Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[SAPharmD]

Logically speaking what you say makes a lot of sense. But remember that Wall Street makes money on churn and there is not a better polarizing company than TSLA to create that churn. The charts will tell you the story you don’t even have to look at the delivery numbers or margins.

Today is a good example of how Tesla bulls rationalize the 6% drop; Panasonic, ON, weaker demand blah blah blah. The fact is the stock was broken technically and you could see them trying to break 200 at some point this week.

So the point in being a long term investor is…?

 

[dl003]

So the point in being a long term investor is…?

Read this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1378401028538687490

Beta measures the unpredictability of the SP. Over the long term, the SP goes where the fundamentals go but in the short term, high beta stocks like TSLA can be all over the place.

As holders, we bet that the stock will eventually end up where Tesla is as a company that is changing the world. As traders, we try to predict how TSLA is going to behave and capture gains from these wild swings in the short term.

 

[adiggs]

So the point in being a long term investor is…?

You can focus on the company instead of the company's stock. It's "easy" to be right over the long haul about a company.

My first and second 10x stock is Tesla, and then Tesla. I have different needs today - back then I was an easy buy and hold (2013 to today). The fact I was buying and holding was vital to my own wealth creation. It let me ignore the share price when were going 30 to 180, then to 280, then 380, and then yo-yoing up and down 180 to 380.

Somewhere in here I started caring about TSLA in addition to Tesla, as I've begun selling options and restructuring my Tesla holdings for a different outcome - income in retirement. The in retirement part came from being a long term investor.


Financial independence!

 

[SpeedyEddy]

My bet is 140-150 is on the table, but not right now. It will take another round trip to 240 and back down to reach 140-150.

I do not totally agree to this order (intermediate run 240) and earlier told that my expectation is that if any of designated levels would fail (EODday as always), the next one will substitute. 145 coming after 189. Macro will decide if we have a bull trap in between. I’m in for an intraday 186 to close above 189. If below, down we go without 240. Like you indicate a lot of day by day irrationality can lead to unexpected moves (like plummeting into 50% fib straight away, which would be just below 150, in which case closing that big old 145 gap intraday would be obligatory. ) For now I would hope to get shares back at $186.5 and EOD $189 will hold, but I will not yet enter 2026 -P +C’s yet, not trying to catch a falling knife. Maybe just - C245 for December to cover, but on the other hand maybe it’s not worth the risk and just do weekly -C 15% OTM when crossing these levels, or -P in case of a significant bounce.

 

[Max Plaid]

Too late. I already setup to autosell all my shares at 240 and rebuy at $150. Im going to be the richest top dog in here all thanks to DI0003. Max Plaid here I come….

Either that or I be eating dry dog food rest of my life

It all fun. Have a good rest of the day and we meet again tommorow in the Casino.

Ugh, this big hairy dog is feeling the heat right now! Yeah, I was very smart to buy 200x March -p200's back when the SP was in the 250's, and right now those are 100% up, nice! But being a serial weekly short writer I find myself buried under 120x -p220's, which is cramping my style somewhat

So I'm faced with a conundrum on the short puts:
a) roll them and see if the SP comes back: risk is the SP drops more, no extra loss, but a lot of potential gains gone
b) buy them back and write OTM instead: risk of the SP reversing the moment I do that - have seen this happen multiple times
c) weekly roll and knock off 10x contracts per week: probably the most sensible option straddling with calls

I guess a combination of b & c would be best - roll at -p220, straddle with -c200, write -p180's with the rest of the puts for some more premium to buy back more -p220's, etc...

Also thinking to close out all my exotic LEAP put positions, all too dependent on the SP being up next year, which doesn't seem a given to me any more. I think there's better money to be made in $1 weekly puts and calls

 

[thenewguy1979]

China registration number fell 22% for 4 weeks of October. Aint lookin hot. SP premarket already down to $194.

 

[mongo]

China registration number fell 22% for 4 weeks of October. Aint lookin hot. SP premarket already down to $194.

Down 22% compared to what? That requires a 35k value in comparison to October's reported 27,300 (1-29th)
First month of quarter is typically export heavy July 2023 was 31,300 (1-30th) Adjusting for days reported, that's down 10% QoQ They also have the Model 3 update ramp impacting things

September 2023 was 43,507
October 2022 had 17,200 China domestic sales

 

[Max Plaid]

Down 22% compared to what? That requires a 35k value in comparison to October's reported 27,300 (1-29th)
First month of quarter is typically export heavy July 2023 was 31,300 (1-30th) Adjusting for days reported, that's down 10% QoQ They also have the Model 3 update ramp impacting things

September 2023 was 43,507
October 2022 had 17,200 China domestic sales

Also it wasn't a full week of M3H sales either, plus I can imagine a lot of M3 in transit

So no, I don't worry too much about these numbers, also, as said, given the huge number of ships we've seen set out from China that are now starting to deliver in Europe, etc.

