Depending on how you read the source, they are asked to be prepared to supply for 10000 cars a week in mid 2025. That sounds like production starts late 2024, and ramp picks up speed in middle 2025.
Though that might be my rose coloured glasses.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Though that might be my rose coloured glasses.
jeewee3000
Active Member
The other way round. Parts come before the ramp. 10k ask (parts) by mid 2025 means ramp (cars) to 10k by end of 2025.
same with Monday: Tuesday was also net more calls than puts (but not as intense)
yesterday's million-dollar bets: 1/26 -p197.50 $4M
there are more calls than puts on $100k+ bets, mostly 210-215
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Isn't it that capacity comes before the ramp and parts come as needed (X month forecast)?
Yes, "we" know this, but the general public don't, or don't believe it will happen so soon...
The pessimistic way to look at it is the Sinclair Effect to temper demand today.
jeewee3000
Active Member
Last reply on this not to de-rail the thread, but I wasn't talking production capacity, but actual units produced.
I remember this from the model 3 ramp and what I've read about it in Elon's biographies: if you want to produce X numbers of cars per week at a certain timeline, you have to be sure the supply chain(s) will be at level X by then. Trying to time this is why "manufacturing is excruciatingly difficult" (Elon) but for first ramps you have to assume somethings will go wrong with some suppliers and therefore you need them to output X amount of parts a certain time BEFORE your planned production date.
The next-gen pilot line is being designed as we speak at Giga Tesla. They will "produce" test vehicles at very low numbers in the coming 6-12 months and keep improving the manufacturing line, with the end goal of it being largely automated, extremely fast, extremely robust, and easy to copy. By then (or soon after) the Giga Mexico outward shell should be completed, and the line will be copied there (possibly multiple lines), AND in Giga Berlin and Shanghai. The next-gen vehicle will ramp unlike anything we've seen yet with Tesla (at 4 locations), and a mere 18 months can mean the difference between 10/week and 20.000/week.
The timing of all this (start of S-curve) is debatable, but by Q1 2026 we should see production of the next-gen car at multiple locations already. Tick tok tick tok.
To bring it back on topic: right now I'm not LEAP-minded since I can see enough scenarios where the stock stays rangebound ($150-300) for a year.
If by end of 2024 or early 2025 the SP has not exceeded $250-$300 I think I'll build a LEAP position with expiration JAN2027, due to the considerations above. FSD and Bots are pipedreams in the eyes of most institutional investors, but a new car model at ASP $X, profit margins of Y% and a production goal of Z-million units = share price boost.
I was thinking about buying Rivian calls or puts instead of Tesla because they usually move together but Rivian with a higher degree and then I don't have to deal with the IV crush if I am wrong. I haven't plotted anything or really look into it but that's what I have noticed. Thoughts?
As of right now I have $185-180 puts and I am holding some shares and some underwater LEAPS. I am leaning bearish for ER but the FSD 12V looks really from Omar's video and I am tempted to subscribe and try it out and the $25k car news is good.
As of right now I have $185-180 puts and I am holding some shares and some underwater LEAPS. I am leaning bearish for ER but the FSD 12V looks really from Omar's video and I am tempted to subscribe and try it out and the $25k car news is good.
Or to initiate the pump back up to wipe out the long puts and short calls...
The timing of the Redwood leak is odd: right on earnings day. Did it get leaked to soften the blow of a disappointing delivery outlook for 2024, by providing a glimpse of a much better 2025 and beyond? Or am I seeing things that aren't there?
Leak likely had nothing to do with Tesla , and everything to do with market makers…
SebastienBonny
Member
Everything is possible, but why would Reuters want to soften the blow? I read a lot of institutionals were/are buying now and retail is scared. I'd rather think about that.
Missed the opportunity twice to roll my positions to 02/23 when we went a bit higher last two days, so hoping for a momentum today as well.
Looking to roll 220 -p (expires on friday) to 02/23 215 -p for some credit (2 would be great) and still holding a 240 CC for friday as well. Thinking of replacing that one with a 230 CC for 02/23, but looking for about 6 as premium so need some upside for that first.
I could sit it out as well and wait and see, but with the current stock price a tanking scenario would probably lead to instant assignment of the 220 put, which I wouldn't like to happen if we go way lower than this. I'd rather roll a tad lower or maybe even same strike next month. A lot can happen in one month, even a recovery after a possible initial disappointment.
Should earnings surprise, I would've been better off doing nothing, but that's the name of the game.
Dan Shapiro's TSLA possible targets for today/also resistance:
$213.11
$214.27
$218.00
Holding above $218 can stretch more
$213.11
$214.27
$218.00
Holding above $218 can stretch more
I am moving -p210 spread for Friday out of this week, preferably down at even or debit if needed. Do you like 2/23 because it's a credit or is the intent to park there to expire or next move out?
Interesting - I was thinking to BTC the 130x Sep 2024 -c270's as yesterday the Bid was $1.50 lower than what I sold them for, but today they've gone back up by the same amount, now I see that IV changed from 43.3% to 44.9%
I don't really monitor these things much, so no idea whether that's a lot, or not, given the SP is essentially flat
I don't really monitor these things much, so no idea whether that's a lot, or not, given the SP is essentially flat
SebastienBonny
Member
I'm consistently rolling my positions to the last week of the next month since May because it gives me a more relax feeling than doing weeklies. It also gives more opportunities because the time span is longer. Sometimes I roll 2 weeks before expiry, because there's a good option. Actually it's never my intention to let an option expire.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Today doggy do nothing.
Already position with strangle for 2/2.
Sideway got it too
Total invested $1K.
Not adding anymore.
Already position with strangle for 2/2.
Sideway got it too
Total invested $1K.
Not adding anymore.
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