Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[elasalle]

finally AH, NVDA, SMCI divergence .... when does the free ride end .. ; )

when you buy, you can afford to be right 1/5th of the time ...
... buy 2$, 10 spread, max gain 1K .... so if you win 1 out of every 5 times ... you are even ...


I put a few +920/-910 PUT Long spread in play for tomorrow ... so let's see ...

 

[Max Plaid]

TSLA not even getting a small bounce today with the tech rally illustrates just how weak it has become. It’s laughable that Tesla is not considered enough of a tech company but unfortunately for shareholders, all of Tesla’s tech initiatives are many quarters away from being realized in the earnings.

I’m bullish on V12 progress and the progress it will make this year but Tesla’s stubbornness when it comes to their pricing model is killing adoption rates. They’re making it so FSD essentially needs to be perfect Level 5 in order for customers to be willing to pay $12k or $200 monthly. If they would just lower prices for the rest of 2024 especially on the monthly subscription rate, I think adoption rate would start an S curve and then as FSD reaches level 5 consistency, raise prices, especially the monthly price.

I fully understand Tesla might want FSD to get to a certain level of polish before really trying to make it mass appeal since you don’t want people to have a bad first experience or have negative publicity. They also might have other internal reasons. I’m simply pointing out that if Tesla (or should I say Tesla shareholders )wants to get that premium tech valuation in the next 3 quarters, that’s their path to it. There’s really nothing else that Tesla has that can force the narrative change on Wall St

They need to make FSD a personal licence, not linked to a specific car, I already paid for it for my previous Model X that I sold, never saw a trace of it. If it was licensed to me and not my car I'd pay for it again, right now

 

[Max Plaid]

how crazy is it? smci 6Δ 1dte gives me more income than tsla 6Δ 7dte

Yeah, but then it goes +35% in one day, so there's you answer

 

[ChiefRollo]

They need to make FSD a personal licence, not linked to a specific car, I already paid for it for my previous Model X that I sold, never saw a trace of it. If it was licensed to me and not my car I'd pay for it again, right now

I think this will be the way Tesla will handle it. It has been deemed internally as the “killer app” for Tesla vehicles and its ecosystem; as such, it’s quite natural to view it as an app…belonging to the account holder, not the device (PC, phone or vehicle).

I’m getting mine (that I paid $3k for) transferred to a new Tesla alongside FUSC.

 

[elasalle]

They need to make FSD a personal licence, not linked to a specific car, I already paid for it for my previous Model X that I sold, never saw a trace of it. If it was licensed to me and not my car I'd pay for it again, right now

Yearly depreciation with right to transfer residual value would be best option ... not sure why they got super greedy.
When you trade-in, the next customer could buy his own FSD ..

 

[thenewguy1979]

@dl003 have we fulfilled the recoil for the breakout?

 

[Max Plaid]

Missed all the fun today as I was plying a gig, and already setting up/sound-checking before market open, so just followed a bit on my watch

So my NVDA July +p600/weekly -p700 worked out, the -p700's are almost zero today, normally expire tomorrow. I could sell the +p600 for decent profit now, but intend to write weeklies against them. In fact I bought 10x more July +p600's when I got home, just before close, and will sell 10x weeklies -pATM to recreate that premium, my "safety-net" there being that I'll have 10x short contracts, but 20x longs, with 5 months to expire, so if it did reverse I'd have some wiggle-room - after today's big run up, a bit of profit-taking would be normal tomorrow for selling some short puts, or maybe it just pops another +15%...

Looking to get to 30x long puts to sell safe weeklies against, like $3 premium, something like that, will see

60x TSLA -c200 in play for tomorrow, looks like it will be held below 200, I see the c200 was up to 69k contracts at open today

 

[thenewguy1979]

finally AH, NVDA, SMCI divergence .... when does the free ride end .. ; )

I put a few +920/-910 PUT Long spread in play for tomorrow ... so let's see ...

The ride may end after we lost all our Money shorting it. The forces are still too strong with this one.

 

[juanmedina]

The ride may end after we lost all our Money shorting it. The forces are still too strong with this one.

Real money was made on the buy side....

It is hard for me to flip from shorting to buying.

 

[elasalle]

The ride may end after we lost all our Money shorting it. The forces are still too strong with this one.

same can be said for every trade ..
i'm not betting the farm, nibble here, nibble there - so far SMCI has been good to me ...cheers

+ buying $2 10$ spread, means you can be right one out of 5 times to be net even.

 

[dl003]

@dl003 have we fulfilled the recoil for the breakout?

I don't think so. Either down more or stretch out longer.

 

[intelligator]

Kind of odd to say, I closed a smci spread that I wasn't comfortable with overnight... -c1080, should have held on. Oh well. Took a loss but the proceeds from TSLA this week, yeah for a change, brings me to even. Fidelity made a few bucks in fees, no loss otherwise. Will see what I can sell for 7 DTE, can't sell for Friday on Friday, limited in .y account.

