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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
He might not be far wrong on the automotive side, but I expect Energy revenue to come in a lot higher
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Market may have already priced in the ER. The forecast for 2024 would be the deal breaker.
That and Elon having a bad day.
Netflix ER is stellar. Hitting almost 10% AH.
That may help Macro and Tesla get an early morning pump tomorrow.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Back to the posturing theory. Let see if it play out tomorrow.
Below is Netflix 1 month before ER
Below is Tesla 1 month before ER
Below is Netflix 1 month before ER
Below is Tesla 1 month before ER
EVNow
Well-Known Member
So, 6 out of last 8 earnings have seen higher actual moves compared to implied. But all within 10%.
TSLA, RIVN, NIO, XPEV charts all look similar. All oversold on RSI. EV FUD has had a broad effect. Might be the next segment to take off again....
Attachments
Uh, are we looking at the same data?
Update:… ok, I see what I think you mean.. the move was more extreme, but not technically ”higher”
The fact that sentiment has been so bad going into the call is what is keeping me away. I just have no feel for how the market is going to react.
I watched the video from Access-A-Trader. He said there hasn't been much institutional Put buying ahead of earnings....
Maybe we need to be a little careful on the Call selling after all. It might just go up a lot if there is just no bad news....
Maybe we need to be a little careful on the Call selling after all. It might just go up a lot if there is just no bad news....
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Here a nice weekly candle graph showing stock movement in relation to ER.
That 200 resistance/support does seem quite strong.
edit: nagging feeling - what if this is just a big Bear Trap??
That 200 resistance/support does seem quite strong.
edit: nagging feeling - what if this is just a big Bear Trap??
ChiefRollo
Member
Sold some puts committing to below $200 buying, something I’m okay with.
Love the weekly graph with the ERs listed. There was only one ER with 4 weekly Red candles before it and it was followed by two Green weeks. Now we have had 5 Red weekly candles going into the ER....
You can never call a movement before earnings a trap because there is always the risk of something like Elon saying we plan to grow 0% This year while we ramp. In which case no trap. And NVDA last year where they just blasted up 20% after a sick earnings even though it had gone up so much already.
TSLA switched to Sell the rumour, buy the news?
Interesting take:
allllsevensnewsletter.beehiiv.com
“TSLA has the highest level of institutional interest out of any stock. When you look at the monthly chart, it’s as clear as ever that institutional money is buying this stock. Why is it struggling so bad to trend up? Why is this low volume rejection every single high? Well, there’s a lot of uncertainty around TSLA stock at the moment. Controversy even. This isn’t what short-term focused retail investors want to see. The long-term institutional investors don’t care. They know the uncertainty and controversy will clear up in a decade. This is why I believe the upcoming earnings report could be very critical to whether or not this six month candle can rally into the summer. Short-term sentiment needs to be shifted! Uncertainty needs to be unveiled. So, how likely is it that this earnings report is extremely positive and shifts the current downtrend into an uptrend? Well it’s inherently unlikely because this is a pretty much random news event, but I have been collecting lots of data on this stocks price action and options flow and I have to lean to the long side…” (continued in the link)
Tesla, Inc. & Intel Corporation
A long-term & short-term perspective headed into important earnings reports.
allllsevensnewsletter.beehiiv.com
“TSLA has the highest level of institutional interest out of any stock. When you look at the monthly chart, it’s as clear as ever that institutional money is buying this stock. Why is it struggling so bad to trend up? Why is this low volume rejection every single high? Well, there’s a lot of uncertainty around TSLA stock at the moment. Controversy even. This isn’t what short-term focused retail investors want to see. The long-term institutional investors don’t care. They know the uncertainty and controversy will clear up in a decade. This is why I believe the upcoming earnings report could be very critical to whether or not this six month candle can rally into the summer. Short-term sentiment needs to be shifted! Uncertainty needs to be unveiled. So, how likely is it that this earnings report is extremely positive and shifts the current downtrend into an uptrend? Well it’s inherently unlikely because this is a pretty much random news event, but I have been collecting lots of data on this stocks price action and options flow and I have to lean to the long side…” (continued in the link)
Reuters, so to be taken with some scepticism, but they're not in the habit of reporting false positives:
Now if this was actually actually announced by Tesla then we might get some upside
Now if this was actually actually announced by Tesla then we might get some upside
But don’t we already know this? Tesla has a Mexico site that will start construction soon, and supposedly, a pilot plant within Giga Texas that is supposed to start this next gen car late this year or early next year. Isn’t this just confirmation?
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