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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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Just sold 197.5 puts and from Friday 240 CCs, rolled from 220.

I guess I'm a little more conservative than you but not as much as @BornToFly ;)
I like those strikes even better. Those are already at my guard rails, or really close, and wouldn't need as much of a roll should either be pressured.

OT, but I just found this little gem, straight from the mind of Peter. Gosh, how did I not short this stock at 60.
View attachment 988477
I have long said (like a decade worth) that part of Elon's brilliance is that he doesn't expend energy trying to tell people what they should want, or need. This being but 1 of many examples - it seems like the green / climate change crowd are too wrapped up in telling people what they should want, and not nearly wrapped up enough in making stuff economic and what people actually want.

He's been busy providing what people want, rather than building something green and trying to tell people its what they should get. People want fast chargers - telling people that they should want slow chargers is, as you're alluding to, worse than a waste of time. It's a pretty big disconnect between the manufacturer and their customers.
 
I'm not aware how to get historical options prices, but I guess a good practice could be to take a snapshot of the options ladder over the weekend, then see how it would have turned out the following Friday...

I don't know any free price downloads, there are some Excel plugins, but they're quite expensive, I'm going to start taking some screenshots each weekend of the coming 4 weeks premiums and see if it gives any insight

I daresay @Yoona has such data, shame she's not around still
For back testing manually I just use my crusty old Black Sholes spread with some assumptions.

IIRC, Yoona mostly gave stats on the SP rather than options. I don't think they had any more info than what you can get from Yahoo.
 
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@tivoboy New video from SpotGamma echos and supports your mid- to late Nov + OPEX on 11/17 weakness thesis as you‘ve said in reviewing the option flow:
(Short 3-min video)

Sounds good, but I'm seeing breaking news on X that Tesla may have a deal to build a factory in India. Combine that with possible good China delivery numbers in the morning, and things can turn around real fast....
 
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Just a personal note here:

My Model Y is at the Montreal service center for BMS voltage problems.

The model Y loaner they gave me has FSD, had to bring my oldest son to the downtown rink at 6:30PM in rain and full bike traffic. Just realized how Montreal with erased line, people sharing the same small line une to turn left and one to continue straight made FSD completely useless on 25% of the turns.

FSD must be a charm everywhere in the US where road are large and painted, it was the most unpleasant experience ever today.

On another note, if I buy AAPL put tomorrow at open, it’s guaranteed money right?
 

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Sounds good, but I'm seeing breaking news on X that Tesla may have a deal to build a factory in India. Combine that with possible good China delivery numbers in the morning, and things can turn around real fast....
Let’s hope so, though those factories take time to be built and don’t show up on the bottom line for a while. We also need macro to participate and not give back the recent gains, pulling our TSLA piñata along.
 
Late to post, OI increased greatest at p180, c230, c220, c235, tug of war at 217.5 and 220.

I'm wanting to expire 11/17 -c235/+c255 by rolling back to this week same width, -c230 ... bad idea? Either that or I close it out altogether, work the debit back to a credit with a better position once direction is set. Thoughts? It'd be a wash from initial position , two rolls to where I sit now.

day2dayoi-20231107.png
 
Late to post, OI increased greatest at p180, c230, c220, c235, tug of war at 217.5 and 220.

I'm wanting to expire 11/17 -c235/+c255 by rolling back to this week same width, -c230 ... bad idea? Either that or I close it out altogether, work the debit back to a credit with a better position once direction is set. Thoughts?

View attachment 988626
My thought is that this price action today makes no sense whatsoever, other than the desire of some parties to keep the stock below 220

Other tech is green, macro is flat - which may go up or down as we're in a resistance zone on the indices

So if they let their foot off the break can go up fast IMO

I'm also considering straddling some -c220's with the -p220's, but waiting to see if we get a reversal from here