 

[Jim Holder]

What a difference 6 hours can make:



2/23 - Now
(Number of calls @$200 almost doubled)

2/23 - This morning:

 

[BornToFly]

Before scrubbing into surgery this morning I decided to get greedy and scalp some more money from my NVDA ICs, so I rolled in the call side to -850/+880, and the Puts to -650/+620 for tomorrow. Hopefully it doesn't rip all the way to 850 tomorrow....

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

They need to make FSD a personal licence, not linked to a specific car, I already paid for it for my previous Model X that I sold, never saw a trace of it. If it was licensed to me and not my car I'd pay for it again, right now

While Tesla should take care of those that have outright bought FSD, going forward I wish they would just offer the monthly subscription only and do away with the ability to buy it outright.

The subscription model is much better financially going forward especially as the fleet grows. It's why practically every software maker out there has switched from outright purchases to monthly subscriptions, even if those software suites had annual releases (like Office 1, 2, 3 etc. or Photoshop 2000, XS, etc..)

The longer Tesla goes without switching over completely to the subscription model the more money they're leaving on the table.

 

[jeewee3000]

While Tesla should take care of those that have outright bought FSD, going forward I wish they would just offer the monthly subscription only and do away with the ability to buy it outright.

The subscription model is much better financially going forward especially as the fleet grows. It's why practically every software maker out there has switched from outright purchases to monthly subscriptions, even if those software suites had annual releases (like Office 1, 2, 3 etc. or Photoshop 2000, XS, etc..)

The longer Tesla goes without switching over completely to the subscription model the more money they're leaving on the table.

Not so sure with the current state of FSD. As an EU based Tesla owner I bought FSD outright for 7.500 euros as a gamble that tesla would raise the price on it like in the US, but if i had to pay a monthly fee I'd wait until fsd beta traverses the pond. I'm guessing many europeans feel the same.

 

[Tachyon]

With all due respect
Penny wise, Pound foolish.

 

[thenewguy1979]

What a difference 6 hours can make:



2/23 - Now
(Number of calls @$200 almost doubled)

View attachment 1020915


2/23 - This morning:

View attachment 1020917

Many were expecting it to pump along with the Macro……..

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Not so sure with the current state of FSD. As an EU based Tesla owner I bought FSD outright for 7.500 euros as a gamble that tesla would raise the price on it like in the US, but if i had to pay a monthly fee I'd wait until fsd beta traverses the pond. I'm guessing many europeans feel the same.

The take rate of FSD purchases had dropped significantly over the past 4-5 quarters. There's not enough purchases of FSD on a quarterly basis at this rate to have any material impact on margins if those in territories where FSD isn't actually usable are then unable to purchase FSD.

Now combine that with the fact that the vast majority of Tesla's sold are 3/Y's on the lower end trims where those consumers will not, and cannot afford to, outright purchase FSD + interest rates being high. Ideally Tesla would do this change to monthly subscription only with a temporary monthly price reduction (like $99 for the rest of 2024) or allow consumers to purchase a years with of FSD at a discounted monthly rate if they agree to pay for FSD for the entire 12 months. There's many different ways to structure it.

As I mentioned in earlier post, you have to change consumer behavior when you're trying to introduce subscriptions into a consumer business that traditionally never had them.

Anyways, not to get this thread too off topic. Simply put if shareholders or Tesla want that tech/AI premium valuation, Tesla needs to introduce a SAAS business structure. FSD doesn't need to be perfect for Tesla to achieve a SAAS business structure. They can significantly increase their SAAS business by greatly increasing the monthly subscription price + other features additions when FSD does reach perfection.

 

[Tachyon]

The take rate of FSD purchases had dropped significantly over the past 4-5 quarters. There's not enough purchases of FSD on a quarterly basis at this rate to have any material impact on margins if those in territories where FSD isn't actually usable are then unable to purchase FSD.

Now combine that with the fact that the vast majority of Tesla's sold are 3/Y's on the lower end trims where those consumers will not, and cannot afford to, outright purchase FSD + interest rates being high. Ideally Tesla would do this change to monthly subscription only with a temporary monthly price reduction (like $99 for the rest of 2024) or allow consumers to purchase a years with of FSD at a discounted monthly rate if they agree to pay for FSD for the entire 12 months. There's many different ways to structure it.

As I mentioned in earlier post, you have to change consumer behavior when you're trying to introduce subscriptions into a consumer business that traditionally never had them.

Anyways, not to get this thread too off topic. Simply put if shareholders or Tesla want that tech/AI premium valuation, Tesla needs to introduce a SAAS business structure. FSD doesn't need to be perfect for Tesla to achieve a SAAS business structure. They can significantly increase their SAAS business by greatly increasing the monthly subscription price + other features additions when FSD does reach perfection.

Vanity is a pesky thing that keeps us from logical and pragmatic decisions .