SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Yes, unless tomorrow we stay or rise. But a double top is a technical sell signal. For Tesla as said moreover it often takes three times before deciding.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Theres a new war going on. Interest rate sky high. Macro aint lookin good. Also Tesla wont meet Q3 estimate. Q4 maybe blockbuster delivery with Cybertrunk announcement. However that instant rebate in January maybe a wild card as people may delays order till then. If Macro fall on Monday it will easily take Tesla along with it.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Is the instant rebate really a wild card though? There's no price advantage to those who do qualify, just the convenience of not filing the tax credit. But it will bring in new buyers though (those who don't qualify for the tax credit this year).
The time of sale transfer removes the non-refundable nature of the credit. So anyone under the income cap can get the vehicle's full eligible at purchase. Also the advantage of a lower amount financed.
The unknown status of next year's credit levels due to the excluded entity clause on components kicking which could knock the credit to zero along with proximity to tax filing time could boost Q4 sales.
Remember folks, there is the round table financial thread and it is better suited to much of the above discussion. Please discuss what your trading plans are, in response to the world’s events, not the events.
Edit: For my part, I’m expecting a run at $270, to test the call wall, perhaps because of the CT reveal and/or run up before Q3 financials, then a retreat as the financials, macro, and world events suggest less short-term growth than the previous average 50% predictions. I still trust @dl003 ‘s analysis.
Edit2: Nasdaq futures are down 0.7% as I write this. The Hamas attack may have been the black swan event that starts the retreat.
Edit3: Just noticed lots of Fed speeches Mon-Wed and PPI Wednesday, plus lots of other news. https://tradingeconomics.com/calendar
The attached graph shows lower highs in SP, RSI and MACD. Notice also that $270 seems like a good possibility to test the recent down trend line. Perhaps coincidence, but I will be watching it closely, and will likely sell -c275s CCs or BCS spreads (-c280/+c290s) if the line holds. Friday’s MaxPain for 10/13 was pointing to another close near $260, but we will need to see what the OI is 7am Monday. If the day traders decide to sell, then I expect a test of $240 this week. Who knows? We will just have to wait and see.
Edit: For my part, I’m expecting a run at $270, to test the call wall, perhaps because of the CT reveal and/or run up before Q3 financials, then a retreat as the financials, macro, and world events suggest less short-term growth than the previous average 50% predictions. I still trust @dl003 ‘s analysis.
Edit2: Nasdaq futures are down 0.7% as I write this. The Hamas attack may have been the black swan event that starts the retreat.
Edit3: Just noticed lots of Fed speeches Mon-Wed and PPI Wednesday, plus lots of other news. https://tradingeconomics.com/calendar
The attached graph shows lower highs in SP, RSI and MACD. Notice also that $270 seems like a good possibility to test the recent down trend line. Perhaps coincidence, but I will be watching it closely, and will likely sell -c275s CCs or BCS spreads (-c280/+c290s) if the line holds. Friday’s MaxPain for 10/13 was pointing to another close near $260, but we will need to see what the OI is 7am Monday. If the day traders decide to sell, then I expect a test of $240 this week. Who knows? We will just have to wait and see.
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That's a pretty good summary of how to focus the discussions in this thread.
OI loaded at c265 (30k) and c270 (27k), p240 lightened some, 260 may be the line in the sand. Max pain is at $255, put call ratio about even. There's protective puts, I suppose, down at 110 (28k) and 130 (~18k). I have -c257.5 that I rolled here from last week -c252.5 ... the may be safe. Hold on for the ride !
QTA levels for today:
Monday Range High: $259.84
Monday Range Low: $250.63
absGEX magnet: $265
Max Pain: $255
Monday Range High: $259.84
Monday Range Low: $250.63
absGEX magnet: $265
Max Pain: $255
BTC all for modest gains and went flat at $253.66.
Will watch how market/TSLA reacts to the news before putting new positions on.
Peace on earth now!
The $275 short call strike for 10/13 appears decent risk for this week. The big call walls at $265 and 270 can act as barriers, plus overall market skittishness may tame any sudden rallies.
Need TSLA to be higher around $260+ to see better premium to sell those $275's (or $272.50).
NFA
Need TSLA to be higher around $260+ to see better premium to sell those $275's (or $272.50).
NFA
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Big V incoming. Tesla going green again. Sold all my puts this morning. Bought some call @ 270 10/13 during the dips and see how it ride out by tomorrow,
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
I'm only in defense-mode since Market open today, Only +P247.5 -C265 to protect shares. (+ holding on to okt 200 and 210 put) (same on PLTR holding, plus bearish bets on NVDA way OTM). Sure no bloody red Monday, but international things are far away from status quo.)
Tsla is faring much better than I expected considering all the info we know and have been discussing. Certainly looks like tsla is heading towards a breakout moment soon. Short term leaning bearish and closed out majority of CSP and increased sales of otm calls.
Once tsla takes off in either direction I think I'll ride that wave, but for now I'm definitely taking a more defensive posture.
Good luck everyone
Once tsla takes off in either direction I think I'll ride that wave, but for now I'm definitely taking a more defensive posture.
Good luck everyone
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Jim's daily chart are spot on. Daily high and daily low are in lines. Some slight variance on the swing low but swing high are close - 259.84 vs actual 259.67.
Seem we will be be doing the back and forth dance till some significant news are released; cybertruck release, cpi, major analyst downgrade...etc... my stragedy till then is to be nimble. Offloading/Loading put and call during these swings.
Seem we will be be doing the back and forth dance till some significant news are released; cybertruck release, cpi, major analyst downgrade...etc... my stragedy till then is to be nimble. Offloading/Loading put and call during these swings.
Adam Jonas keeps trying, reiterating his $400 price target in 12 months (he must be stuck with lots of bought calls or sold puts or both 
):
):GM all. OI added to c260, c270, c280 and p235, c265 shows the most interest. Put call ratio is even (more sideways trading?), max-pain unchanged at $255 ... which looks like the middle ground based on OI shift. While the SP flounders, a dip this AM may be a good opportunity to manage/take profit on any closer to the money call positions you're not comfortable holding.
QTA Levels
Tuesday Range High: $262.50
Tuesday Range Low: $252.80
Tuesday Range High: $262.50
Tuesday Range Low: $252.80
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
john tanglewoo
2012 Roadster Owner
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