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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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I’d watch this like a hawk…there is a lot of market moving action in the next couple days. If AAPL s.t.b., going sub $160, we’re going to see S&P and NDQ down hard and TSLA won’t be spared. I’m mostly expecting AAPL to report poor rev/earnings, lower ASP’s and if any guidance comes out, be lower than any factset projection. Friday is BLS jobs, and if strong this too would put downward pressure on mats, elevating rates higher - which is what the bond vigilantes want with so much Treasury underwriting coming in the next 1-2 months. It’s so much more than a boatload, they’re going to need a bigger boat. ;-)

How are you playing TSLA for this week and next?
 
I’d watch this like a hawk…there is a lot of market moving action in the next couple days. If AAPL s.t.b., going sub $160, we’re going to see S&P and NDQ down hard and TSLA won’t be spared. I’m mostly expecting AAPL to report poor rev/earnings, lower ASP’s and if any guidance comes out, be lower than any factset projection. Friday is BLS jobs, and if strong this too would put downward pressure on mats, elevating rates higher - which is what the bond vigilantes want with so much Treasury underwriting coming in the next 1-2 months. It’s so much more than a boatload, they’re going to need a bigger boat. ;-)
I'm +$11 on the underlying +p200's, so it's a pretty comfortable trade, and now they are ITM as well with a 0.424 Delta, the -p195's have 0.315, so for the moment the long puts would gain more value, although I guess that would flip if the shorts went ITM... not to mention the 100x -c200's I sold yesterday @$4.3
 
How are you playing TSLA for this week and next?
I’m still waiting for the confirmed break below ~ $194, sub $18x to sell puts for monthly Nov and Jan 24, but we need that mkt or TSLA break to elevate premium to my preferred levels. I bought back the Nov 22x calls I sold, so I’m looking to resell for Nov again against the existing positions and am looking to the Nov $205 but want more than 7.5-$8 for them at this point, and would rebuy them post break below $190.

As I’ve said before, I let the price come to me. I don’t chase.

This support in the $197-199 range has increased in support in the past few sessions, previously it was weak, now it’s moderate.. but the $184.6 target is still there and a strong support - for a while at least.
 
QTA mid-morning update

MP @$205 + absGEX @$200. If I'm interpreting correctly this implies the pirates desire a close for Friday in the $200-210 range:

1698851889010.png



11/3

1698852009325.png
 
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Already looking ahead to next week. Given that 184.78 is the next main support, seems to me that -p190's for a premium of around $6 would be my target

My goal here is to try and keep my +p200's alive as insurance, but take some decent premium along the way in case the SP pops

Given we have FOMC later, which will may bring some wild volatility, might already set that order in place for $6.1 - again, bear in mind, calendar spread against March +p200, so super-safe and I can sell the long puts whenever if needed, although I prefer not to
 
We got about 2hrs 34 minutes before Powell Speech. No rate hike is the consensus but you never know. Make your bet, good luck, and hang tight.

Still holding onto my puts for 11/03. Tesla been stable at 200 since the morning up and down bounce. next couple of hours may break stalemate. Going to fetch more 11/03 options as they bounce cheaper toward Friday based on momentum. Now it's flat.
 
We got about 2hrs 34 minutes before Powell Speech. No rate hike is the consensus but you never know. Make your bet, good luck, and hang tight.

Still holding onto my puts for 11/03. Tesla been stable at 200 since the morning up and down bounce. next couple of hours may break stalemate. Going to fetch more 11/03 options as they bounce cheaper toward Friday based on momentum. Now it's flat.

"Economy is strong, we will raise rates." - bad
"Economy is weak, we will pause/cut." - bad

🤷‍♂️
 
No rate Hike. Stock still flats waiting for big man Powell to talk.....
That's normal, was a 99% expectation of no hike, so was all priced-in, the risk was a surprise hike or even cut

So now will all be about be the tone, the specific words used and whether he adjusts his tie, or coughs three times

Usually the Q&A is the when the markets dump

Can only go down from here I think, no way they'll announce a pause, more likely they'll say they "see the possibility to raise rates three more times in 2023" - even though there's only on opportunity. You know how it is...

A quick trip to $192 to fill my put sell would be welcome though 😆

Edit: JHole sounding quite dovish for once... maybe we'll get a "sell the news anyway", that's the way Wall Street operates
 
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That's normal, was a 99% expectation of no hike, so was all priced-in, the risk was a surprise hike or even cut

So now will all be about be the tone, the specific words used and whether he adjusts his tie, or coughs three times

Usually the Q&A is the when the markets dump

Can only go down from here I think, no way they'll announce a pause, more likely they'll say they "see the possibility to raise rates three more times in 2023" - even though there's only on opportunity. You know how it is...

A quick trip to $192 to fill my put sell would be welcome though 😆

Edit: JHole sounding quite dovish for once... maybe we'll get a "sell the news anyway", that's the way Wall Street operates
Words can change this a lot… I’m waiting for Dec 23, to see the next dot plot release. At that point we can see what percentage of fed governors see NO signficant drop in the fed funds rate in 2024..vs. those that saw some occurring starting in Q3’24..that would be the next influencing catalyst for equities.
 
The FOMC gurus I follow seem to think JPow's presser is pretty clearly signaling that the Fed is done hiking. Equities seem to agree.
I'm not listening live today, but I kind of sold those CC for next week, before he started talking, thinking that he would tank the market again and I could make a quick profit. I guess I was wrong....
 
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