Any thoughts about when it seems like a good deal to get some shares? At $150 we would be down 40% for the year, that seems like enough. At 50% we would be at $124 which seems farfetched IMO when Rivian said that will have zero growth for the year and they make no money and they are down 44%. I think I am going to start adding shares slowly very very soon and maybe also sell something like $150 December puts currently paying 11% return with a break even if $133.
@Knightshade any thoughts?
I don't think Rivians behavior tells us much useful about Tesla FWIW
I've honestly got more shares than I'd prefer right now- being stuck with an extra 1000 from like 8 weeks ago in puts I'd sold that went ITM, I've trimmed back the cost basis a bit selling CCs but stock keeps dropping faster than I can skim premium.
Really it depends what you're trying to accomplish, over what timeframe.... At $150 if you plan to hold for years till ATHs again or something I think that's a great buy.... OTOH at $150 if you plan to wait for a pop over 200 and take profits, long-dated calls might be a better plan..... (in both cases you can pick up some pennies along the way selling CCs against them too of course).
Selling the $150 puts isn't a terrible idea if you want to make some cash now but aren't super concerned about missing out on any big share rise in case we bounce from 160 (or 150.01) or something.
But how much are we bouncing this year, really- and when?
A lot of the TA folks seem convinced we're getting a bounce soon... they vary on how much (I think 300 was the highest one I've seen recently though I don't see how fundamentally?)
On the fundamental side that all seems crazy, given we're less than 3 weeks from awful PD numbers, which'll be followed by poor ER numbers (and likely an Elon telling us how everything sucks call same day)-- but then the stock does do crazy things.
I'm not your guy for TA though... in the fundamentals dept as I say all the news looks bad right now-- and I'm not sure I see that changing anytime soon?
Robots won't make $ this year
CT won't be financially relevant this year
Semi won't be financially relevant this year
Roadster won't be financially relevant this year (or even exist)
Next-gen car won't be financially relevant this year (or even exist)
Mexico factory, if they ever get around to building it, will only COST money this year
FSD I don't think will be financially significant this year (there may be a BIT of traction financially in the EU by Q4 at best- but then relys on regulators being swift which they rarely are there)
3/Y seem near saturation sales levels without huge further price cuts- growth of 10% or less seems entirely possible this year.
Insurance, from the last report, is still losing money.
Solar continues to be hilariously awful growth-wise
Energy is the only likely bright spot at all on the financials or growth side this year-- and it won't be near enough to counter the "busted growth story" news that'll keep coming out with single-digit YoY delivery gains.
Next year looks somewhat better--- Shanghai megapack plant starts making $, Semi might finally be made at a real factory in some volume, CT might be ramping well, and late in the year (hopefully) we get a next-gen unveil and production start.... But I still think it's 2026 before we start putting up eye-watering financials again as next-gen ramps.
Oh- and all of the above is
before considering any Elon-induced drama like SEC lawsuits, twitter garbage, comp-package threats, etc...That's always a giant wildcard in the mix at this point.
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