Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Cherry Wine]

Tesla looking weaker by the hours. I might have to bail on those long calls if we don't recover soon. As CPI and Jpowell can delivered a double whammy and down we go.

Based on my 2 months experiencing doing both long and short - selling is the only ways to go for consistent incomes. Going long might delivered more immediate massive gains but risk are too high and the burns are too deep. Got to be a smarter doggy if want more then dry dog food.

My baseline expectation for tomorrow, based on commentary I trust, is hawkish SEP, dovish JPow, so I'm expecting the market to rally on his presser, but risk-off going into it. But I've skewed a bit bullish the past few weeks to no avail.

EDIT: I'm also already thinking ahead a bit to the 2024 election, and what a potential GOP trifecta would mean for Tesla's margins - I do not expect the IRA to survive such an outcome, but Elon's recent political gambit may pay dividends there...though I digress.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

uhhh BTO 12/15 P 250 for delta..
AND BTO some extra 12/15 P 220 for a quick drop, so will sell with a bit of theta left

closed the P250's again with a little profit, downward trend on the minute chart broken to the upside. (no big bets in the game)

 

[Jim Holder]

Where's Adam Jonas with a new $400 PT when we need him

 

[adiggs]

As I'm somewhere in the share acquisition range (don't have enough), I added csp 222.50's for next week, and 217.50 for 12/29 expiration this morning. I've already got 225s expiring next week - waiting the extra 2 trading days got me a better strike and some realized gain over the next week position I started with (230s).

Another down day and I'll another 12/29 csp position. My desire is that 2 of these 4 csp positions turn into shares.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

looks like a ($234) double bottom-rise for now.

 

[bingoz]

looks like a ($234) double bottom-rise for now.

234 is defending very well, but SPY and QQQ is quite overextended. A marco pull back could easily bring TSLA back to 22x anytime, maybe after JPowell talking tomorrow. 232-234 level has been a support for TSLA since November, but the more it's hitting, the weaker it is. At this price, I am just watching.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

uhhh BTO 12/15 P 250 for delta..
AND BTO some extra 12/15 P 220 for a quick drop, so will sell with a bit of theta left

now closed the P220 as well with a 40% loss
and STO12/15 -P 232.50 to compensate for the loss. Hope this was the last test down..

 

[BornToFly]

Finished the colonoscopy. Now waiting for the ass whooping....

Edit: Up $3 so from when he "went in..."

 

[thenewguy1979]

Those carrying long has had their ass whup so far….

 

[juanmedina]

I sold a few $230p for next week at $4.5.

 

[BornToFly]

looks like a ($234) double bottom-rise for now.

Technically it was a single bottom..., double cheek....

 

[elasalle]

not bad given that PPI and Fed talk still in play ...

 

[thenewguy1979]

Still holding my call spread +250C/-265C for the week. Going see how tomorrow play out.
SPY/QQQ are in Greenland going into tomorrow.

Let see where we go tomorrow. Getting boring lately....

 

[SAPharmD]

I'd actually argue that inflation came in ever so slightly warmer than expected, Core MoM higher than forecast, but in-libe with consensus, MoM Inflation in-line with forecast, but higher than concensus

Regardless, it's a pretty neutral reading and doesn't account for the TSLA drop, NVDA and AAPL took a similar hit

Hard to see any catalysts to the upside until P&D, so I'm likley to go fairly aggressive on calls into the year-end. I have 100x Jan 19 +c300's that I want to milk and still looking to offload the 60x Dec 2025 +c200's before Elon starts dumping stock to support his other venture... which I'm sure he will, just a question of when - early Q2 is what I'm reading... of course if P&D comes in good, or >500k and margins improve then we might get some traction, but then there's 2024 guidance to consider and although Tesla already said ~50% growth was off the table, so in theory priced-in, you can be sure the stock will dump when that message gets re-iterated on the Q4ER

In play for this week: 40x -p240 @$5.1 & 60x -c240 @$5.2, still looking to sell -c260's ifwe get a pop, butlooking more likely we'll wander around 235 - 240

FOMC tomorrow, expect zero rate changes and a hawkish JPow -> more talk of tightening than the converse I feel, no early Xmas presents from the FED

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You think that Elon will start selling stock again @Max Plaid? And you're thinking by Q2 next year? What makes you think that? Is there some sort of language he used/using that brings to your mind that this may (likely?) happen?

 

[Knightshade]

You think that Elon will start selling stock again @Max Plaid? And you're thinking by Q2 next year? What makes you think that? Is there some sort of language he used/using that brings to your mind that this may (likely?) happen?

Not to speak for MP, but Elons last comment on this I'm aware of is:

"I won't sell stock until I don't know probably two years from now. Definitely not next year under any circumstances and probably not the year thereafter,"

That was from 2022. So his "definitely" was about 2023, which is about to end.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Not to speak for MP, but Elons last comment on this I'm aware of is:

"I won't sell stock until I don't know probably two years from now. Definitely not next year under any circumstances and probably not the year thereafter,"

That was from 2022. So his "definitely" was about 2023, which is about to end.

There was a post of SP going down to 170. That may as well be the Catalyst along with current growth story...…

But we sure has been flatlining for a long times now - in dog days at least.

We closed under 237.30 which wicked stock did mentioned to go short, but still above 235....... which way are we going???

 

[Jim Holder]

We closed under 237.30 which wicked stock did mentioned to go short, but still above 235....... which way are we going???

The most entertaining outcome is likely

 

[SAPharmD]

There was a post of SP going down to 170. That may as well be the Catalyst along with current growth story...…

But we sure has been flatlining for a long times now - in dog days at least.

We closed under 237.30 which wicked stock did mentioned to go short, but still above 235....... which way are we going???

If he started aggressively selling again - around these numbers, I would imagine that it would likely go much lower than $170.

 

[Jim Holder]

If he started aggressively selling again - around these numbers, I would imagine that it would likely go much lower than $170.

Elon has money available from SpaceX and the AI venture from what people are saying. Not an immediate or even near-term concern to worry about.

Tesla’s growth, execution, ASP, margins, etc., however will definitely direct stock performance. We just have to see the early signals and trade both sides in the spirit of this forum of “Being the House.”

 

[Knightshade]

Elon has money available from SpaceX and the AI venture from what people are saying. Not an immediate or even near-term concern to worry about.

Does he?

AFAIK he's raised $0.00 from the AI venture. He filed to be ABLE to raise, then said in public he had no plans to do so right now.

SpaceX is fairly illiquid compared to TSLA, they ARE reportedly doing a cap raise from insider shares but only to the tune of hundreds of millions (and I doubt Elon is the ONLY insider selling in this raise)-- when Elon needs to bail the bird app out again he's gonna need something with a B in front of it.