Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[elasalle]

Can anyone figure out the meaning behind those small increases if not to just make analysts crazy with redoing their models

just a slight nudge/reminder that prices are not decreasing and hence not to wait ...

China numbers tonight, any chances these might have leaked

 

[steve3]

Can anyone figure out the meaning behind those small increases if not to just make analysts crazy with redoing their models

Kelvin Yang on X …
Sentiments attribute the price hike to the newly available Model 3 test drive vehicles, bringing in increased customer inflow as well as orders for both Model 3 and Y.

https://x.com/kelvinyang7/status/1724227251087040978?s=46&t=I6A4z5CaCiZTogZwM6NjDw

 

[dl003]

@dl003 are you going to bless us with the full-time report?

plan hasnt changed. 227 reached overnight. I need to see action in the RTH first. If you have ATM short puts, now might be the time to lighten up.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Probably source of strength AH:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1724222842206556647

They should double the price of the Model Y to double the value of my LEAPS

 

[dl003]

Some targets for the days ahead. https://www.patreon.com/posts/92848748

 

[Max Plaid]

Can anyone figure out the meaning behind those small increases if not to just make analysts crazy with redoing their models

Tesla claimed last week that it was to offset some higher costs, so maybe they're going to implement weekly changes from now on? That's would certainly be entertaining so say the least!

In other news, CN insurance numbers lower than last week, which is a bit surprising, 13K versus 14K, I would expect that to be drag on the stock today

As for me, right now my -c215 and -c220's are not looking great, the big conundrum is whether to wait and see how the week pans-out, roll them as best I can for free or roll them a couple of weeks to an even higher strike, some work and thinking to do before market open

 

[jeewee3000]

Technical question: I'm using mobile (android->chrome) to view the patreon website for dl003's posts, but the charts are quite small and I can't seem to find a way to zoom in/ expand them. Probably just my lacking internet-fu. Anyone know how to see the glorious details? (Or should I switch to the patreon app?)

 

[CHGolferJim]

For me this has been kind of flying under the radar - any guesses what impact on the stock market in general, and TSLA in particular, from the US government shutting down (at least partially) on Friday (or Saturday) when the current funding runs out?

Any bets on whether the House will actually get something passed?


My point isn't the politics of the House, or the shutdown - my point is that there is a much more than remote possibility of a significant economic disruption starting late this week, and that's worth some attention for us trading at the scale of days or weeks.

I know I've suddenly put this together (I've been more focused on the politics, and hadn't really tracked just how close to the deadline we've gotten), and I'm happier being short calls right now than puts.

From memory it seems like almost always these potential shutdown commotions cause a lot of chatter up until just before the deadline day, then get settled because the politicians are afraid of being blamed for inconveniencing all the people who get paid by federal government. However, it does seem like House action is more complicated this time.

 

[Max Plaid]

As you cal tell from the pop, CPI came in colder than consensus...

 

[juanmedina]

As you cal tell from the pop, CPI came in colder than consensus...

View attachment 990604

Can you imagine if the China number had been good? .

We are at $232 are we going straight to $242.

 

[Jim Holder]

Cary suggests $236.54 *might* be temp top of this run (touching it now in pre-market) and can fall back down to consolidate from there. Hence short-term swing traders may consider selling or closing longs/calls and wait for the reentry below. Matches @dl003 's 2nd target: "The second target is the $236-240 zone. $236 is the 2.618 yellow fib line. (DL's TSLA Technicals & Predictions | Patreon)."

Anyone else seeing same?

@dl003 Are you closing sold puts/bought calls and/or selling new short calls around $236?

Adding to that, options positioning confluences are all well below current price action, implying a likely reversion to the mean (down) by Friday if MM can pull it off, plus this week is monthly expiration so shenanigans possible.

 

[Nocturnal]

Wondering if we see a serious squeeze here. 5% pre market hasn't been seen in forever.

Technical question: I'm using mobile (android->chrome) to view the patreon website for dl003's posts, but the charts are quite small and I can't seem to find a way to zoom in/ expand them. Probably just my lacking internet-fu. Anyone know how to see the glorious details? (Or should I switch to the patreon app?)

Can you DL the pictures and then zoom in on them in the photo app?

 

[Jim Holder]

Can you DL the pictures and then zoom in on them in the photo app?

I tried this, it's very low res and not zoomable.

 

[dl003]

You can try to download the latest one again. I'll look for other solutions.

 

[UncaNed]

You can try to download the latest one again. I'll look for other solutions.

Much better! Thank you for taking the time for us!

 

[steve3]

You can try to download the latest one again. I'll look for other solutions.

Worked, thanks! Png link below chart in patreon app is expandable. (iphone user)

 

[Singuy]

Since no one is doing TA on 10 year rates but it looks like a head a shoulder to me and it's breaking the neck line.

 

[Jim Holder]

Update from Cary:

 

[dl003]

Cary suggests $236.54 *might* be temp top of this run (touching it now in pre-market) and can fall back down to consolidate from there. Hence short-term swing traders may consider selling or closing longs/calls and wait for the reentry below. Matches @dl003 's 2nd target: "The second target is the $236-240 zone. $236 is the 2.618 yellow fib line. (DL's TSLA Technicals & Predictions | Patreon)."

Anyone else seeing same?

@dl003 Are you closing sold puts/bought calls and/or selling new short calls around $236?

Adding to that, options positioning confluences are all well below current price action, implying a likely reversion to the mean (down) by Friday if MM can pull it off, plus this week is monthly expiration so shenanigans possible.

View attachment 990610

View attachment 990608

I will wait for a clear rejection, then sell call at the dead cat. Puts I'm still keeping open until I see the dead cat as they are now considered FOTM.

 

[Jim Holder]

I will wait for a clear rejection, then sell call at the dead cat. Puts I'm still keeping open until I see the dead cat as they are now considered FOTM.

Thanks. Let us know the level of the rejection when it comes.