I’m thinking flat til earnings (maybe 265-285?) and then a kind of relief rally after the ER to take us into the 300s. Even if margins aren’t above 20% yet, I think that will be seen as the low mark and it will improve from there.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
I’m thinking flat til earnings (maybe 265-285?) and then a kind of relief rally after the ER to take us into the 300s. Even if margins aren’t above 20% yet, I think that will be seen as the low mark and it will improve from there.
I told myself I wasn't going to do uncovered calls for next week until after earnings. But then I was able to roll my 345 calls for tomorrow to 200X -380C for next week for 0.1.
I think 380 is safe for next Friday, so I took the $2k....
I think 380 is safe for next Friday, so I took the $2k....
7/14 275-280 would be super. Gamma spikes are at those strikes, near or at the money OI is as well. Let's see how OI settled in the morning. This week's positions are -c285 and +p245/-p255. Was going to sell a spread this afternoon, deciced the premium wasn't worth the risk. Will sit the sidelines next week, get back in when the dust settles.
Closest put and call walls are at 270 and 280 respective, put call ratio is .86 , slightly more calls. A subtle near equal increase at 285, c300 continued to see more interest, p270 spiked, pull back at c275. A spill over into 280+ is possible, will watch closely and if needed, act on -c285 before the close. GLTA!
myt-e-s-l-a
Member
Another profitable trade
Closed p275 CSP @ .05 and switched to long CC pos for ER 7/19.
The other c280 CC remains unchanged
BTC +10x CSP tsla 230714P275 @.05 P/L +5.45k
BTO 1000 tsla @ 282
STO -10x CC tsla 230721C300 @ 5.80
BTC p267.5 230714 yesterday on the spike, was afraid we would dip today and I'd be left holding extra shares through earnings. Should have waited and drained a bit more theta.
Most likely not having any positions next week besides core shares.
Most likely not having any positions next week besides core shares.
Interesting data/opinion re Q2-23 earnings next week:
Closed some 240 strike puts expiring next week, and rolled 200 strike calls expiring next week out to Aug 4th.
In the first case I'd reached 2/3rds profit - I could have waited and probably made a bit more, but with 1 week to expiration the price wasn't going to move much, and I've had plenty of these positions turn around and need to wait out the last week.
I'm thinking about splitting up my CSPs so they expire on alternating weeks. If I'd had that setup then this position would have been held.
The calls they are so DITM that time value was approaching zero. This is pretty typical from when I've been DITM before, so rolling a week before expiration is what I would expect. I'm hanging onto these through earnings. I can close the calls and shares for $200 whenever I want - I'm less confident of a big regression at this point, but I do still think lower 200s is possible over the summer. I've got plenty of cash on hand, so no need to rush their resolution. No margin involved.
My reading on Elliot Wave Theory and learning TradingView is under way, and not going particularly fast. However I can at least see a path now to making use of EWT for identifying trends and using that to improve on my option sales. As long as it continues being fun, and doesn't turn into a job, I plan to continue with it.
In the first case I'd reached 2/3rds profit - I could have waited and probably made a bit more, but with 1 week to expiration the price wasn't going to move much, and I've had plenty of these positions turn around and need to wait out the last week.
I'm thinking about splitting up my CSPs so they expire on alternating weeks. If I'd had that setup then this position would have been held.
The calls they are so DITM that time value was approaching zero. This is pretty typical from when I've been DITM before, so rolling a week before expiration is what I would expect. I'm hanging onto these through earnings. I can close the calls and shares for $200 whenever I want - I'm less confident of a big regression at this point, but I do still think lower 200s is possible over the summer. I've got plenty of cash on hand, so no need to rush their resolution. No margin involved.
My reading on Elliot Wave Theory and learning TradingView is under way, and not going particularly fast. However I can at least see a path now to making use of EWT for identifying trends and using that to improve on my option sales. As long as it continues being fun, and doesn't turn into a job, I plan to continue with it.
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So a possible beat on the top and bottom line but a miss on margins. I wonder what that will do for the stock, selfishly I wanted the stock to go down for the sake of my DITM covered calls. I have $270 CSP that I might close next week before ER.
