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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Very little put buying coming in for TSLA, anyone else notice that?
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Guess based on how the team is betting - we need either Oppenhiemer or Sky is Falling.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
More people are betting that we go up after ER and the worse is over.
Also Calls are cheap now.....
Good time to load up on some cheap spread to round out both side for those looking for explosive ER.
Been noticing that the growth stocks I own/watch have consistently had false breakouts for the past week. Open big and sold off. Multiple ways to interpret it but I personally view it as there's about to be a huge breakout in small to medium cap growth stocks.
Probably flat for the next 2 weeks or slightly down before major liftoff.
Would love to TSLA to be grouped into that growth stock play that is incoming but that's entirely up to Tesla tomorrow.
I'm personally taking a very cautious approach to tomorrow. Sold a couple more CC's for June 2026 and closed a handful of Dec 2025 CC's.
Things like this (from a former Tesla employee and current AI engineer at Google....not the common Tesla twitter bull) -
make me very cautious about having any CC's below a strike price that I'm truly comfortable getting my shares called away. If Tesla has its' OpenAI moment in the next quarter or two or Wall St decides to flip the script and view Tesla as a AI play, things could run very fast.
Probably flat for the next 2 weeks or slightly down before major liftoff.
Would love to TSLA to be grouped into that growth stock play that is incoming but that's entirely up to Tesla tomorrow.
I'm personally taking a very cautious approach to tomorrow. Sold a couple more CC's for June 2026 and closed a handful of Dec 2025 CC's.
Things like this (from a former Tesla employee and current AI engineer at Google....not the common Tesla twitter bull) -
make me very cautious about having any CC's below a strike price that I'm truly comfortable getting my shares called away. If Tesla has its' OpenAI moment in the next quarter or two or Wall St decides to flip the script and view Tesla as a AI play, things could run very fast.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Put IV is higher than call for same % OTM.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
No - FSD is nowhere near close. Its not about having one drive without interventions - but being able to drive for months, if not years without an intervention.
That doesn't mean Wall St will suddenly not wake up one day and think FSD is "solved". Then we'll have a Hetrz/NACS moment ...
For the flow readers I guess this means MM are not expecting TSLA to go up and more likely to go down instead (prices are raised for desirable things and lowered for less desirable)?
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Conspiracy theories aside ... prices depend on buyers / sellers. If one MM tries to play "cute" other MMs will pounce on it.
P180 volume 18k. C235 volume is 11k.
To say FSD is nowhere close when V12 is just rolling out with a completely new architecture that in theory, should advance exponentially faster than the legacy architecture that we've seen for the past 2-3 years is premature IMO.
But regardless, that doesn't matter. I'm not talking about Robotaxi or interventions being months in between instead of hours or days.
It's about when FSD gets good enough that the average consumer is willing to pay $200/month for it or Tesla gets aggressive with adoption by lowering subscription monthly cost. Or when thew new architecture advances so far to where new markets are opened up for it (China/Europe). All of these things will juice earnings without Robotaxi or intervention rates at once a month or couple months.
Once Tesla shows a quarter where FSD subscription rates materially impact, this stock is off to the races.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
There you have it - the reason some might push up the price. I'm in the "show me" category ... but who knows how many are in the excited category on Wall St ?!
ps :
How do you get a large % of customers to baby something and monitor closely and pay $200 a month ? Most customers don't care that this is bleeding edge. They want to text, eat, play games ... that is when they will pay $200 a month.
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jeewee3000
Active Member
Understandable and cautious behaviour.
That said, when the stock rallies, it doesn't give warning signs ahead of time. It just goes. Q1 2020 ER comes to mind, nobody saw that coming.
Every ER there's a chance of a surprise, especially after the stock got hammered. That's why I'm holding off on selling calls into tomorrow's ER.
(But I do realise a crazy rally is unlikely since there aren't many
possible surprises. Only improved margins due to lower COGS can provide the necessary jolt IMO)
Video worth a watch (30 seconds). Relevant to this week:
“Place your entries where the masses place their stops.” —David Paul
“Place your entries where the masses place their stops.” —David Paul
This is why PFOF is worth as much as it is. I could win every auction at Christies if everyone had a little bubble above their head that showed their highest price.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Absolutely - thats why I sit out on ER weeks (though I'm thinking of selling 15% OTM options tomorrow before market close).
ps : This ER everyone seems to be pessimistic. So, its either going to be bad - so duh, why would you expect anything different, didn't you see what everyone said ... or ofcourse we should expect the opposite of what everyone says from Tesla
Yeah, thank Dog I was only buying shares and LEAPs back then, made an absolute killing...
Anyway, back to the present, BTC 100x -c230 @$1.29 (net +$4.31) -> STO 50 x-c220 @$3.20 -> I'm more comfortable managing 100x -c220 than 50x -c220 and 100x -c230 if both were to go ITM, have 100x contracts spare for rolling
IV for Friday has been increasing all week, currently 96%, might break 100% tomorrow...
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I'm with you on the "show me" category. But it's very pertinent to look for signs and clues because when Tesla does in fact "show us", the stock will be on a massive rocket higher. I will say....it's very hard to actually try and judge progress because of certain Twitter FSD users that always overhype
I think there's an an in between crowd. Because you're talking about the consumer base that wants Robotaxi level FSD.
But there is a crowd between what FSD currently is and that Robotaxi crowd. Take a Uber driver. Let's say Tesla can get V12 FSD intervention rates down to rare cases, essentially one intervention per week or one intervention per every 3 days for a high frequency user. At that level of performance, an Uber driver would probably be willing to pay $200/monthly for the comfort and safety of using FSD.
Anyways, what I'm talking about is FSD just getting good enough to materially increase monthly subscription adoption and start a curve for it. Because then it allows Tesla to boast in its earnings 'X' number of monthly subscribers and then show materially QoQ rate adoption increase.
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Knightshade
Well-Known Member
The counter-point (and it has been discussed to death elsewhere-and there's tons of studies/evidence on this- and further talk on it belongs elsewhere)- the nearer to 0 intervention, without BEING 0 intervention, an automated system gets, the greater the odds the human stops paying sufficient attention and an accident happens. And while it would still be the humans "fault" that's not traditionally how the narrative on this stuff has gone.
I'd also argue Uber drivers margins are already quite thin so an extra $200/mo is a bit of a lift for them for just L2 ADAS.
I would like to see some of those studies and evidence of Teslas crashing more because AP is now so much better.
Tesla has moved 10x more cars with autopilot than pre-2018. Most can agree regular AP is much better than AP from early 2016-2017. So now that AP is much better today in 2024, and now every car is equipped with AP for free, where are my ...at least 10x crashes and deaths just to be a base line vs pre 2018? Lets see some of those studies where we see much crashes as people become more complacent.
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