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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Stock should trade flats going up and down and up - till the big guy open his mouth. Then swing wildly up and down for 1st 10 minutes then follow the rate cut decision.
Based on historical trends not the crack from the doggy butt this times.
Closed out all my NVDA short puts when NVDA pump to 900 a while ago.
Waiting game now.......don't rush it.....just wait......
Based on historical trends not the crack from the doggy butt this times.
Closed out all my NVDA short puts when NVDA pump to 900 a while ago.
Waiting game now.......don't rush it.....just wait......
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Since Tesla told us on the Q1 call 4680s were not the bottleneck for the CT ramp at this point I'm not sure if they're super useful info in the short term? If anything the fact they told us the weekly cell rate but not the weekly truck rate is sus.
Either way though we already know CT won't be financially material to Tesla this year so probably not super relevant unless one is looking far forward- especially to the point where they eventually have enough 4680 for max CT production and extra to put back into Ys (freeing up 2170s for 3 to get the IRA credit back)... which is still at least a year optimistically.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
bmd00
Member
Looking back at the start of several of the last rallies, we can see SP finds support along the 0.382, 0.5, or 0.618 fib retracement. Most recently, the 0.618 has been the key retracement level. I watch for strong candle setups around these levels, like hammers, engulfing, or a 1hr reversal candles.
On Feb 13th, 2024 SP found support at the end of the day along the 0.618 retracement and formed a strong engulfing candle in the last hour.
On Nov 10th, 2023 SP found support early that morning along the 0.618 forming an engulfing candle.
Here's May 2023. SP found support along the 0.5 fib retracement on May 2nd. SP made a hammer in the last hour of the day. The strong opening and engulfing candle on the 3rd was confirmation.
This does not mean that SP will emulate any of these past rallies. In fact, I think this rally may be more of a small bounce and could actually be very short lived. However, I am using this past data as references for the current rally to help determine when the next push higher could come and what intraday levels to watch for support. As we get more data from the chart we'll have a better understanding of what is to come.
On Feb 13th, 2024 SP found support at the end of the day along the 0.618 retracement and formed a strong engulfing candle in the last hour.
On Nov 10th, 2023 SP found support early that morning along the 0.618 forming an engulfing candle.
Here's May 2023. SP found support along the 0.5 fib retracement on May 2nd. SP made a hammer in the last hour of the day. The strong opening and engulfing candle on the 3rd was confirmation.
This does not mean that SP will emulate any of these past rallies. In fact, I think this rally may be more of a small bounce and could actually be very short lived. However, I am using this past data as references for the current rally to help determine when the next push higher could come and what intraday levels to watch for support. As we get more data from the chart we'll have a better understanding of what is to come.
Can anyone share how high IV goes on avg. the days leading into P&D?
I'm asking since I bought a handful of +P150 4/26 @4.80 (seems a bit early, it's trading @3.40 now) and looking at the OptionStrat plot it seems to need a deep retracement (~$160) to have any gains at 55% IV. But at IV 75% or so it looks a lot better. Trying to decide if to cut now or hold.
+P150 4/26 @ IV 55%:
+P150 4/26 @ IV 75%:
Link to the plot:
https://optionstrat.com/pFuF3YGkGdmk
I'm asking since I bought a handful of +P150 4/26 @4.80 (seems a bit early, it's trading @3.40 now) and looking at the OptionStrat plot it seems to need a deep retracement (~$160) to have any gains at 55% IV. But at IV 75% or so it looks a lot better. Trying to decide if to cut now or hold.
+P150 4/26 @ IV 55%:
+P150 4/26 @ IV 75%:
Link to the plot:
https://optionstrat.com/pFuF3YGkGdmk
Last edited:
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Good or bad idea?
Selling BPS at resistant 185, then using the premium to ride any potential downside. Worse case lose both premium and cost of BPS, but most likely break even at zero cost if SP below 185 by next Friday. But free ride if we do have a rug pull.
Selling BPS at resistant 185, then using the premium to ride any potential downside. Worse case lose both premium and cost of BPS, but most likely break even at zero cost if SP below 185 by next Friday. But free ride if we do have a rug pull.
Took some massive profits on 3/28 +p200s and rolled some of them into 3/22 +p170s and +p172.5s with a doubled position size. Basically hedging against a counterintuitive upward reaction to the FOMC presser (10-year rates have gone up quite a bit the last couple weeks, so maybe the market has priced in "higher for longer"), while preserving exposure to a downside move. Looking to roll up or close my last 3/22 -c180s for the same reason.
Will look to re-open +p positions expiring in April on any significant upward moves today.
Will look to re-open +p positions expiring in April on any significant upward moves today.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
I have not read any comment since yesterday yet and wanted to first make clear that my bullishness has now very much faded, because of the lack of momentum up, after such a huge downfall. So I think the worst has yet to come on another, significally lower low. Only a multiday steep incline can make me think different. I recognize, there could be a delay and the steep rise could also be from this position but I totally miss the bullish voluminous continuation, so I am out again with a little profit.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
I hope you can relax this time (if my fears above will come true soon enough)
TSLA being capped at 175 despite Nasdaq continuing to move higher. Seems like there's clear intent to cap this thing to under 175 by Friday.
I have 110X 2+ year old BPS that I had rolled to 4/12 at +170/-195. I'm selling 100X aggressive CCs to raise premium to finally close them out, or to raise premium so that I can let the shares go, sell the +170P, and take assignment on the -195P (hopefully after a rolling a bit to milk more premium) to get the shares back.
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