My plan today, not necessarily in this order:
- BTC 120x -p220 -> this first though to remove all the risk
- STO 11/10 100x -p190 -> 100x contracts in pocket for rolling down
- STC 70x Dec 2025 -p270
- BTC 30x Jun 2024 -p270
- BTC 20x Sep 2024 -p270 -> still 65x Dec 2025 +p270 / Sep 2024 -p300, but much simpler setup
- BTO 100x March 2024 +c240 -> a) to cover a short term upside move and b) to sell $1 weeklies until such a move does or doesn't happen

 

[SAPharmD]

You can focus on the company instead of the company's stock. It's "easy" to be right over the long haul about a company.

My first and second 10x stock is Tesla, and then Tesla. I have different needs today - back then I was an easy buy and hold (2013 to today). The fact I was buying and holding was vital to my own wealth creation. It let me ignore the share price when were going 30 to 180, then to 280, then 380, and then yo-yoing up and down 180 to 380.

Somewhere in here I started caring about TSLA in addition to Tesla, as I've begun selling options and restructuring my Tesla holdings for a different outcome - income in retirement. The in retirement part came from being a long term investor.


Financial independence!

I love this because you are 100% correct. I can hold these shares I bought for 20+ years and never really let the share price affect me. I can just stay focused on this amazing company, it's bright future, and enjoy being a part of it, in some small way.

 

[Jim Holder]

QTA levels for today

11/3

11/10

 

[elasalle]

Will take what the market giveth ...

Closed 119 Feb 24 300 calls for 68% gains ..had to close 5 Jan 24 250 Calls for the monies ...
I am ready for FED, APPL, CT and SANTA rally

 

[BornToFly]

Sold 260X 230CC for Friday for 0.1 (these were on the shares that had the 350 strike CC I bought back yesterday for 0.4).
We are green since the sale.
You're welcome.

 

[tivoboy]

Wait. Is this in the “plan”? Seriously? I thought $185 would be max end of this madness (even though it did allow for me to achieve my share goal - supposed to hold for the long long haul 15-20+ years (I’m 33))

I think somewhere in the 160-170 range is the “end of this madness”… at least for this phase, taking us into next year. That’s my working thesis that I’m building equity and options strategy against.

 

[thenewguy1979]

bought some put 185 expired 11/3. See if 185/186 will be base for the week. Good luck guys

seem the V was made at 198.40.

 

[tivoboy]

Ugh, this big hairy dog is feeling the heat right now! Yeah, I was very smart to buy 200x March -p200's back when the SP was in the 250's, and right now those are 100% up, nice! But being a serial weekly short writer I find myself buried under 120x -p220's, which is cramping my style somewhat

So I'm faced with a conundrum on the short puts:
a) roll them and see if the SP comes back: risk is the SP drops more, no extra loss, but a lot of potential gains gone
b) buy them back and write OTM instead: risk of the SP reversing the moment I do that - have seen this happen multiple times
c) weekly roll and knock off 10x contracts per week: probably the most sensible option straddling with calls

I guess a combination of b & c would be best - roll at -p220, straddle with -c200, write -p180's with the rest of the puts for some more premium to buy back more -p220's, etc...

Also thinking to close out all my exotic LEAP put positions, all too dependent on the SP being up next year, which doesn't seem a given to me any more. I think there's better money to be made in $1 weekly puts and calls

First loss is best loss.

 

[SAPharmD]

I think somewhere in the 160-170 range is the “end of this madness”… at least for this phase, taking us into next year. That’s my working thesis that I’m building equity and options strategy against.

When do you think we will see this? This week?

 

[tivoboy]

When do you think we will see this? This week?

By the end of Nov, probably closer to Mid Nov. The Nov 17/23 monthlies are the way to play it.

 

[BornToFly]

I was going to sell naked CC for Friday as well, but then I remembered FOMC tomorrow. I think I'll wait.

 

[SAPharmD]

By the end of Nov, probably closer to Mid Nov. The Nov 17/23 monthlies are the way to play it.

I can get 1000 more shares at those prices. That would really be wonderful.

 

[dl003]

At 200.30 I bought 11/3 puts and sold 230Cs for 11/10. We're not done yet. 192 and under next.