EVNow
Well-Known Member
Oh yes - I was looking at the wrong column ... or rather a site that purports to show wall st secrets can't even format their screen properly
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
EVNow
Well-Known Member
@Yoona Do you have stats for earnings weeks ?
Essentially - I don't sell on earnings weeks because I feel the premiums don't adequately represent the risks i.e. the delta is lower than what it should be. For eg, if the history shows TSLA SP moves 10% in 2/10 earnings weeks, the delta should be around 0.20. If it is lower, we aren't getting adequate premiums. The current 230 call has a delta of 0.14, which I think is low.
Essentially - I don't sell on earnings weeks because I feel the premiums don't adequately represent the risks i.e. the delta is lower than what it should be. For eg, if the history shows TSLA SP moves 10% in 2/10 earnings weeks, the delta should be around 0.20. If it is lower, we aren't getting adequate premiums. The current 230 call has a delta of 0.14, which I think is low.
I've bought calls OTM in advance to back +/- 15-20% sold calls ... most often they end up worthless. This weeks it's the +c285 for instance that I bought the week before. Rightfully so, it was far OTM. On hte other hand, gauging M-P for next week, how do you project out what may end up being an appreciating call without
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
A perfect storm is brewing.I really, REALLY hope this is all a GIANT Bear trap that will play out in the next two weeks as we shoot back to 260....
But I am also getting mentally prepared to visit 150 if the NASDAQ crashes from its current ATH.... I will be quick to sell shares if ER is a disappointment.
chance of us shooting back to 260 seem so remote now.......
but cheap wager for the upside if using BCS. 2 weeks out from earning should be adequate timing if ER turn out good. 10:1 max profit to loss ratio
Adding play for downside.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
I made two far OTM bigger volume bets , one earlier this week BTO 1/26 +P145 for a few cents and now BTO 1/26 +C267.50 again for a few cents. Maybe scalping something on one or maybe even both (in case of huge pre/post ER delta)
If you figure out the sweet spot, please let me know
I settled on 1/26 c230 and 2/2 c250. Relatively small positions given the highly speculative nature of the position, but I like the risk/reward ratio here. Will get out on any decent rise into earnings; unsure if I would just ride out continued weakness into earnings - will take that as it comes.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
I still have some -212.5p in play for next week. If we don't bounce at least to there I'm going to dig a hole in the sand and just put my head in there in embarrassment.
Interesting. Fidelity's probability calculator is still saying almost 10% chance we end below 205 today. Doesn't seem right to me. I think my -205P are safe at this point....
I have a confession to make...sold some shares today at $210. These were most of my wheel shares which funded our dream retirement property ~10 acres and ~700 feet of shoreline on the water. Thanks to this forum, we were able to keep all of our core original shares plus some wheel shares. Of course timing isn't great with TSLA dumping like this, but this property has never been on the market (its been in the same family since the 1800's and we got it via a pocket listing), so #yolo.
To help fund the property, rolled my DEC2025 330CC to JUN2026 300CC for a healthy credit. My feeling here is 2024 is going to be a flat year for TSLA so I am not to worried about getting out of the my CC if I need too. And if I do? Oh well, its been a good run and I will take $300 a share.
To help fund the property, rolled my DEC2025 330CC to JUN2026 300CC for a healthy credit. My feeling here is 2024 is going to be a flat year for TSLA so I am not to worried about getting out of the my CC if I need too. And if I do? Oh well, its been a good run and I will take $300 a share.
I've been doing a similar strategy where I'm selling CC at a strike price (400-450) with a date of Dec 2025 where I'll likely ride out a majority of them unless we get a major drop in the stock because I think time decay will drop their value considerably over the course of 2024. In early 2025 if the stock is still around here or even like 250, they'll be much cheaper to close out. And if the stock goes a major rally and those share get called away, given the past 3 years and heart burn from Elon......I'll gladly take $400-450/share for a third of my total share count. I'll be plenty happy with that.
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Haha we view it differently. The more the QQQ rips and TSLA underperforms, the more I worry about the macro rug pull being brutal for TSLAQQQ ripping higher to new ATHs for the last 3 hours has kept TSLA from going under 200 today....
I agree. My comment was a little /sHaha we view it differently. The more the QQQ rips and TSLA underperforms, the more I worry about the macro rug pull being brutal for TSLA
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Now delta of 0.023 ... so more like 97% it will end up OTM.
Or money can flow from the ATH tech into the beaten down TSLAHaha we view it differently. The more the QQQ rips and TSLA underperforms, the more I worry about the macro rug pull being brutal for TSLA
I keep waiting for it....Or money can flow from the ATH tech into the beaten down TSLA
Any day now…..cough I mean any year nowI keep waiting for it....
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