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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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My play for the Put side to form a complete straddle.

If ER is bad - the pain should be swift. 20x upside. Cheap play. Going out more OTM is cheaper but reduce the % of hitting the number by Feb 2.

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Note - if SP trade sideway straddle will be busted. But combined 500 investment for 20-30x upside is peanuts. Not many ER come along as hot or with much anticipation as this one is.
I think I will do -175/+180 for Feb 2 (or 180/185). Keeping it a little narrower for less cost/risk. Still a nice $5 gain potentially (minus premium). It would be nice to open on a pop to make it even cheaper.
 
7DTE of mag7 + major indices

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conclusion: SPY appears to be the least violent 7DTE

(perhaps best for IC)

i am going to examine the chain if it's worth it shifting some trades over to SPY... less income but seems to be less risky
 
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7DTE of mag7 + major indices

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conclusion: SPY appears to be the least violent 7DTE

(perhaps best for IC)

i am going to examine the chain if it's worth it shifting some trades over to SPY... less income but seems to be less risky
SPY 7DTE 6-8% OTM appears to be safe (backtested to 2020)

like TSLA, higher chance of breach on calls than on puts

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Super informative, thank you! Easy to see that AI, digital and cloud services companies are there, but no car companies.

Seems the market still prices $TSLA as a car company. Is the spring compressed wildly or is this closer to a true market value? I get that the answer is most likely complex, but seems dominated by the fed rates not coming down. Or to say it another way, I'm careful to not sell CCs for 2/2 expiry if there is a surprise cut https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/in...trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html (which is very doubtful at the moment)
 
This is absolute premium and not normalized right? I.e given that nvda is almost 3x tsla, you can get almost 3x the premium given the same capital.
for a 6-delta, 30-wide IC
  • NVDA would give 1.18
  • TSLA would give 0.93
27% more income for the same capital (if spreads)

but the NVDA swings are too wide, so 6-delta is probably risky

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Another interesting view, though I realize one can make a chart look however they want (i.e., counting the “artificial” 2023 low as part of a trend). But even without that we got an uptrend with slightly rangebound action.

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To be fair, also lower highs since July, so...
 
for a 6-delta, 30-wide IC
  • NVDA would give 1.18
  • TSLA would give 0.93
27% more income for the same capital (if spreads)

but the NVDA swings are too wide, so 6-delta is probably risky

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Good point, for trading covered calls or cash-secured puts, TSLA is almost 2x better than NVDA for ROIC, but for spreads the share price is irrelevant 👍