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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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It’s really just a technical overboughtedness scale.. what I like to follow is the extreme FOMO, and MOMO ETF, and the build in retail investor money flows.. that’s when you know the rug is going to be pulled out, or the music stops, or there’s a missing chair, etc.
And how are they reading right now?
 
Expecting a Macro ATH pullback soon are we? CPI next week....
I’m selling calls in Mar/Apr at this point… against the other 97.5% of my ports. AMD, MSFT, NVDA, CRM, LLY, MSFT, AAPL, BKNG, MAR, PCAR, GE, META, AMZN, AVGO, AMGN, ADBE, IYH, MU and some others.. its been a daily exercise. LOTS of premium, which is good but some rolling has been required.

For TSLA, there isn’t enough -CC premium really to warrant my effort. I’m watching +p and some -p positions for MAR for more premiums and entry.
 
I’m selling calls in Mar/Apr at this point… against the other 97.5% of my ports. AMD, MSFT, NVDA, CRM, LLY, MSFT, AAPL, BKNG, MAR, PCAR, GE, META, AMZN, AVGO, AMGN, ADBE, IYH, MU and some others.. its been a daily exercise. LOTS of premium, which is good but some rolling has been required.

For TSLA, there isn’t enough -CC premium really to warrant my effort. I’m watching +p and some -p positions for MAR for more premiums and entry.
Curious what Call are you selling against NVDA. That one seem to be the "crazy" one now.... crazy dog me was planning to sell ATM Puts for NVDA and close them out before earning to ride the pump wagon.

Is there a % from the SP that the Call are sold - 15% OTM? Naked Call or Long Leg bounded 30 width etc..?

Was waiting for the world domination plan which you were working on :)
 
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Holy 💩

NVDA IC for next Friday +570/-600 -800/+830 pays 0.53
What?!?

1707434857607.png
 
Holy 💩

NVDA IC for next Friday +570/-600 -800/+830 pays 0.6ish
What?!?

IV is insane right now. Earning is on the 21st I wonder if it will sell off.

Screenshot_20240208-185740.png


@Yoona we have Mike's thread just for you. Please post NVDIA data there:


 
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@Max Plaid what's your method for estimating extrinsic value on an option at x price. For example, I have 15x -P280 1/2025 that shows $3.46 extrinsic @ SP $187.50. I'm looking to learn how to model what the extrinsic will be at slices below, say $270, $260, $250, etc. to estimate when extrinsic falls to $0.00 and danger of early assignment looms.

TIA
 
@Max Plaid what's your method for estimating extrinsic value on an option at x price. For example, I have 15x -P280 1/2025 that shows $3.46 extrinsic @ SP $187.50. I'm looking to learn how to model what the extrinsic will be at slices below, say $270, $260, $250, etc. to estimate when extrinsic falls to $0.00 and danger of early assignment looms.

TIA

Isn't it just a function of what the bid price is? If people are willing to pay more than the intrinsic value of the option, then it still has extrinsic value. I've never seen it as anything that can be estimated, because there were times when a higher strike put (short-hand for "strike price of put option") actually had MORE extrinsic value (because the lower strike put was thinly traded) and same with calls (but in opposite direction).
 
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Isn't it just a function of what the bid price is? If people are willing to pay more than the intrinsic value of the option, then it still has extrinsic value. I've never seen it as anything that can be estimated, because there were times when a higher strike put (short-hand for "strike price of put option") actually had MORE extrinsic value (because the lower strike put was thinly traded) and same with calls (but in opposite direction).
True! But @Max Plaid has a way to ballpark it which I’m trying to learn how he does it.
 
Well the way NVDA has been going, I wouldn't be that confident writing a -c730 for tomorrow!

Plus is has gone up so far for so long now, it's surely due a correction at some point...?
you know, i eat corrections for breakfast 😬

1707438201250.png


nvda is starting to lose momentum; IV is a bit dropping and call volume fell over 4 days, hinting tiredness to the upside

SPY daily/weekly are overdue for pullbacks; only 256 stocks are up and the rest are red for the year (tsla is #1 loser)

of the green 256, 40% of gains are from only 4 stocks and the other 252 stocks are not participating as much so beneath the surface, the stock market is not as strong as it seems

NASDAQ 60 min/daily are also overdue for pullbacks
 
@Yoona we have Mike's thread just for you. Please post NVDIA data there:
TYVM but i am still not convinced ppl want to go back-and-forth 2 options threads

besides, what is there to talk about TSLA only? it's up, now it's down, oh it's up again, never mind down again, here's a line to look at, there's another line, wait an hour for the next post, here's my trade, oh look EM tweeted something, etc

there is nothing new to learn about options if we're talking about the same thing day in and day out

if i posted my dramatic nvda 1dte vs tsla 7dte trade on the other thread, hooray all of 3 ppl would see it

how does that benefit the tsla community if they didn't know they could park their capital somewhere else while waiting for tsla to come back?

the irony is, most of those who want to keep this thread "tsla only pls" hardly even post anything, if at all

all take on the give-and-take

sorry, mods
 
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IV is insane right now. Earning is on the 21st I wonder if it will sell off.

View attachment 1016682

@Yoona we have Mike's thread just for you. Please post NVDIA data there:


I definitely will NOT do a NVDA IC earnings week. I could definitely see a 25% swing. But I think I will play next week.... 👀

Would also love to know of other stocks that have nice premiums on a $30 wide spread, and have good volume....
 
TYVM but i am still not convinced ppl want to go back-and-forth 2 options threads

besides, what is there to talk about TSLA only? it's up, now it's down, oh it's up again, never mind down again, here's a line to look at, there's another line, wait an hour for the next post, here's my trade, oh look EM tweeted something, etc

there is nothing new to learn about options if we're talking about the same thing day in and day out

if i posted my dramatic nvda 1dte vs tsla 7dte trade on the other thread, hooray all of 3 ppl would see it

how does that benefit the tsla community if they didn't know they could park their capital somewhere else while waiting for tsla to come back?

the irony is, most of those who want to keep this thread "tsla only pls" hardly even post anything, if at all

all take on the give-and-take

sorry, mods
She has a point this thread can handle two stocks easily. Her contribution will bene fit everyone.
 
@Max Plaid what's your method for estimating extrinsic value on an option at x price. For example, I have 15x -P280 1/2025 that shows $3.46 extrinsic @ SP $187.50. I'm looking to learn how to model what the extrinsic will be at slices below, say $270, $260, $250, etc. to estimate when extrinsic falls to $0.00 and danger of early assignment looms.

TIA
You mean 170/160/150? As you move down on strikes, extrinsic increases so thats not a problem. the problem is when the stock drops, extrinsic drops so I wonder why you say 270/260/250.

1. When you short DITM puts, make sure it has a lot of open interests to decrease the odd of getting assigned early.

2. What is the risk of getting early assignment? Nothing major. There is a slight inconvenience from your cash disappearing and you stop earning interest on them or start paying interest if margin was used. There is no extra margin pressure or tax concern.

3. Add up the current stock price and the put premium. Subtract the strike price from that sum. The result will be the extrinsic.

4. If you wonder what the extrinsic will look like if the stock drops $20, look at a strike $20 higher and calculate its extrinsic. If you wonder what a 280p will look like if the stock drops from 190 to 170, look at a 300P.
 
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I definitely will NOT do a NVDA IC earnings week. I could definitely see a 25% swing. But I think I will play next week.... 👀

Would also love to know of other stocks that have nice premiums on a $30 wide spread, and have good volume....
It has nice premium because the risk associated warrants it. If you dont see the risk, you're just not looking hard enough.