Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[StarFoxisDown!]

Ah, that's why it dropped, otherwise the numbers aren't too bad

https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-contents/image/upload/IR/TSLA-Q4-2023-Update.pdf

Operating margin going down despite selling materially more cars is bad. No way to sugarcoat that. Also, Energy major disappointment.

Where did the huge GAAP beat come from?

Edit: Oh I see now, it came from them recognizing the tax benefit......lol we've been speculating for years on when they would finally recognize that. Finally happened

 

[juanmedina]

From $196 to $204.... I guess when Elon starts talking they will really dump it

 

[doddiozil]

the release of valuation allowance on certain deferred tax assets increased net income by $5bil

 

[BornToFly]

Sorry, but these numbers look good. Much higher Free cash flow than people were predicting.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Sorry, but these numbers look good. Much higher Free cash flow than people were predicting.

Does the deferred tax benefit that caused the massive GAAP beat help FCF at all?

If not, then yes, the FCF numbers are way better than expected.

 

[Knightshade]

Sorry, but these numbers look good. Much higher Free cash flow than people were predicting.

" In 2024, our vehicle volume growth rate may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023"

That's what WS is gonna care about.

 

[BornToFly]

" In 2024, our vehicle volume growth rate may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023"

That's what WS is gonna care about.

OK, but then shouldn't they care about much larger energy growth this year? And next Gen vehicle in 2025? The future looks great.

 

[EVNow]

Operating margin going down despite selling materially more cars is bad. No way to sugarcoat that.

That is a deliberate strategy … sacrificing profit for volume. IMO, once the interest rate drops, they can bring up ASP and GM. Not to Covid levels, which were a one off sting, but better than today.

But 2024 will likely continue to be bearish, should be better in 2025.

 

[thenewguy1979]

WS is holding out to hear what Elon have to said. A few dollar dump is nothing guys.......

Please make sure Elon smoke what Jensen Huang is smoking before he start talking.

 

[SebastienBonny]

OK, but then shouldn't they care about much larger energy growth this year? And next Gen vehicle in 2025? The future looks great.

Yes. It’s all about 2025. We all knew that here.

 

[tivoboy]

Notably, overall operation margin is now cut IN HALF… due to reduced ASP.. we knew this would happen, but I don’t think anyone modeled that to this extent.

 

[EVNow]

OK, but then shouldn't they care about much larger energy growth this year? And next Gen vehicle in 2025? The future looks great.

If TSLA is not expected to grow this year, wall st will put money in stocks that are expected to grow. Not surprising… and actually quite rational.

 

[Knightshade]

OK, but then shouldn't they care about much larger energy growth this year?

Energy revenue was DOWN in Q4 from Q3... and only up 10% YoY (though PROFIT was much higher). Solar also continued to decline hilariously.

Moreover energy continues to only be a single-digit percentage of total company revenue. It's still, by revenue, almost entirely a car company. And a car company whose growth on cars is going to be poor in 2024, and whose margins on those cars have shrunk massively.

And next Gen vehicle in 2025? The future looks great.

Speculative future product that will not have any positive economic impact in 2024 is not likely to help the stock price here in January 2024.

 

[tivoboy]

Operating margin going down despite selling materially more cars is bad. No way to sugarcoat that. Also, Energy major disappointment.

Where did the huge GAAP beat come from?

Edit: Oh I see now, it came from them recognizing the tax benefit......lol we've been speculating for years on when they would finally recognize that. Finally happened

Probably sales of bitcoin and credits.

 

[BornToFly]

So the drop from 260+ to 200 now didn't price any of this in....

 

[Jim Holder]

So the drop from 260+ to 200 now didn't price any of this in....

Maybe the run to 265 was based on air in the first place

 

[BornToFly]

I sold 1,000 shares just before close in case the SP went down to help deal with my -210Ps for Friday.

 

[Knightshade]

So the drop from 260+ to 200 now didn't price any of this in....

If Tesla is "just" a car company (and over 90% of revenue is from the car business)--- and their growth is going to be very modest in 2024--and with modest margins- then the P/E ratio even at 200/sh is "too high"

 

[EVNow]

Probably sales of bitcoin and credits.

No - it’s the old tax benefit recognition.

 

[mongo]

Energy revenue was DOWN in Q4 from Q3... and only up 10% YoY (though PROFIT was much higher). Solar also continued to decline hilariously.

Moreover energy continues to only be a single-digit percentage of total company revenue. It's still, by revenue, almost entirely a car company. And a car company whose growth on cars is going to be poor in 2024, and whose margins on those cars have shrunk massively.



Speculative future product that will not have any positive economic impact in 2024 is not likely to help the stock price here in January 2024.

Energy is super lumpy. Hawaii Megapack installation booked in first weeks of Q1.