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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
SebastienBonny
Member
Also rolled 02/23 220 -P to 04/19 220 -P for 4.5.
And rolled down 01/17 300 CC to 280 CC for 2.5ish.
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Did we come to a conclusion on whether max pain matters or not?
Today, looks like SPY is controlling, trying to break 500. I'm waiting for it to test it again and then sell calls for next week at 205
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
For TSLA or overall?
Overall, no question it matters, it’s just a function of how much, how often and random direct events or lack of event predictability.
Before there was NVDA, before there was TSLA (the original Mac daddy of derivative manipulation) there was AAPL. Over several years more than a decade ago i found that I could sell ever increasingly narrow IC within 1-1.3% of max pain closing price for regular expirations. This was long before 0DTE and even weekly expirations. Seasonal events like earnings, WWDC, even CES could impact things so I stayed away from those event horizons. But, it was a winning strategy WELL above 60% (I won’t put the actual number out there).
I’m surprised with this type of available data that @Yoona hasn’t already done something like this as at least as a back test thought exercise to test their internal H200’s. ;-)
But coming spot on or so close with such regularity is something that the machines certainly see, and take advantage of. Remember, being “the house” pretty much means you’re a seller or a seller more than half of the time.
Not quite 196.5 but the RSI did touch 70. The first time it touched 70 on the hourly timeframe from a bottom, TSLA always pulled back and consolidated for a few days.
i have mp raw data since 2021, dunno what to analyze yet
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Guess that 1-1.3% of max pain no longer hold true? Was thinking of the same but Tesla been straying quite far from MP lately. Maybe just for Tesla but not sure how it hold off for other stocks.
MM would have would have seen it miles aways and wouldnt make it that easy for the sellers now......IMO.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
As usual, did it routine morning pump then retrace (not quite a dump since it's still green).
Jim you there??
Jim you there??
Tesla's Tumultuous Turn - How A $80 Billion Vanishing Act And A Stubborn $200 Barrier Are Redefining Investor Confidence In 2024
Investors have been closely eyeing Tesla Inc's NASDAQ:TSLA recent financial performance, which has become a focal point. The electric vehicle giant reported a staggering $97 billion in revenue in 2023. However, with the arrival of 2024, a series of challenges have emerged, significantly impacting T…
www.tradingview.com
Tesla's Tumultuous Turn - How A $80 Billion Vanishing Act And A Stubborn $200 Barrier Are Redefining Investor Confidence In 2024
Feb 9, 202410:35 ESTKEY POINTS:
- In January 2024, Tesla's shares experienced a sharp 24% decline.
- The discrepancy in Tesla's Q4 earnings led to a loss of investor confidence, causing an 8% drop.
In January 2024, Tesla faced a pivotal moment as its shares took a sharp decline of over 24%. The primary cause of this downturn was the anticipation of weaker sales growth for the year. The impact of this decline was substantial, erasing approximately $80 billion from Tesla's market value.
Tesla's Q4 earnings release on January 24 added to the company's existing challenges. The earnings report disclosed that the actual earnings per share were $0.71, falling short of the estimated $0.74.
This seemingly small difference had a notable effect on investor confidence. Consequently, Tesla's stock price plummeted by 8% as trading commenced the following day. This resulted in the stock price dropping below $200. The last time the stock was at this level was in May 2023.
The Q4 earnings report has left Tesla's stock in a state of uncertainty and struggle, with consistent failure to recover beyond the $200 level. This particular price point seems to act as a psychological barrier, preventing the stock price from advancing forward.
The resistance level at $200 hints at a cautious stance on Tesla's stock. Should the stock be unable to break through, it could signal the possibility of additional declines.
After the closing bell on Thursday, February 8, the stock closed at $189.56, trading up by 1.06%.
Yeah, it’s not that it’s always 1-1.3 (and that reference was for AAPL) but that the predictability of the delta from MP on the closing Friday was predictable within that range. And again, that was AAPL. and frankly back at those times that WAS the difference between the MP target and the closing price. but for TSLA, now, what we’ve seen is an UNDERSHOOT of MP, but it’s been a predictable undershoot within X%.. Will one get an OVERSHOOT at some point - for sure. but the forward looking predictability is highly correlated if not causelated (that’s not a word)
I don't believe in MP.
a/ It's been unreliable for as long as I can remember.
b/ I have a stake in a bookie joint. As the house we don't want to gamble with the gamblers. MMs only manipulate the strike prices to drive the mass toward a state of delta neutral for them in order to make money on the spread. They're always hedged and even when they're not properly hedged, sooner or later the craze will die down and they'll make money off of late bulls/bears who are stupid enough to pay exorbitant premiums just before a reversal. No need to directly "fix" the SP and introduce more risks.
a/ It's been unreliable for as long as I can remember.
b/ I have a stake in a bookie joint. As the house we don't want to gamble with the gamblers. MMs only manipulate the strike prices to drive the mass toward a state of delta neutral for them in order to make money on the spread. They're always hedged and even when they're not properly hedged, sooner or later the craze will die down and they'll make money off of late bulls/bears who are stupid enough to pay exorbitant premiums just before a reversal. No need to directly "fix" the SP and introduce more risks.
It’s not a fix though, it’s a derivative of the derivatives..
BTC 50x 2/16 TSLA -p175 @$0.35 (+$3.95)
BTO 10x 7/19 NVDA +p600 @$31
STO 10x 2/23 NVDA -p695 @$28.1
Of course the moment I bought the NVDA puts, the SP shot up and kept going, so have been chasing those all afternoon, trying to get the same premium as the long sell, but gave up in the end... especially with SPY >500
End of the day $3 isn't going to make much difference...
BTO 10x 7/19 NVDA +p600 @$31
STO 10x 2/23 NVDA -p695 @$28.1
Of course the moment I bought the NVDA puts, the SP shot up and kept going, so have been chasing those all afternoon, trying to get the same premium as the long sell, but gave up in the end... especially with SPY >500
End of the day $3 isn't going to make much difference...
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