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IV must be crazy high for next week. The 380 calls I sold for 0.11 yesterday are now 0.33.
33 cents for strikes 35% OTM!!!
(Sometimes it's hard to get 0.2 for strikes 15-20% OTM)
33 cents for strikes 35% OTM!!!
(Sometimes it's hard to get 0.2 for strikes 15-20% OTM)
If you've held these for over a year with ltcg, if you let it expire I believe you'll then incur stcg. This is because they will exercise your long calls and you'll have a purchase with 0 days of holding which are then immediately assigned to the short calls amd it will be considered a short term sale with corresponding short term tax implications. Thus is why people usually suggest closing out call spreads prior to expiry.
Long calls won't be exercised for you in order to match up with the short call expiration. Of course if they have the same expiration, and both go to expiration, then the +shares and -shares will both automatically exercise and net out. What WILL happen, if you also own shares, is that the shares will be sold to satisfy the expiring short call obligation (not the long calls).
Assuming the long calls have a later expiration, you will need to exercise them yourself (bad plan), or issue a closing transaction for the two. That can be done together or separately. You issue the closing transaction yourself so that when you sell the long calls, you also get to sell the time value (keep that for yourself).
The reason you don't want to exercise the long calls is that they will be a mix of time value and intrinsic value. When you exercise them, whatever time value remains is wiped out -- you are giving that time value to the seller of the call.
I also suggest keeping an eye on the delta of the two positions. In a poor man's covered call (long calls with a high DTE paired with short calls with a low DTE, or a covered call that is backed by a long call), it is fairly easy to get DITM enough that the delta on the short call is higher than the long call. That's a different way of saying that at that point, as the share price rises, you will be net losing money. The long call is gaining in value more slowly than the short call is losing value.
In a regular covered call, the shares backing the short call always have a delta of 1, and therefore as the share price goes up, you will always have at least a small net gain.
I can't understand why the premiums are so high in the 300s.... although never indicative of where we end the week, max pain for 7/21 is $230.
Another decent week, though not quite as profitable as previous. Most 7/14 ICs closed for less than $0.10, but had to roll the losing BCS side on two (-c270/+c280, -c275/+c285).
Current positions (maybe close some before earnings):
7/21 IC: +p260/-p270/-c290/+c300, up $2.5k from early July.
7/21 IB: +p265/-p280/-c280/+c295, dn $4.5k from early July.
7/21 IC: +p260/-p270/-c297/+c307, up $0.5k from yesterday.
7/28 IC: +p250/-p270/-c290/+c310, up $2.0k from early July.
Also, on Friday I felt like there was enough free cash to close out a handful of -c200 & -c225 LEAPS during the MMD. Definitely glad I did. Feels nice to have some unencumbered shares.
Any non-advice on those, given the 1st production CT news? I’m still undecided on what to do with those IC/IBs. Definitely an IV crush coming, but which direction? Often the SP rises before earnings, then drops afterwards due to whatever the WS BS puts out (dropping margins, not enough of this/that, no guidance, only grew 45% instead of 50%, yada yada yada). This time I ”worry” that the SP breaks $300 decisively, and it’s off to $340-$350 like @dl003 posted earlier, and my -cc LEAPS are even farther ITM. Hmmmm, maybe I just answered my own question: should just close the BCS sides on Monday and hedge the LEAPS with the short-term BPS. If the SP drops, roll out the BPSs. If the SP rises, continue selling BPSs and buyback LEAPs with the BPS premiums. Stop selling the BCS side.
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I’ve been through enough of these events to question whether the market will react to this as a major positive surprise or not, or at least if it will do so right away.
I don’t recall any significant market reaction from a product release, let alone a single production vehicle. Happy to be wrong but the market knows Cybertruck is coming so this was inevitable. Once it’s ramped and showing up in the financials, that’s a different story.
I’m mostly in -p280 and -c300 and -c320 next week. Still have 30x -p230-255 in the coming weeks.
I let 10x -p195 exercise yesterday and plan to sell maybe 6x NTM puts with that money next week before ER. Figure it’s better use of that money than rolling them flat every week.
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