bug because it causes a lot of confusion, also in other threads.
Wow, I didn't realize how much OI was sitting at 180 for the 19th. Largest negative shifts are at C180, 190, 185 followed by P155. When we see a large shift out without a notable increase at any strike, is this taking money off the table?
The tall OI walls are at:
C180 = 51716
P150 = 41863
The tall OI walls are at:
C180 = 51716
P150 = 41863
As expected, all my shares called away over the weekend, but now have a bit of cash for put writing... now idea the direction this week, so have have put in some optimistic -167.50 straddle sell orders, hoping to catch the early volatility at open, will see!
Strategy from here is to go heavy on the puts, but never more than 50% of cash to facilitate rolling. I would be quote OK to rebut all my shares 150 or below, then go call-heavy using the LEAPS, which I'd be fine to trade out if I got the shares back. In the meantime, writing a few calls too, but jus a handful that can be rolled up and out easy enough
Edit: STO 40x -p167.60 & 15x -c167.50, both sides @$5.1 (patient at open)
Strategy from here is to go heavy on the puts, but never more than 50% of cash to facilitate rolling. I would be quote OK to rebut all my shares 150 or below, then go call-heavy using the LEAPS, which I'd be fine to trade out if I got the shares back. In the meantime, writing a few calls too, but jus a handful that can be rolled up and out easy enough
Edit: STO 40x -p167.60 & 15x -c167.50, both sides @$5.1 (patient at open)
Last edited:
Similar threads
