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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Just got bumped by a C section between my 2 hips at the OR. Had time to trade so I copied you.
if you can share when you close it I will
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SAPharmD
Member
What are your thoughts on Tivoboy's analysis in that we will see 160-170 this cycle down?
So, all done and feeling much more relaxed, with the exception of selling 100x -p190's as my sell order didn't hit, so instead will flip to this week's -p190's waiting on the SP to dump for that
BTO 100x March +c240 @$11.39 then noticed this week's -c200's were trading for a nice $4.3, so sold 100x of those - that's 40% ROIC, I'll take it
Will $198 now provide support?
Tivoboy has been more consistent than I am so I give a lot of weight to what he's seeing. I'm calling for 185 absolute bottom so we're not that far off from each other, considering we've both been bearish since 279. My 185 call is not based on any fundamental but a frequently encountered phenomenon which may or may not repeat itself.
No matter how strong the trend is, up or down, the entire length of the run most of the time will not exceed 4.618x of the first wave. You can see this in April 2022 and even the November-December 2022 crash.
Here's the one from 279
Now if we do this exercise on the current one from 269
We can see that the 4.618 level lies at 174. So that's closer to tivoboy's bottoming zone.
However, that's the big wave, what about the smaller one? We're at the tail end of wave 5 (the oval shape). Fib ratios work for waves of this degree, too.
And that's my 185 right there. If the last wave won't break 185, then neither will the entire sequence. My rationale is: if even the 2022 Elon fiasco couldn't break this guideline, why should the one we're in now? So, my expectation is the worst we're gonna see in the first half of November is 185.
However, what comes after that is a bit muddy. What if the 279-234-269-185 sequence is NOT a 3 waver? What if it's a 5 waver? What if 185 is just the end of the 3rd wave and we have one more? If so, once it's bounced to 205-217 in the 2nd half of November, we need to be very vigilant because if it's rejected there, it can go down way deeper than 160. The destructive potential is so great that you won't want to look at how far the 4.618 level is going to get us. However, right now I'm leaning toward this is a big 3 waver, not 5. Let's say 70% certain.
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The CT event is 11/30/23, would that not give any lift to the SP or at least keep it from falling all of November to that target, i.e., "buy the rumor sell the news" / FOMO type of thing?
I certainly feel that way. But maybe some think Cybertruck is a weird, limited production, money losing endeavor and don't put value in the event?
I did warn yesterday that Tesla being red pre-market has like a 80% chance going green.
Okay, let's say that's true and hence it doesn't go to $230-$250, but would it not at least put a floor on the drop from here?
However, I have to admit that counting waves on the smaller timeframes has its own hazards, namely the greater fluctuation which can muddy up the count, like trying to observe atoms vs stars. If I'm wrong on the smaller timeframe, then 175 will apply.
One thing i’ll say is, I never wait till my absolute target levels to begin scaling in. History has shown that if EVERYONE is looking at the same exact levels and technicals, we’re almost certain to never reach them. So, IF one is looking to build positioning, one has to be willing to start adding as we move CLOSER and CLOSER to the target levels. That’s why I’m selling puts to cover some of that delta. As noted in an earlier post, I’m targeting paying out somewhere in the $165 range for this next phase, which could mean outright buys 165-175, married to STO puts of 7-10$ per share at 175-185 ranges as fear takes hold.
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Why would it? It's not gonna make the next P&D and ER any prettier and those are the big elephants in the room. This is a market of substance. The hype market is dead.
I think the CT event could provide SOME lift, but not a lot, and probably only shortly before or shortly thereafter. As much as we shouldn’t get into this on THIS thread, I think overall global macro, and domestic politics and macro will be the catalysts to gIve downward share price movements that extra push. There is a lot of talk in DC about cutting/gutting IRA investments. Swapping funding for Israel/Ukraine for eliminating subsidies across the board. We have a USA planned gov’t shut down on 11/17/23. That didn’t play out well leading up to it last time and the current (I’ll call it this weeks) head of the House voted AGAINST it.
As much as we’ve seen an overall market lift this week, I think it’s more end of month window dressing than a change in fundamental thesis.. and sadly TSLA performed WORSE than the overall S&P or NSDQ, even more than normal. Can you imagine if that all reverses into early Nov how the standard TSLA multiplier or 2.2x would play out?
I will say this,, the ~$195 is turning out to provide stronger support than I had indicated. Doesn’t mean the thesis doesn’t hold (for lower price coming) but it’s more than a speed bump, but still less than a traffic cop. Overall, it means it will provide more RESISTANCE on the way back up - so put that into the future thinking once new positions are initiated. IF we still get down to 170-185 ranges, I’d probably do some short term selling of -CC in the 200-205$ range in the immediate aftermath.
SAPharmD
Member
It seems like we have sliced right through alot of "supports" when there has been the determination to sell. And it seems like this isn't the end of the target the "big boys" are planning. I definitely think you and @dl003 are right on track here. We have more (maybe alot more) pain to go.
At this point I'd be surprised of significant SP positives from the CT release event. The most recent earnings call said CT has ongoing challenges, will be a slow ramp up, and will lose money for ~18 months. At most maybe a couple of surprise spec releases like industry leading payload, 0-60mph acceleration time, and maybe plans for an SUV variant.
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